PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 3:   6 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 8 - 7 - 1
Race 5:   6 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 6:   6 - 1A/1 - 4 - 2
Race 7:   3 - 6 - 8 - 5
Race 8:   1 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   7 - 3 - 5 - 6

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. The horses are ranked in order of preference corresponding to my picks, but wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1: GRAND AGAIN (#7)

Super Quality (#4) figures to take all the money in this Aqueduct opener, as most will surmise that he’s finally met a field he can beat. There is little doubt that this horse comes in with the best form, but he’s also been short prices in similar spots before and failed to get the job done. This field is probably weaker than any he has faced recently, but he’s just not the kind of horse that I want to endorse as an odds-on favorite. Some may look to Brass Monkey (#6) as an alternative, and he does have some upside in just his second career start. He got a wide trip that day and was staying on decently at the end despite getting a pretty conservative ride from the apprentice. The runner-up came back to win, so it seems like a decent race. Yet I’m a little more interested in the horse to his outside at what should be a slightly bigger price. Grand Again (#7) wasn’t particularly effective when he first came to this circuit for trainer Lolita Shivmangal last year. He failed to make much of an impact in multiple starts at this level. Yet he also wanted no part of going a mile, and now he’s gradually turning back in distance. The 7 furlongs he got last time was a little better for him, and he ran well within the context of that race. The pace was fast, and he was contesting it before getting swallowed up by closers. His 88 TimeformUS Speed Figure compares favorably to the favorite, and he’s drawn well outside with an aggressive rider on board. The additional turnback to 6 furlongs should also benefit him.

Fair Value:
#7 GRAND AGAIN, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 2: ROMANOATSEE (#1)

Bourbon’s Hope (#6) could go favored here despite losing at short prices in nearly all of his starts since the Linda Rice claim. He obviously handles the distance and he’s drawn well outside as the potential controlling speed. However, he’s just somewhat fainthearted and is not the kind of favorite I want to bet at anything close to his morning line odds. Some may gravitate towards Dee’s Speedstre (#4), the 3-year-old who seemingly has more upside. Yet he didn’t beat much of a field when he broke his maiden last time. It bothers me that West Star, who finished in a photo with him, came back to run poorly earlier in the week. Going out for a dangerous barn, I’m not expecting him to offer value either. The only viable alternative that I can get excited about is Romanoatsee (#1). This horse has obviously improved with added distance, which should come as no surprise given his physical scope and pedigree. He stayed on decently two back and then took another step forward going today’s one-mile distance last time, beating Bourbon’s Hope. He won’t take too much money due to the connections. Yet he possesses the tactical speed to keep in touch of the leaders, and I have more confidence that he’ll stay on at the end.

Fair Value:
#1 ROMANOATSEE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 3

I don’t have a major problem with Try It Again (#6) being the favorite in this spot. She makes plenty of sense as she drops down in class after facing a better field at the New York-bred N1X level last time. I didn’t think she got the savviest ride from Eric Cancel that day, as he rode her very tentatively to the quarter pole and then just seemed to give up. She was effective using more aggressive tactics in her prior start, and now she’s just dropping down to an appropriate level. I don’t expect her to offer much value as the fairly obvious horse to beat, but she does look legitimate. I wanted to take a shot against her with Pretty Miss Keens, but she is scratched. The only other horse that I think could offer some value here is Wicked Lady (#7). She certainly has some things to overcome and her form is a bit spotty, but she does have some prior races that put her in the mix, and her recent worktab suggests that she may be coming around. I could include her at double-digit odds.

Fair Value:
#7 WICKED LADY, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 7: PAROS (#3)

This starter optional claiming even came up unusually tough for the level, as it features a pair of colts coming off very fast maiden victories. Mama’s Gold (#5) is perhaps the most intriguing runner in this field, as he exits a 21-length score in a $25k maiden claiming race. He earned a flashy 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, which is the kind of number that would have made him competitive in the Gotham. Yet his connections have chosen this slightly softer spot as he makes his first start off the claim for Chad Summers. He did set a slow pace while riding a rail bias in that victory, so I’m a little skeptical that he can back it up. I prefer the other favorite Toxic Gray (#6), who took some sneaky money to be 7-1 against a tough maiden special weight field last time. He had shown some potential in his debut against weaker and took a big step forward first time in the Mike Miceli barn off a private purchase last time. He was facing a highly touted first time starter for the Brad Cox barn and outdueled that foe to win in fast time. I like the versatility that he’s displayed and think he’s the horse to beat. Yet I also want to consider both runners entered by Adam Rice. Paros (#3) is my top pick. This horse has shown significant improvement since the trainer switch. He met a good field of maidens two back and didn’t run quite as poorly as it seems. Then last time he put it all together, beating an overmatched field of maiden claimers by nearly 14 lengths. His 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure is a bit lower than the favorites, but I like this gelding’s upward trajectory. He’s also shown the ability to rate off the pace. I also wouldn’t dismiss Valenzan Day (#8) if the price is fair. He didn’t run well in the Jerome first off the claim last time, but he has some prior form sprinting that gives him a chance here, and now he’s getting Lasix for the first time.

Fair Value:
#3 PAROS, at 9-2 or greater
#8 VALENZAN DAY, at 9-1 or greater