by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   7 - 2 - 3 - 1A
Race 2:   7 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   2 - 12 - 5 - 11
Race 5:   9 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 6:   4 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 7:   9 - 5 - 3 - 11
Race 8:   3 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 9:   7 - 3 - 8 - 5

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: SKY QUEEN (#7)
Halo City is overdue to break out of the maiden ranks. She really should have graduated last time, but a series of mishaps prevented her from getting to the wire first. She broke about a length slowly, which put her out of position. Carmouche tried to save some ground thereafter, but he ended up getting stuck in a pocket in behind the leaders and couldn’t find a clear path in the stretch until it was too late. Prior to that, she had put forth her best effort going this one-mile distance. Main rival Tonal Vision didn’t have nearly as much trouble as Halo City last time, but she didn’t get an ideal trip either. Dylan Davis had her in a good spot saving ground on the turn, but the rail never really opened up in the lane. It’s unclear if she had more to offer, but she may have been discouraged having to race in tight quarters. Now this daughter of Tonalist gets an added furlong to work with, and she's bred to handle more ground as a half-sister to nine-furlong stakes winner Geothermal. They’re clearly the two horses to beat, but I’m intrigued by second-time starter Sky Queen. She didn’t show much in her debut, but it seems as if that was expected. She was fairly dead on the board at 9-2 given the weak nature of that field, and Eric Cancel rode her very conservatively. He didn’t apply much pressure as she tired nearing the quarter pole and basically just eased her up late. She probably needed that start, and her pedigree indicates she has room for improvement as a half-sister to multiple Grade 2-winning router Miss Sky Warrior. Kelly Breen is 5 for 23 (22%, $2.23 ROI) with second time starting maidens in dirt routes over five years.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 7 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,5
 

RACE 4: ANGELS AND US (#2)
It’s hard to trust anyone in this wide-open maiden claimer, so I want to keep an open mind. Short prices like Vitanza and Pendolino can certainly win, but neither one figures to offer any value. Vitanza’s form is exposed at this point. She’s run consistently well since making the switch to dirt, and she may have even taken a step forward with the addition of blinkers last time. Yet she’s still not earning speed figures that make her formidable against a field like this. Pendolino will beat her if she gets back to her best form, but that’s a major question mark. This filly was eased in the slop last time, which is concerning considering that she’s handled such going in the past. Her form just appears to be declining, but she may not need to be at her best to defeat this group. There are others to consider, but I want to get more creative. A few of these come out of a similar event on February 15 and the horse that intrigues me most from that affair is Angels and Us. This filly was making her first start back from a 7-month layoff that day, so she had a right to need the race. She ran up into a contending position on the backstretch, but then was forced to race extremely wide around the far turn. All things considered, she stayed on well to be fifth while finishing ahead of today’s rival Funderella. Now she gets a rider switch to a journeyman jockey and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her show more speed this time. It’s not as if she has to improve that much to take down the aforementioned rivals.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,7,10,11,12
 

RACE 6: BETA (#4)
I can’t possibly bet Implied Volatility at a short price after he hung so badly last time. He had every chance to go by the leaders in the stretch and just never showed any will to win, letting the runner inside of him edge ahead just before the wire. He’s the horse to beat based on his set of superior speed figures, but I want to look elsewhere for a new face. Mr Wonderful fits that bill, though you have to be concerned about the 10-month layoff coming into this race. George Weaver does not do particularly well with horses coming off extended breaks like this. That said, he may appreciate the turnback in distance since his two prior dirt attempts for this barn came going longer, and it’s unclear that route distances actually suit him. I’m using him prominently, but he also may go off at a relatively short price. The runner that intrigues me most is the 3-year-old Beta. It’s not easy for a younger runner to step up against his elders at this time of year, but this horse may be catching the right field. He’s just faced significantly tougher competition in most of his dirt starts. That was certainly true last time when he finished third behind next-out allowance winner Tapizearance. He also put in a notable effort when checking in fourth against a very tough maiden special weight field on Dec. 5. He’s a little inconsistent, but his top speed figures put him squarely in the mix and James Ferraro’s horses have been running well lately. I don’t like the presence of an apprentice who rarely wins, but at least that figures to drive up his price.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,6
 

RACE 7: MONEYMEISTER (#9)
A number of horses are dropping in class here, so one of the primary handicapping challenges is to figure out who will maintain their form into this start. I have my doubts about a few of them. The likely favorite is Mo Diddley, and he would obviously be difficult for this field to beat if he repeats his last couple of speed figures. However, he’s suddenly dropping down in class off a solid performance, and Bruce Brown is just 4 for 31 (13%, $0.70 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more over five years. I have even less faith in Saratoga Giro, who also may take some money. It seems like Jason Servis and Michael Dubb are just acknowledging that they made a bad claim, as this horse’s form had completely fallen apart for his prior trainer. They’re now basically begging someone to take this once classy runner for $10,000. I want to focus on horses who appear to be in better form. The one that intrigues me most is Moneymeister, who may get somewhat overlooked here due to the low-profile connections. This horse put in a strong late rally last time to just miss behind the favorite We Should Talk, and he was flattered when that rival returned to win here with an improved speed figure last week. He deserves extra credit for that effort since Feb. 22 was a day on which the track appeared to be favoring speed horses. Furthermore, it’s not as if that performance came out of nowhere, since he had also run well two back when no match for the freakish performance from Where’s Rudy. The Pace Projector is predicting that he’ll get a fast pace to close into.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,5,11
Trifecta: 9 with 3,5 with 3,4,5,11
 

RACE 8: PALOMITA (#3)
Sadie Lady is a deserving favorite in this race. She’s moving up in class, but she’s not catching the toughest field at this level and she’s in razor sharp form right now. The Rob Atras barn has fantastic statistics with horses coming off victories and she probably doesn’t need to improve at all on that career-best 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned last time. I’m using her prominently, but she’s going to be a pretty short price and there are some others to consider. Aunt Babe has been in very good form recently for James Ferraro. She was unlucky to lose two back when just falling a nose short of getting up over a horse who got a perfect trip. Then last time she was compromised by a slow early pace. She figures to get a better setup here, but she’s still not as fast as the favorite and will need some things to break in her favor. My top pick is Palomita in her second start off the layoff. This filly ran poorly last time, finishing 13 lengths behind Aunt Babe. However, that race featured a strong pace and Palomita was outrun by the speedy Forgotten Hero in the early stages. She just never appeared to be comfortable and backed up. It remains to be seen if she can get back into the form that we saw out of her early in her 3-year-old season, but Chad Brown does do well in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 13 for 30 (43%, $2.30 ROI) with horses making their second starts of a layoff of 180 days or more in dirt sprints. The Pace Projector is predicting that she’s as quick as Sadie Lady in the early going, so perhaps she can secure a better position contesting the pace this time.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,7
Trifecta: 3 with 4,7 with 2,4,7