by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 4: 8 - 7 - 2 - 9
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 6: 1 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 7 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 9: 8 - 7 - 1 - 2
RACE 3: DESERT AFFAIR (#2)
This race could really give you a headache. Merely finding the likely favorite or a “horse to beat” is a struggle given that every single runner is coming off poor performances. I suppose that Sand City will take some money based on her efforts in November and December, but her form has completely fallen apart since then. Classic Stones has never run a particularly fast race, but I suppose her early speed makes her dangerous. Our Whim has a similar profile to Sand City, as she produced decent efforts last year but has disappointed in two 2018 starts. I can’t bring myself to take one of the short prices here, so I’m taking a shot against them with Desert Affair. The truth of the matter is that I picked this filly last Sunday, and I feel obligated to bet her back here given that she’s landing in a far easier spot. I don’t dispute that she didn’t run well on Mar. 18, but I also don’t think she was given much of a chance. Breaking from the rail, she appeared to almost duck into the gap by the chute coming out of the gate and found herself far back thereafter. Her rider made little to no effort to motivate her at any point and she trailed throughout. This time, I’m confident that the apprentice named on her will at least try to get a piece of it. Desert Affair was running competitive races as recently as January and February, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility that she could win this.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,5
RACE 6: BAR NONE (#1)
Fielding Gold is likely to go off as the favorite and he does appear to be a very strong contender in this race. He has been running some of the fastest recent speed figures among this group, and now he’s making his first start off the claim by Brad Cox. The barn does very well in this situation, and this horse clearly relishes today’s conditions. I’m using him, but there are a few others to consider. One that should go off at a slightly better price is Bar None, who also makes his first start off the claim. Rudy Rodriguez took this horse out of his last start, a sprint. That was his fifth consecutive start over a wet track, and he doesn’t necessarily appreciate that kind of going. He’s going to get back on a fast surface here, and Rudy has excellent numbers off the claim. Over the past five years, he is 36 for 88 (41 percent, $2.79 ROI) first off the claim with horses running back in dirt routes off rest of 60 days or less. I find it encouraging that Bar None had run races that would make him competitive here when previously under David Jacobson’s care. Others that merit consideration are Nigel’s Destiny and American Road. However, I’m somewhat against. Nigel’s Destiny is taking a negative drop in class off a dismal performance in his return, and American Road beat a very weak field when winning last time.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,7
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 2,4,6,8
RACE 7: SPLIT VERDICT (#4)
I see three main contenders in this one-mile maiden race. Road to Meath has already gone the distance, and ran fairly well when last seen doing just that on Nov. 23. He was aided by an honest early pace, but he did briefly have to wait for room at the quarter pole before finding a clear path inside. This horse may win at a short price, but I haven’t been thrilled by any of his races. Therefore, I prefer the two second-time starters. If you’re playing trainer stats, Ballard High is the one that you want. Over the past five years, Linda Rice is 8 for 20 (40 percent, $2.71 ROI) with second-time starting maidens going from sprints to routes on the dirt. This horse figures to step forward with added ground as a son of Flat Out, but he will have to improve on his relatively lackluster debut, in which he broke slowly and showed some mild late interest. I’m using him, but the horse that really interests me is Split Verdict. Unlike Linda Rice, Rick Violette does not have strong numbers with second-time starters. Compared to his record with firsters, his statistics with these types of runners are decidedly subpar. However, I think Split Verdict could be the exception. Unlike most Violette firsters, this horse ran like one that would benefit from his debut. He broke a bit slowly and raced greenly at the back of the pack for most of the race. Once steered into the clear in the lane by Kendrick Carmouche, he actually started running, finishing third before galloping-out very strongly after the wire. He’s been working well since that race and he appears to be one that would appreciate the stretch-out to a mile.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5
RACE 8: SHAMROCK ROSE (#7)
Strategic Dreams is clearly the horse to beat for Rudy Rodriguez, who has three entrants in this Cicada. She comes into this race off three straight wins, including two stakes. While she possesses a versatile running style, she’s obviously comfortable passing horses and has used closing tactics in each of her last two starts. That should be a real asset in a race that features a fair amount of early speed. One of her main rivals looks to be her stablemate, Lezendary. This filly broke her maiden last time out with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure, one of the fastest numbers earned by any horse in this race. While that performance may be legitimate, she’s now stepping up into a much tougher spot. I wasn’t visually impressed by that last win as she had to be ridden hard to pull away from the inferior Warrior of Light in the late stages. I prefer others that figure to offer better value. The horse that I want to bet is Shamrock Rose. She made her dirt debut last time in the Busher and put forth a solid effort to be fourth behind the Kentucky Oaks-bound Midnight Disguise. She never looked like the winner, but I thought she fought on gamely to the wire in a tough race. She won her debut sprinting against stakes company and has been losing ground at the end of her route attempts in three subsequent starts, so this turnback in distance may actually suit her.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,5,6