PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 3 - 4 - 9
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 3:   7 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 4:   1 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   3 - 8 - 2 - 4
Race 6:   1 - 8 - 7 - 5
Race 7:   2 - 7 - 1A - 5
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 9:   7 - 4 - 1A - 3

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses to consider for vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 4: MANDATORY (#1)

The enigma in this race is likely favorite #3 Jerry the Nipper. While he’s never faced open company before, he was running speed figures against New York-breds when last seen that would make him very competitive against this field. The problem is that we haven’t seen him in nearly 15 months. The good news is that he’s moving up in class in the return from a layoff, and Todd Pletcher has pretty solid statistics with horses like this. However, I’m reticent to take a short price on runners like this, especially in a race where there are some other viable options. #5 Full Court Press is similarly difficult to trust as he returns from a layoff. He ran very well when last seen in September at this level. However, I never like when horses put in the best efforts of their career and then go to the shelf for a long time. I’m most interested in a couple of bigger prices. One of those is #7 Chowda. He’s coming off a poor effort, but that was a tougher spot at this level. He also was racing a little too close to the worst part of the racetrack, as the rail was deadly on Feb. 5. His prior form was solid and he has the tactical speed to work out a good trip from his outside draw. My top pick is #1 Mandatory. Some may be reluctant to endorse a horse moving up out of the maiden ranks after taking 9 tries to graduate. However, he met some pretty strong rivals in those races, and has earned speed figure in his last four dirt races that put him right in line with the favorite in this spot. He finished gamely to hold off favored Rational Choice last time, and that rival returned to break his maiden nicely last week. Mandatory has the tactical speed to be prominent and the one-turn mile is a perfect distance for him.

WIN: #1 Mandatory, at 9-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #7 Chowda, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 6: BOURBON BAY (#1)

#5 Its All Relevant could go favored in this spot as he drops in class out of a tougher $40k spot into this $25k claimer. His primary appeal is his ample early speed, since there’s a distinct shortage of that in this field. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be loose on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. That could indeed make him dangerous on the class drop. Yet I find him to be an untrustworthy short price off his last effort. He also had a pace advantage that day and could make nothing of it. He got nursed along early through slow fractions and gave up with no fight. The rivals here aren’t quite as strong as those who beat him last time, but it’s not as big a class drop as the price tags might indicate. The TimeformUS Race Rating for this race is just 1 point lower than last time. The two logical alternatives are #7 Easy Shot and #8 Dark Storm. The problem with both of them is that they possess very little early speed. Dark Strom has the better overall form, and now he’s making his first start off the claim for Rob Atras. His last race leaves something to be desired, but he’s obviously dangerous if he can get back on track. Easy Shot comes off a victory in which he got a great trip. Though he beat a solid field that day and is a win candidate right back if he repeats that effort. They’re both usable, but I actually prefer a different horse out of the race Easy Shot exits. #1 Bourbon Bay checked in fourth that day, but he didn’t get the most comfortable trip. He was unwisely sent up to contest the pace in the early going in a spot where five horses were vying for early supremacy. He eventually had to back out of that pace duel and wound up getting shuffled out of position down the backstretch and into the turn. He actually still launched a nice run to get back into contention once called upon before flattening out late. I think he showed subtle improvement off the claim for Antonio Arriaga. He also possesses more tactical speed than some other contenders, so he could get the jump on them if Its All Relevant comes back to the field.

WIN: #1 Bourbon Bay, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 7,8

RACE 8: STONE CREATOR (#3)

#5 Yo Cuz is obviously the horse to beat at a very short price in this East View Stakes. She’s facing a field of similar quality to last time and her main rival appears to be a filly, Stone Creator, who she’s already defeated by over 3 lengths. So what could prompt a turning of the tables today? Yo Cuz has enjoyed uncontested early leads in each of her last two victories. While she hasn’t set slow paces by any means, she’s been clearly in front every step of the way with no serious early challengers. That’s likely to change this time with faster sprinters like #1 Silver Fist and #4 Sandy’s Garden in the field. They’re both quick enough to get in front of Yo Cuz early, so she probably finds herself in a stalking position this time. Perhaps she adapts to that style with no issue, but I’m willing to downgrade her slightly at a short price. I’m going with #3 Stone Creator to reverse the decision from last time. While she was no match for Yo Cuz that day, I thought she stayed on very gamely to be second, losing no ground through the final furlong. I viewed that performance as a real step forward out of her debut, in which she was aided by a track bias. She doesn’t seem like one that needs the lead to be successful, so she should work out a perfect trip sitting just in behind those three speed runners. Charlton Baker is having a strong meet and this filly clearly has upside. I pegged her at 2-1 on the morning line, but I would like to see her drift higher than that, especially if the public really hammers Yo Cuz.

WIN: #3 Stone Creator, at 5-2 or greater