by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 5: 7 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 5 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 8: 3 - 8 - 2 - 6
RACE 5: RUNABOUT (#7)
Its All Relevant figures to be a prohibitive favorite in this race as he moves back up in class just slightly after finishing second in a strong $12.5k claimer on Feb. 21. While he earned a respectable speed figure that day, he had everything go his way from a trip standpoint. He was allowed to dawdle along on a slow early pace while riding the rail the entire way on a day when horses in the inside path appeared to have a distinct advantage. It would probably be wiser to judge him on his race two back when he was third at this level, and that performance certainly makes him a contender here. However, I fear that he may be overbet on the perception that he’s improved. He also has to deal with a pace rival in Big Mountain, who would be tough for this field to handle if he were at his best. However, his recent form leaves something to be desired. That said he’s retained much of his early speed, so he figures to pose a problem for the favorite and could lead these a long way on the class drop. I’m using both of these front-runners, but I want to go in a different direction for my top pick. Runabout only finished a half-length behind Its All Relevant when they met at this level on Jan. 23, and this gelding surely had the tougher trip trying to close into a slow pace. He was never really in the mix last time in his first start off the claim for Amira Chichakly, but he was in over his head at the $32k claiming level. He made a brief bid in upper stretch before flattening out, but still earned a decent 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his effort, suggesting that he’s held his form. If he can run as well as he did two back dropping down in class, I think he’s a threat to upset.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,4,6
RACE 6: INSTINCTIVE RHYTHM (#3)
The TimeformUS Pace Projector depicts Foolish Ghost on a clear early lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and that might be enough to get this 6-time winner home. However, he’s tried this level a few times recently and has blown clear stretch leads in three of those four starts. He has faced more taxing pace scenarios that he’s likely to encounter this time, but he’s still not the kind of horse that I want to lean on at a short price. Instinctive Rhythm was the 6-5 favorite in that Feb. 4 race that Foolish Ghost exits, but he lost all chance when he hopped up at the start and spotted the field a couple of lengths. He didn’t do any meaningful running thereafter, but I’m willing to give him a pass for that performance. Prior to that Instinctive Rhythm had been earning a series of speed figures that put him squarely in the mix against this field, and he ran very well in his only prior start at this level on Jan. 2. He figures to get a great trip stalking the pace and I think he’ll be the one to prove the biggest threat to the favorite if Foolish Ghost gets leg weary in the late stages. Some may also consider a horse like Sneakiness, who has a race two back that makes him competitive here. However, I wasn’t thrilled with his effort against claimers last time when he lacked early speed and was passed from behind in the stretch. He is making his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez, but I prefer the proven class of Instinctive Rhythm at what could be a better price.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 1,2,5
RACE 7: CRITICAL VALUE (#5)
Lucky Move is the horse to beat as she moves back into New York-bred company for this Biogio’s Rose. She’s earned a series of speed figures that are simply superior to those of her rivals, but she has primarily done so in races going slightly farther than today’s one-mile distance. Some may also be deterred by her regression out of the triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figures last time, but note that she got the wrong trip in that Nellie Morse. She was a little rank early as the pace slowed down and made a premature move while racing wide. She had been in excellent form prior to that, and she did handle a one-turn configuration when she won the Empire Distaff at Belmont in October. The bigger issue for this mare could be the lack of pace in this race. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the early leaders, with Lucky Move lagging well behind in the early stages. She’s overcome slow paces before, but I’m not thrilled at the prospect of taking a short price on her to do so. Her main rival is probably Espresso Shot, but I prefer this 5-year-old mare going a bit shorter than today’s one-mile distance. She does have the tactical speed to work out a better trip than the favorite, but she’s unlikely to offer much value either. I want to get a little more creative with Critical Value. This filly was no match for Lucky Move when they faced off in the Empire Distaff last year, and it’s fair to argue that she’s simply been off form since then. However, I thought she had a legitimate excuse against a tough field two back. Then last time she was in good position on the backstretch but was steadily shuffled back on the far turn before having to alter course in traffic through the stretch. All things considered, she did very well to get up for third, putting forth her best effort in a while. I think this filly could benefit from the addition of blinkers given the lack of focus she displays at times. She also does possess the tactical speed to stay closer to the pace than she has been lately.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6
Trifecta: 5 with 3,6 with ALL
RACE 8: WINNERS LAUGH (#3)
Mr. Buckley and Triple Americano figure to vie for favoritism in this finale. The former seems like the more reliable contender as he drops back into New York-bred company after finishing a good third against open foes last time. That admittedly wasn’t the strongest open company field, but he nevertheless contested the pace and held on well until midstretch before getting overhauled by the talented O’Trouble. A repeat of that performance or any kind of step forward will make him tough for this field to handle. Some may view Triple Americano as a viable alternative, but I get mixed signals from this horse. He was against a rail bias on Feb. 13, but that was just a $25k maiden claiming event and it’s hard for me to reconcile that he was beaten by some vastly inferior horses, bias aided or not. Furthermore, while that race got a surprisingly fast Beyer, the TimeformUS Speed Figure of 72 seems far more sensible to me, and that puts him out of range of a horse like Mr. Buckley. I’m using the favorite, but I’m most intrigued by a first time starter. Winners Laugh makes his debut as a 4-year-old, but he is bred to relish this sprint distance. While Broken Vow isn’t necessarily a speed influence, his dam was a stakes-winning sprinter and her only other foal to race is Amundson (by Curlin), winner of the 2020 Hollie Hughes over this course and distance. The speed in this female family seems to dominate this line, and some of the works for this colt’s debut look solid. Furthermore, Horacio DePaz is a strong 7 for 22 (32%, $3.74 ROI) with 3YO+ first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. At a bigger price, I would also include Forgotten Mission, who was green in his debut and didn't get the best ride last time. I'm not quite convinced that he's good enough to beat this field, but he'll offer better value than others.
Win: 3
Exacta Box: 3,8