by David Aragona
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Race 1: 9 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 7 - 2 - 1 - 9
Race 3: 1 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 7 - 1/1A - 10
Race 5: 8 - 2 - 5 - 9
Race 6: 10 - 6 - 5 - 9
Race 7: 3 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 8: 8 - 9 - 10 - 5
Race 9: 10 - 8 - 3 - 5
Race 10: 9 - 10 - 7 - 8
RACE 4: O SHEA CAN U SEE (#3)
At first glance, this entry looks pretty tough to beat. Mo Diddley appears to be the stronger half after winning at this level a month ago, his second straight victory since the claim by Mertkan Kantarmaci. He’s facing some of the same rivals and just has to reproduce that form at a different track. However, it’s worth noting that he got a very slow pace up front last time and he figures to face much more pressure this time from some key speed rivals like Laura’s Posse, Jewel Can Disco, and Sudden Surprise. He may have to run a lot better this time to overcome that scenario. The other half of this entry isn’t without a chance to serve as a backup plan. Playthatfunnymusic has kept decent company while facing open claimers recently and he may actually be suited by this turnback in distance. It’s not as if he’s a horse that needs the lead to win. I’ll use this pair defensively, but they’re unlikely to offer value. I instead think it’s worth upgrading some of the horses who were hindered by the pace situation in Mo Diddley’s last race. Candid Desire is the obvious one to take out of that spot, since he closed for third and has prior form that would make him a serious contender at this level. He’ll be on my tickets, but I prefer O Shea Can U See at what might be a slightly bigger price. This horse could only manage to get up for fifth last time, but he actually made up quite a bit of ground after getting outrun to the quarter pole. Furthermore, he’s been compromised by slow paces in each of his last two starts, as he also had little chance to close into a moderate tempo behind his stablemate two back. I like this slight stretch-out to 6 1/2 furlongs for him and I think he’s subtly in better form than it appears since the claim by Linda Rice.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6,7,10
RACE 5: THREE OUTLAWS (#8)
Crack Shot figures to go off as the favorite here despite losing as the 4-5 favorite when making his first start against winners last time. Things didn’t quite work out for him that day from a trip standpoint, as another rival was sent hard from the inside and he was forced to rate for a quarter-mile before running up to engage around the far turn through fast fractions. He had a right to get tired late, but I still have some concerns about this guy’s stamina. He seemed to do best going 5 1/2 furlongs up at the Spa and it’s unclear if he’s quite as effective over today’s distance. I’m using him prominently, but I actually prefer the horse who finished just ahead of him in that Sept. 18 affair. Three Outlaws closed well to grab second that day under a lovely ride from Joel Rosario, but his trip didn’t go as smoothly last time. He was dealt a bad hand when forced to break from the second-widest post in a 12-horse field and Dylan Davis was just never able to save any ground. He also let this horse get shuffled back through the field around the far turn, sacrificing position in an attempt to get over closer to the rail. All of those efforts proved fruitless, as he got pushed out about seven wide into the stretch and flattened out late when attempting to close. I like this turn-back to six furlongs and the rider switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. doesn’t hurt. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that he will get a fast early tempo ahead of him to set up his late run.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,5,9
Trifecta: 8 with 2,5,9 with 1,2,4,5,9,12
RACE 7: AURELIUS MAXIMUS (#3)
Network Effect looked like he might be on his way to the major Derby preps at the end of his 2-year-old season, but he didn’t train on and needed some time off. If he returns from the layoff in top form – or improves at all – he’s going to be very difficult for this field to handle. However, it’s difficult to know how he’s coming up to this race since he’s been training in seclusion up at Saratoga. I don’t want to read too much into the fact that he’s been working in company with stablemates at a variety of class levels, but I am a little concerned that he’s going to take a lot of money in this race based on form from a year ago. I’ll use him defensively, but this isn’t the kind of favorite that I want to take on top. I actually prefer Chad Brown’s other horse, primarily due to the fact that he figures to be a more palatable price. Aurelius Maximus hasn’t been seen for 13 months, but he had also shown promise as a juvenile. He was beaten by some good ones in the Grade 1 Champagne, a race out of which the other horse who closed from well back, Code of Honor, has gone on to become one of the best of his crop. This colt has the pedigree to get better with age and distance, and he’s been working well for the return. He obviously needs to take a step forward to win, but that’s certainly possible with natural improvement due to maturity. He’s my top pick, but I wouldn’t dismiss some of the other options beyond the Chad Brown pair. Gio d’Oro has speed that makes him dangerous in a race where the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runners. If the aforementioned two don’t step forward, he could take advantage. I also wouldn’t totally dismiss horses like Allured and I Love Jaxson, both of whom are stepping up in class but have earned recent speed figures that make them contenders.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 5,7 with 1,2,4,5,7
RACE 8: CARERRA CAT (#8)
The major players are exiting two key races on the Empire Showcase card in late October. The potential favorite here is Newly Minted, who disappointed at a short price in the Empire Distaff. There were some scary moments after the wire of that race as she appeared to trip and then fell. She quickly got back up on her feet and is apparently fine, having worked a bullet five furlongs just last week. All things considered, she didn’t run that badly after chasing a fast pace, and she should appreciate this slight turn-back to seven furlongs. Others have run a bit faster, but this filly has been very impressive in her victories and merits respect. The other filly to consider from that race is runner-up Our Super Nova, who made a surprising late run up the inside. She was with the flow of that race, but she still took a big step forward and may just be improving at the end of her 4-year-old season. I’m using her, but I prefer the horses coming out of the Iroquois. Fair Regis is the logical one to take out of that event after she finished second behind the impressive winner Pauseforthecause. She’s steadily improved with each start for Jason Servis, though this distance may test her stamina. I prefer Carerra Cat, who disappointed when fifth in that same race last time. She was conservatively ridden early, as the plan was seemingly to rate, and she got discouraged when unable to reel in the gate-to-wire winner. It might appear that her form is declining, but you could make the argument her last two efforts aren’t as bad as they seem. She would be awfully tough to beat if she ran back to her Union Avenue effort, and she proved she can get seven furlongs here last winter.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 5,9,10
Trifecta: 8 with 9,10 with 1,5,7,9,10
RACE 9: MISS J MCKAY (#10)
The Stewart Manor drew a large field of 12 runners, but I do think the focus is primarily on the shorter prices. Enola Gay figures to vie for favoritism off her visually impressive debut performance at Kentucky Downs. Others have run faster than her, but she did it the right way and beat two next-out winners in the process. I do think it’s somewhat curious that Shug McGaughey is actually cutting her back in distance rather than stretching out in a race like the Chelsey Flower, which was run last weekend, especially since she’s bred to go longer. Shug’s debut winners often get overbet second time out, so while I respect this one’s talent, I’ll go in a different direction in search of value. I have no major knocks against the other short price Miss J McKay and I just feel she’s more likely to win. This Maryland-bred filly has run well in all three of her starts, but has especially stepped forward since the switch to turf two back. She was disqualified out of a win in the Colleen, but there’s no doubt she was much the best that day. Then last time she proved she’s capable of rallying from well off the pace, as she made a sweeping move past the quarter pole to open up a large advantage in the blink of an eye. The 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned for that performance stacks up well against this field and Cathal Lynch can win with NYRA shippers, as he proved with El Areeb a few years ago. The other horse I want to include at a price is Fly So Pretty. This filly overcame a rough trip to win her second start at Saratoga two back and then just didn’t appreciate the mile last time at Kentucky Downs. She’s going to get plenty of pace to close into here and she should appreciate the return to sprinting.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,5,8
Trifecta: 10 with 3,5,8 with 3,5,8,11