by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 2:   3 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 3:   2 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   13 - 14 - 2 - 1
Race 5:   6 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 6:   1 - 6 - 9 - 2
Race 7:   3 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 8:   2 - 6 - 1 - 10
Race 9:   9 - 8 - 5 - 11

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: GO BIG OR GO HOME (#3)
I don’t trust either of the likely favorites in this race. Fillet of Sole figures to attract plenty of support for the always dangerous Jason Servis, but this is not the kind of runner that he typically gets to win. Over the past five years, Servis is just 8 for 44 (18 percent, $1.07) with horses moving from allowance to claiming company on the dirt. Generally you want this barn when they’re moving up in class, and this horse appears to be heading in the wrong direction. I’m slightly more optimistic about Ride On Faith. His last race for Antonio Arriaga was arguably the best of his career. Now he’s switching to Christ Englehart, who does a good job generally, but doesn’t have the strongest numbers off trainer changes. I’m using him, but I’m concerned about the lack of early speed in this race. The Pace Projector is predicting that Go Big Or Go Home will make the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and I think that could make him very dangerous. This horse really runs well only when he sees daylight throughout his races – he doesn’t pass horses. Eric Cancel actually gave him the perfect ride last time, as he hustled him out of the gate into a pace-pressing position early, and the horse got brave in the stretch. While that came at a weaker level, horses have returned from that race to suggest that it may have been slightly stronger than it first appeared.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6
 

RACE 5: RIKEN (#6)
The conditions of this race are somewhat unusual. The intention is to encourage New York-bred maiden special weight winners – running for a $150,000 tag – to run against open maiden claiming winners. The two groups seem to be fairly well-matched, so it makes sense. Of those in for the starter condition, Strong One figures to attract the most support. He ran a fast race when he broke his maiden, but he did so against a very weak field and I’m somewhat skeptical of that standout speed figure. Furthermore, I have some doubts about him stretching out in distance given that his dam has primarily produced sprinters. Among the New York-breds, Just Right is a horse that must be considered, but he’s an enigma. He could obviously win this race if he ran back to his maiden victory at Saratoga, but he failed to run a step in the Bertram F. Bongard last time. The one-mile distance should be no problem for him, but it’s hard to trust this colt. I want to bet Riken. I like the way this horse has progressed through his three career starts. He showed brief speed before fading in his debut, but then looked like a completely different horse when he returned next time out at Belmont. He did benefit from a strong rail bias in that Sept. 29 win, but he nevertheless set a fast pace and held off a decent rival. His connections got very ambitious next time out in the Sleepy Hollow, and he actually rewarded their faith in him with a deceptively strong effort. Riken appeared to lose all chance at the start when he broke behind the field. Manny Franco, rather than settling at the back of the pack, allowed him to run up inside of horses into a forward position. He made a premature move to the lead approaching the quarter pole and understandably tired late. The pace of that race was fast, so it’s conceivable that he could have been second with a more patient ride. The one-mile distance may be a stretch for him, but I think he could be the most talented runner in this field.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,4,5
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with 1,3,5
 

RACE 8: BROOKE MARIE (#2)
Regal Glory and Dragic are likely to vie for favoritism, and I have no major knocks against either. Regal Glory was extremely impressive in winning her debut at Belmont last month. She got a strong pace to close into, but she nevertheless put in an eye-catching late rally to dominate that group. Dragic has run well in both of her turf starts despite being placed in pretty ambitious spots against males. She just couldn’t handle the mile two back at Kentucky Downs, but she actually ran a fantastic race last time in the Futurity. That race featured an honest early pace and she did well to take the lead in midstretch before getting run down by top colt Uncle Benny, who went on to barely lose the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. I have respect for both of these favorites, but neither figures to offer much value. Monette is another to consider as she makes her second start in this country after a tough trip in the Matron, but she is stepping up into a much tougher spot. Introduced should be leading these early, but she has to prove she can get the 6 furlongs. I’ll use all of these aforementioned fillies, but the one that I want to bet is Brooke Marie. I know she looks a bit slower than her main rivals, but I think she’s finally landing in an ideal spot. She’s clearly best on the turf, but I don’t think she could handle route distances in her first two starts. She made eye-catching premature moves in both of those races and just tired in the late stages. I thought she responded very well to the turnback on dirt last time, and I’m very intrigued that Clement is now cutting her all the way back to 6 furlongs on grass. I think there’s untapped potential here, and she’s going to be a square price.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,6,10
Trifecta: 2 with 1,6 with 1,5,6,10
 

RACE 9: FROST WISE (#9)
If Highway Star shows up with a merely competent performance, she is going to beat this field of New York-breds. However, it was pretty odd to see her show up in the entries just 8 days after her 8th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. Rodrigo Ubillo has run her back on short rest in the past, as he did on June 8 when she was second in the Bed O Roses only 11 days after the Critical Eye. I just don’t understand the motivation behind it. Perhaps she’s going to be retired and bred at the end of this year, but surely there will be other spots for her to run between now and the end of December. I’d certainly use her in any multi-race wagers ending in this race, but I think there is at least one other filly in this field who deserves some consideration as a viable alternative to the favorite. Frost Wise did not run very well in her return in the Empire Distaff last time, but I think we should be somewhat forgiving of that performance. After all, that was a pretty ambitious return spot for her, considering the depth of that field. She also lost her best chance right out of the gate, as she broke sluggishly from the inside slot. She never was able to get into her preferred position up on the pace, and she ended up getting shuffled all the way back to last at the quarter pole as the speeds backed up in front of her. I’m willing to give her another chance, and expect a much better effort as she returns to Aqueduct. It was the switch to this venue that really woke her up towards the end of 2017 and prompted her to start running her best races. Now she’s drawn in a much more favorable post position outside most of the other speeds, and I like that John Velazquez stays aboard.

Win: 9
Exacta Box: 8,9