PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   6 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 5:   4 - 2 - 1A - 5
Race 6:   1 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 8 - 1
Race 8:   7 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 9:   8 - 3 - 7 - 6

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 4

I don’t want to default to likely favorite Truculent (#7) at a short price, as he drops back down to this $10k level. I didn’t think he had much of an excuse to lose as the heavy favorite two back when getting a great trip riding an advantageous rail path. Then last time he seemed to regress against tougher competition. The drop in class helps, but I’m not sure that the added ground of this 9-furlong test suits him. I want to find some alternative, and the best one I can come up with is Goldini (#6). This horse has some issues with consistency, but he’s run well enough to compete at this level on occasion. He put in a poor effort going this distance two back, but the margin of defeat was exaggerated since he got eased in the lane. He had previously won going this far in December, and seemed to take a step in the right direction off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez last time. That recent effort is better than it looks since he was wide against a rail bias. He gets a rider upgrade to Manny Franco and the price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#6 GOLDINI, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6

There’s little doubt that Flamingo Hawk (#3) will crush this field if he shows up with one of his good efforts. Yet that seems unlikely as he returns from a layoff and drops down to this $20k level. He was running speed figures last summer that suggested he might have stakes in his future, and he just hasn’t panned out for the new connections. I suppose he’ll take money here, and I’m skeptical of his chances. Some pace scratched out of this race, which helps a horse like Heir Port (#6) and potentially hurts my top two picks, even though I still think they could offer fair value. Caerus (#7) makes sense on the turnback in distance. He ran a competitive race at this level when he won on Jan. 19, and subsequently has been placed in some tougher spots. He wanted no part of 9 furlongs last time, and this is a more appropriate distance. My top pick is F F Rocket (#1). He was compromised by a slow pace in that Feb. 12 affair when last seen, and actually did well to stay on for fifth. His form looks worse than it is due to some lackluster efforts on wet tracks, which he doesn’t prefer. Yet he ran well prior to that, and seemed to get back on track last time. He returns from a vet scratch earlier this month showing a solid recent workout, and he possesses better tactical speed than Caerus.

Fair Value:
#1 F F ROCKET, at 4-1 or greater
#7 CAERUS, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7

I acknowledge that both morning-line favorites can win this starter allowance, but I didn’t want to endorse either one at short prices. Victorious Wave (#8) put in a decent effort at this level last time, but I didn’t think he had much of an excuse to lose after having dead aim at the leaders in upper stretch. He ultimately wore them down, but was passed from behind late. He might do better in his second start for Rob Atras, but is unlikely to be an enticing price. Win for Gold (#1) is a little less trustworthy to me, even though he won impressively last time. He’s the sort of horse that can beat up on inferior competition, but he’s often exposed at higher levels. He might be under the gun breaking from the rail with speed, and he is a horse who has a tendency to shut down late in his races, so I’m somewhat worried about the 6 1/2 furlong distance. I think there are two alternative options at better prices. Big Venezuela (#2) has generally competed over longer distances than this, but I have been encouraged by both of his 7-furlong efforts this winter, so perhaps shorter is better. He did well to chase a fast pace three back before tiring, and two back made a nice run for second at this level. In both of those races he earned triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figures, which make him one of the fastest horses in this field. He faded late last time, but was setting an honest pace and drifted wide off a good rail in the stretch. He has speed, but doesn’t need to be ridden so aggressively. I would also consider Midnight Worker (#6) at a bigger price. He finished fourth in that same Feb. 18 race that Big Venezuela exits, making a menacing move to mid-stretch before flattening out. He also ran well last time over a shorter distance and just appears to be in strong form right now. He doesn’t tend to take that much money, but is drawn well outside of his main pace rivals.

Fair Value:
#2 BIG VENEZUELA, at 4-1 or greater
#6 MIDNIGHT WORKER, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8

Horses like Tempermental (#3) and Royal Currency (#5) could vie for favoritism in this New York-bred N1X allowance. It is a fairly weak race for the level, so perhaps they’ve just found the right field. Yet I have some questions about both of them. Tempermental’s lack of early speed could be a problem in a race where the pace looks a little murky, and she’s gotten perfect trips in her last couple of starts. Royal Currency ran well at this level two back, but it’s come back as a pretty soft race. Then last time she was beaten by today’s rival Fancy Feline, so I’m wondering if she’s heading in the wrong direction since returning from the layoff in raging form. I’m most interested in two runners. The more logical one is Try It Again (#1), who exits a game performance first off the claim for new connections last time. She was returning in just 6 days, so the concern is that she was running off the Mike Maker barn’s conditioning. Yet Marcelo Arenas generally does a good job with his limited stock, and she looks like the main speed from her inside draw. My top pick is Saratoga Gaze (#7), who obviously has some things to prove as she tries dirt for the first time. There are some positive stats around this horse for Mark Hennig, who is having a great meet. He does great work for Windylea Farm, going 16 for 69 (23%, $2.75 ROI) for this owner at Aqueduct over the past 3 years. Hennig is also 6 for 17 (35%, $4.28 ROI) first off a trainer switch over the past 5 years. The big question with this mare is the switch to dirt, and on the surface of things her pedigree does look more turf oriented. Yet she’s by dirt influence Laoban, whereas many of this dam’s other foals are by turf sires. She doesn’t strike me as a one-dimensional turf type, and her early speed should play well here. I think she’s interesting, but could easily be convinced to hop over to Try It Again if this one isn’t a fair price.

Fair Value:
#7 SARATOGA GAZE, at 4-1 or greater
#1 TRY IT AGAIN, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9

From a TimeformUS Speed Figure perspective, Refuah (#3) is a standout in this field. He has earned numbers ranging from 83 to 91 in his last four starts, and most of his rivals have struggled to ever run that fast. The problem is that he’s shown some aversion to winning races. This 11-start maiden has looked formidable on paper before and disappointed. He’s settled for second at short prices in each of his last two starts, and has been the runner-up in more than half of his career starts. Perhaps he’s just finally found a field he can’t help but defeat, but you’re going to have to swallow a pretty short price on a horse that has let down the bettors before. Many handicappers will turn to Miracle Mike (#1) as the alternative. After all, he did earn a competitive 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his career debut last summer as a 2-year-old. The problem is that he rode a good rail on that occasion, racing over a sloppy track. His two subsequent starts on fast going have been poor, and he was concerningly dull off the layoff last time. He’s now stretching out to a mile for the first time, and distance should suit him. I’m just a little concerned that he’s never going to run back to that debut effort. My top pick is Olympic Dreams (#8). This well-bred gelding showed nothing in his lone start last year, which came on turf. Yet he has since returned as an improved horse this year, switching into the barn of Pat Quick and moving to the main track. He showed some signs of life in his January return, overcoming a wide journey to stay on for fourth, 10 lengths behind Refuah. He got a little closer to that rival last time when improving to third at this level, making a mild move on the turn before again staying on best of all in the lane. He may appreciate finally getting on a fast track if the weather dries out by Sunday. He also has a chance to produce his best form yet as he meets a slightly weaker field, and makes his third start off the layoff.

Fair Value:
#8 OLYMPIC DREAMS, at 3-1 or greater