by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 2 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 4 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 7: 7 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 9 - 6
Race 9: 5 - 2 - 9 - 4
RACE 4: LAUGHING MANNERS (#2)
If Red Zinger repeats his 2-year-old performances, he is very likely to win this race. After debuting in a stakes, he showed up with a pair of solid efforts at Saratoga, finishing just behind the classy Just Right. The speed figures he earned back in August 2018 are still the highest numbers in this field, and most horses improve as they mature into 3-year-olds. Gary Contessa does not have the strongest numbers off layoffs of this type, but I still think this horse deserves respect. I prefer him to the other runner likely to attract support, Daring Disguise. This colt ran deceptively well in his debut, closing to be third over a speed-favoring track. However, he failed to show up with a competitive effort in his second start and now Linda Rice cuts him back in distance. This horse gives the impression that more ground would be to his liking, so I’m not totally convinced that a turnback will work. I’ll use him defensively, but I want to look elsewhere. The horse that intrigues me most is the lone first time starter, Laughing Manners, who debuts for trainer Charlton Baker. This Sugar Maple Farm homebred has plenty of pedigree to be a runner. His second dam Bedside Manner was a stakes winner and she has produced a pair of stakes winners, Ava K and Skyway. Charlton Baker can occasionally pop with a first time starter, and this one’s worktab jumps off the page. He’s recorded a series of fast times, including a bullet 59 2/5 drill over 5 furlongs on Mar. 9. That morning there were two sub-1:00 drills over the Belmont training track. This colt accounted for one of those, and the other (59 3/5) was achieved by Wood Memorial contender Tax. I have a feeling this newcomer has some quality.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,5,7
Trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with 1,3,4,5
RACE 7: RAGTIME SUZY (#7)
It’s difficult to predict how the public will approach this highly competitive starter allowance. Trouble for Skylar probably deserves to be a slight favorite on the heels of her visually impressive 11-length score off the trainer switch to Danny Gargan. While she was meeting cheaper foes that day, she earned one of the fastest recent speed figures in this field. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and she figures to be forwardly placed if she shows as much speed as last time. The logical alternatives are Questeq, Promise Me Roses, and Jump for Joy. Questeq has kept the best company, having twice finished second at this level in recent starts, but this field may be tougher. Promise Me Roses and Jump for Joy both enter in solid form but will need to run faster to beat Trouble for Skylar. I’m using all of them, but I want to take a shot against these short-priced options with Ragtime Suzy. This filly spent her entire career on turf before making the switch to dirt when last seen in June. It’s no surprise that she handled the surface switch given her dirt-oriented pedigree, and I got the sense that she won that race with something left in the tank. She’s been off for a long time since then, but Tom Bush has had some recent success bringing horses back from lengthy layoffs. It’s a good sign that she is spotted ambitiously with a live rider like Junior Alvarado named, and it appears that she’s been training well at Palm Meadows. Her running style fits the projected race flow, and I have a feeling she’ll be capable of running faster as a more mature 4-year-old.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4,5,6
RACE 8: ELEGANT ZIP (#5)
Shelley Ann is the horse to beat as she moves back up into stakes company. She ran a gallant race in the East View last December, losing only to eventual Busher winner Espresso Shot after leading most of the way. She validated that improved form with a solid allowance score last time and appears to be one of the fastest horses in this field. The only concern for her is the pace since she has run her best races when able to vie for the lead. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with Intoxicologist and Flush likely to challenge her for the lead. I still think she’s dangerous, but a quick early tempo could make her vulnerable to her main rival, Elegant Zip. This David Donk filly is my top pick. I had originally been skeptical about her stretching out to the one-mile distance given her sprint-oriented pedigree, but she has proven that this trip is no problem for her in recent starts. She was originally supposed to contest the Busanda in February, but a minor setback forced her to miss that start. Donk set his sights a bit lower for her return against allowance company last time, and she got the job done while showing some signs of rust in the late stages. I expect her to be fitter for this second start off the layoff, and she only requires a slight step forward to overtake the filly to her inside. The other horse I would use at a slightly better price is Wadadli Princess. I’m not sure she can get the mile, but her recent form is excellent, and she appears to be improving.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6,9
Trifecta: 5 with 4,9 with 1,3,4,6,8,9
RACE 9: KID IS FROSTY (#5)
I’m usually not one to strongly endorse a favorite, but I think Kid Is Frosty is very likely to win this race and would offer value at any price above 6-5. This is not a particularly strong race for the level, and Kid Is Frosty may not even be meeting any rivals as tough as the one she beat last time. In winning that Feb. 23 maiden event, she held off a well-meant firster in Behind the Couch, who returned to win impressively with the faster speed figure. Kid Is Frosty did well to hang on for the victory in that February race after putting away the other speeds. While she ran well that day, she may have performed even better in her prior start on Feb. 3. She lost that day but ran extremely well under the circumstances, chasing wide against a rail bias in a race won from well off the pace. This filly is just in very good form right now and probably doesn’t need to improve at all to defeat this field. Her running style fits this race very well since she has the ability to sit just off the pace in a situation where all of her main rivals want to show speed. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace that is likely to involve Ja’s Malibu, Sarahrini, and Fair Lassie. All of those fillies are coming off maiden wins, but none of them faced fields as tough as Kid Is Frosty, and I believe they will find it difficult to survive a taxing early tempo. The most dangerous alternative may be the closer Three Birds, but this race may be merely a prep as she turns back in distance off a three-month layoff.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,2,4,9
Trifecta: 5 with 2,9 with 1,2,3,4,9