by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 3 - 4 - 7 - 6
Race 5: 4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 6: 1 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 7: 1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 9: 5 - 2 - 6 - 7
RACE 2: OVERTIME OLIVIA (#5)
First-time starter Cumbria is likely to attract attention while facing a relatively soft group of maidens for a barn that knows how to win first time out. She brings a few bullet workouts that jump off the page, including a Feb. 13 drill that matches her stakes-placed stablemate Can You Diggit. There’s more turf breeding on the dam’s side of her pedigree, but she is a daughter of Distorted Humor, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her handle dirt. Of those with experience, Hurricane Sheila is one of the more intriguing options. She made just one start at Laurel last year and did not get an ideal trip. She was off a bit slowly and proceeded to race wide around the turn before flattening out. Two turf starts did not yield particularly positive results, and now she’s back on the main track following a long layoff. Linda Rice has good numbers in this situation, but I prefer one of her rivals. Overtime Olivia surprised many with her strong debut effort Dec. 7, setting a legitimate pace and just getting run down late. Pitted against a tougher field Jan. 21, she again set the pace before fading to fourth. However, that was a better effort than it seems since Overtime Olivia was racing right next to the rail on a day when the inside path appeared to be dead. I believe that significantly hindered her chances, and now she finds herself in a spot where she should be the controlling speed.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,6,7
RACE 5: POSHSKY (#4)
The horse I’m totally against in this race is War Eagle’s Return. He comes in with the best last-out speed figure, but that was earned with a very favorable setup against a much weaker field. All of the other speed had scratched out of that race, and War Eagle’s Return was allowed to control affairs up front through moderate fractions. I’m not convinced that a mile is really his best distance. I strongly prefer the runners coming out of the seventh race on Jan. 25. The one who ran the best race that day is J S Bach. He was chasing the early pace before dropping back around the far turn and into the stretch. It briefly appeared as if he was going to back up and finish last, but he regathered himself and came on again for third after altering course late. It was a somewhat encouraging run, yet now Jason Servis drops him down to this $25,000 level, just below the price for which he was claimed two back. He’s the horse to beat, but I think his rival Poshsky will offer better value. Poshsky finished only 1 1/2 lengths behind J S Bach last time, and did so with a less eventful trip. He just hugged the rail throughout and stayed on late. Some might argue the rail was not the place to be that day, but I think the track was pretty fair. Nevertheless, Poshsky had previously run well enough to beat J S Bach, and he’s put together a solid string of workouts since their last race. I like the rider switch to Trevor McCarthy and think he’s the one you want to bet as the third or fourth choice in the wagering.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with ALL
RACE 6: CATHY NAZ (#1)
The top contenders in this race are incredibly evenly matched, so trips figure to become very important. The runner coming off the best recent performance is Paranoia, who finished a game second to quality runner My Roxy Girl in her most recent start at this level. She was allowed to set a moderate pace that day but did fight on gamely once headed in the stretch. A repeat of that performance makes her tough, but she faces a more difficult scenario today. There are multiple speeds drawn to her inside, and the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. She could get hung out wide chasing a much swifter pace. I want a horse who can close from just off the pace, and Cathy Naz seems like the best option. I don’t expect this filly to be that big of a price, but she just feels like the most likely winner of this race given the circumstances. She made a strong run off the pace to win her maiden last time out, drawing clear by six lengths. Furthermore, it’s a positive sign that Dylan Davis hangs onto the mount given that he clearly had multiple options in this race. At a much bigger price, one runner I would want to use along with her is Dream Fever. She obviously didn’t handle a sloppy track last time and could have a say in the outcome if she can run back to her prior effort.
Win: 1
Exacta Box: 1,6,7
Trifecta: 1 with 2,6,7 with ALL