by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 6 - 4 - 1/1A
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   2 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 5:   6 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 6:   1 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 7:   2 - 10 - 1 - 5
Race 8:   8 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 9:   8 - 4 - 1 - 6

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: LEAP TO GLORY (#1)
At first glance, Take Your Place seems almost unbeatable as he attempts to win his second straight race at the same $40,000 conditioned claiming level. While he was game to hang on for the victory last time, there’s no doubt that runner-up Felix in Fabula ran the superior race after making a wide, premature move on the far turn. The pace-adjusted TimeformUS Speed Figure for that race is a modest 101, due to the fact that they were moving at such a slow clip in the early going. This horse can win again if he repeats any of his recent performances for the John Toscano barn, but there are a number of rivals in this field who are just as capable. Rudy Rodriguez has entered two. Mad Munnys should take more money with Manny Franco named, but Bootlegger actually ran the better race last time after chasing a fast pace. I’ll use both of them, but my top pick is Leap to Glory. This horse figures to get somewhat ignored in the wagering after losing a weak New York-bred allowance race last time. However, he did not get the right trip that day. Rajiv Maragh seemed reluctant to engage another speed horse and ended up losing valuable early position heading into the far turn. Leap to Glory actually did well to rally for third considering that he’s a horse who has struggled to close in prior starts. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runner, so Maragh must make better use of his early speed. If he runs back to his winning effort two back, I think he can pull off the upset.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,6
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with ALL
 

RACE 5: MOVIE SCORE (#6)
Takecharge Mirella and Nancysaidso figure to vie for favoritism in this spot. Takecharge Mirella is getting some needed class relief as she drops in for the $75,000 optional claiming tag following a series of disappointing performances against stakes company. A couple of those races have come at distances beyond 6 furlongs, so she may appreciate the slight cutback in trip this time. Nevertheless, her speed figures have plateaued, and I believe there are others in this field with greater upside. Between the favorites, I prefer Nancysaidso. This filly never ran a particularly fast race in Florida during her 2-year-old season, but she did keep solid company in a few of those races. Her running lines are dotted with names like Bye Bye J, Catherinethegreat, and Cookie Dough, all of whom have since gone on to compete in graded stakes. Now she’s making her first start off a private purchase and trainer switch to Jason Servis, who has fantastic numbers in this situation. If she steps forward for the new barn, she could be a handful in this spot. I’m using both of these fillies, but I think there’s a viable win candidate who may get somewhat ignored in the wagering. Movie Score earned the highest TimeformUS Speed Figure of any runner in this field when she finished third in a similar spot at the end of December. She was sent off at even-money in her next start and finished a disappointing fifth. However, she may have some excuses that day. She was making her first start in blinkers, and that equipment comes off today. Furthermore, she broke tardily and had to rush up while racing wide over a surface that appeared to favor horses that rode the rail. Some may be deterred by the fact that she’s been claimed away from Rudy Rodriguez, but Jimmy Ryerson does a good job with his claims. It’s a good sign that Manny Franco keeps the mount for these connections, and I like that she’s one of the few fillies not entered for the tag.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 2,4
 

RACE 7: PLAYWRIGHT (#2)
Big Gemmy could go off as the slight favorite as he makes his first start against New York-bred company since losing by a nose in the Sleepy Hollow Stakes as a 2-year-old. It’s been a mixed bag of disappointing results over a variety of distances and surfaces in open company since then. While he should appreciate the return to the New York-bred ranks, this N1X New York-bred allowance field is above average in terms of quality. New trainer Linda Rice has good numbers off trainer switches in dirt sprints, and this colt should appreciate the slight turnback to 7 furlongs. However, he still needs to show up with a top effort in order to win. One of the more intriguing rivals for the favorite is the returning Real Dan. This gelding made his winning debut over a year ago and has not been seen since. While he would have to run faster to beat this field, Todd Pletcher has an excellent record in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 7 for 15 (47 percent, $2.37 ROI) with debut winners making their second starts off layoffs of 180 days or more on dirt. I’m using both of these contenders prominently, but my top pick is Playwright. This 6-year-old gelding has been in the best form of his career for Danny Gargan ever since last fall and I think he fits very well against this field as he makes his first start against New York-bred foes since early 2018. His runner-up finish on Nov. 11 was much stronger than it appears, since he clipped heels and stumbled while in midst of his rally on the far turn. He caught sloppy tracks in both starts since then, winning once and finishing a disappointing fourth last time. Something may have happened in that most recent start, since he was sluggish early and could never muster a rally. Danny Gargan has given him a brief layoff since then and I think it’s a good sign that he’s bringing him back in a protected spot.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,10
Trifecta: 2 with 1,10 with 1,4,5,10
 

RACE 8: STORM RISING (#8)
Out of Orbit owns the fastest set of speed figures and is obviously coming into this race in top form. She’s the filly to beat, but I think she may be overbet out of her most recent victory. While it was no surprise that she won as the even-money favorite, she benefited from a strong rail bias in that gate-to-wire score. She handles a mile, but I prefer her going slightly shorter than this, and I don’t think she’s quite as likely to win as her odds may indicate. Her biggest threat appears to be Storm Rising, who is my top selection. It took this 4-year-old filly a long time to get to the races, but she was certainly impressive in her debut at Tampa Bay Downs last time. She was bumped coming away from the start that day and found herself 2 to 3 lengths off the pace in the opening strides. Yet, after those tense opening moments, she showed no signs of vulnerability as she confidently ran past the entire field on the backstretch and strolled to an impressive score. While it’s unclear if she would have run faster had she been ridden out, she was certainly hindered by the poor start. Christophe Clement stretches her out in distance for her second start, and she’s certainly bred to handle the added ground as a half-sister to graded stakes winning router American Lion. If she steps forward out of that debut, I think she can stay undefeated in her second start. At a bigger price, I also want to use Pink Twist. I’m willing to excuse her poor effort in the Bay Ridge last time, since she didn’t get an ideal trip and just doesn’t want to go that far. She’s back at her best distance actually beat today’s favorite as recently as December.

Win: 8
Exacta Box: 7,8
Trifecta: 8 with 6,7 with 1,2,3,6,7