by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 4: 5 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 7 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 3 - 2 - 1
RACE 3: ARISTOCRATIC (#5)
Following the scratch of Malibu Action, Happy Farm figures to be a solid favorite in this third race as he makes his first start off the claim for Jeremiah Englehart. It’s not as if this horse needs to improve at all off the barn change, as he has run well in all of his recent races. The only knock against his recent form is that he has been short prices on a number of occasions and has failed to find his way into the winner’s circle. I think it’s somewhat curious that Englehart is not moving this horse up in class at all despite his solid form, and I believe it’s worth keeping in mind that he does not have the strongest numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is just 5 for 49 (10%, $1.14 ROI) first off the claim on dirt at Aqueduct. (Alternately, he’s 11 for 43 at the other two NYRA tracks.) I'm using him, but my top pick is Aristocratic. This horse ran deceptively well in his first start for the Chris Englehart barn last time out. He had run some fast races earlier in 2018 for the Victor Garcia barn, but he seemed to go off form for Peter Miller. His final race in December hinted that he was heading back in the right direction and I thought he took a gigantic step forward in his most recent start at Aqueduct. He was facing a tougher group of horses and carved out some insane early fractions over a dead racetrack. His TimeformUS pace rating of 155 at the quarter is gigantic for a six-furlong race, so it’s no surprise that his TimeformUS Speed Figure was elevated to a 118 off a raw final time number of 101. It’s somewhat curious that he’s dropping down in class off such a performance, but a repeat of that effort makes him a serious rival for the favorites.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6
Trifecta: 5 with 3 with ALL
RACE 5: FIRST FOREVER (#5)
I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite First Forever for Linda Rice. This barn has a fantastic record with second-time starting maidens and this filly is exactly the type of runner that Rice gets to improve off its debut. First Forever was soundly beaten as the favorite first time out, but she actually ran much better than it appears. Feb. 3 was a day that featured as strong a rail bias as we’ve seen during the entire Aqueduct meet, and First Forever got an incredibly disadvantageous three- to four-wide trip for the whole race. To illustrate how much horses can improve out of such situations, fourth-place finisher Alphadora, who was not even as wide as First Forever through the second half of the race, returned to run a very good second with a significantly faster speed figure in her subsequent start. This filly has a lot more ability than it appears and I’m not trying to pick against her. Others that I would include in exotic wagers are the pair of first-time starters, Lookbothways and Sarahrini. The former has some pedigree to be a decent sprinter as she debuts for Bruce Levine, whereas the latter sports some fast drills for Gary Sciacca.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 2,4,6
RACE 7: REED KAN (#7)
Win With Pride is a formidable favorite in this spot. He’s won 4 of his last 5 starts and possesses a running style that would appear to fit this race quite well. There is a fair amount of early speed signed on, and Win With Pride should be sitting right in behind the early leaders, waiting to pounce. While one might assume that he’s dropping in class as he moves into starter allowance company, this race actually drew a very competitive field for the level. Win With Pride is the horse to beat, but he’s going to need to produce a top effort in order to come away with the victory. A couple of Rudy Rodriguez runners are posted just to his outside and both must be respected. Tribecca has experienced a resurgence in recent weeks after going off form last fall. A pair of aggressive rides by Manny Franco have helped make the difference, as he won in gate-to-wire fashion two back and then outran a slow-breaking Bavaro to the lead in the Hollie Hughes last time. A repeat of either of those efforts makes him a player here, but he’s going to be a relatively short price, and I actually prefer his stablemate Royal Asset. This 7-year-old’s two most recent performances have been lackluster, but he’s had some excuses. He was overmatched against the likes of Honor Up and Syndergaard two back, and then last time he was forced to chase 3-wide against a gold rail. I won’t be surprised if he bounces back with a top effort here, but I’m somewhat concerned that he isn’t fast enough to make the lead with other speeds signed on. I’ll use both of these Rudy horses in some capacity, but my top pick is Reed Kan. This 4-year-old may be the fastest of all in the early going. It’s difficult to claim horses from Jason Servis, but Mertkan Kantarmaci has actually done quite well with this runner in two starts since being taken from that barn. He put forth a huge effort against claiming foes on Dec. 13 and then wheeled back in just 3 weeks to run a deceptively strong fourth in a very tough optional claiming event. All of the horses who finished ahead of him that day would be favored in a spot like this, and Reed Kan had to be hard-used to make the lead that day over a surface that he didn’t appear to relish. His two most recent TimeformUS Speed Figures of 118 and 113 indicate that he is arguably the fastest horse in this field, and I like that he’s coming into this race as a fresh horse. Apprentice Benjamin Hernandez has ridden him aggressively, and I expect him to try to lead this field from gate to wire. At a much bigger price, I would also throw No Distortion into the exotics. This horse ran extremely well within the context of his last race and is an intriguing claim by Bob Dunham.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,5
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 2,3,5,6
RACE 8: KINGDOM’S QUEEN (#7)
I found this to be one of the most confusing races on the entire card. Science Fiction has to be considered the horse to beat, especially given the pace scenario. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and she is going to be in front of this field early assuming she breaks cleanly. However, I’m not thrilled with taking this mare at a very short price. The reality of Science Fiction’s recent improvement is that she has found herself in very favorable situations against weak fields. This step up to N1X allowance company is significant and I’m not confident that she really wants to go the seven furlongs of this race. I’m using her defensively, but I think we can get a little more creative. I would consider a horse like Summer Punch, who was somewhat against the track last time when overmatched against the improved Bluegrass Jamboree. Her prior form makes her dangerous, and she shouldn’t be that far off the early pace. No Deal is a runner that many will consider off her runner-up effort behind Big Birthday, but I have some doubts about the overall quality of that race. I prefer the pair of runners that are turning back in distance out of the first race on Feb. 3. New Year’s Wish dominated that race on the front end while very much with the grain of that rail-biased track. I thought both Norma’s Charm and Kingdom’s Queen ran deceptively well under the circumstances. Norma’s Charm is the more logical of the two given her solid sprint form through 2018, but she’s somewhat hard to take given her 1-for-23 career tally. I’m instead taking a shot with Kingdom’s Queen. I know she looks a little slow based on her Beyers, but I put some stock in the 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned two back. That figure makes plenty of sense for the other runners in the field, and Kingdom’s Queen appeared to run a career-best effort that day. I won’t be too hard on her for subsequent performance against winners since that race did not play to her closing style. I’m pretty intrigued by the turnback to seven furlongs for this improving filly, since her female family is sprint-oriented. She’s related to horses like Mr. Gruff, Vision Perfect, and Have Another, who all excelled over sprint distances. I’m hoping that new rider Jose Lezcano can get her involved in the race a bit earlier, as Manny Franco was able to do two back. I know she needs some things to go her way, but I don’t think there’s much of a gap between the favorites and the bigger prices in this field, and this filly will certainly fall into the latter category.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,5