PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 2:   3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 3:   7 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 4:   10 - 5 - 9 - 4
Race 5:   1 - 9 - 5 - 3
Race 6:   1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 7:   2 - 12 - 1 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 9:   12 - 2 - 1 - 11

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: DA WILDCAT GIRL (#3)
At first glance, this looks like a two-horse race between the pair of inside runners, Pico Chick and Big Mara. If the former repeats her last win against starter allowance foes, she is probably going to win this race. Yet I have serious doubts about her ability replicate that effort. Over the past five years, Robertino Diodoro is 5 for 25 (20 percent, $0.88 ROI) with horses dropping from allowance to claiming company off wins. While the percentage is healthy, the ROI suggests that he’s badly underperforming with short prices in these situations. Big Mara is more trustworthy, but her form is completely exposed as she comes into this race off three straight wins. Her pace advantage makes her dangerous, but I want to take a shot against her with Da Wildcat Girl. Obviously, this mare needs to improve on her recent races, but her last start feels like one that she may have needed as she returned from a three-month layoff. The pace of that race was slow, and she was not hard-ridden to keep in contact early. She has plenty of back races that would make her tough here, and she’s run well over the main track at Aqueduct.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2

RACE 4: FILFILA (#10)
I’m not a fan of the runners coming out of the maiden race won by Radiant Beauty, including Chad Brown’s Kasbach, who figures to be a short price here. That did not appear to be a particularly strong field going in, and the winner’s subsequent performance does not inspire confidence. I instead prefer Chad Brown’s other entrant, Filfila. She is certainly coming out of the stronger race, as that one was won by eventual Breeders’ Cup winner Rushing Fall. The flow of that race favored outside runners, and Filfila was riding the rail for much of her trip before having to alter course around tiring runners in the lane. All things considered, I thought she finished well and she figures to take a step forward in her second start.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 4,5,9
Trifecta: 10 with 4,5,9 with 4,5,7,8,9

RACE 5: CONQUEST PRANKSTER (#1)
The horse to beat is clearly Rock Doc, who has run two nice races since being switched into Brian Lynch’s barn. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors horses on or near the lead, and he certainly has the tactical speed to stay within range of the early leaders. I’m using him, but I worry that he may be an underlay in what is a pretty competitive field. Instead, I want to take a shot against him with Conquest Prankster, who figures to be a much more enticing price. Going back to this horse’s two-year-old season, he was actually more effective going shorter distances. He ran well to be second behind the talented Mr. Buff in September 2016, and then set a fast pace that collapsed in his next start. He posted a huge speed figure going a mile against inferior competition back in March of this year, but now he’s getting back to the right distance for Linda Rice. She has pretty decent numbers with horses coming off layoffs of this type in dirt sprints.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,9

RACE 6: DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING (#1)
The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors the early leader, and that type of scenario figures to make Doyouknowsomething awfully tough to beat. We’ll see what we get from Kurilov in his first start in this country, but there just isn’t any other speed in this field among those with North American experience. I don’t think it was necessarily the wet track that moved up Doyouknowsomething last time, as his prior efforts were actually better than they appear at first glance. Over the past five years, A. C. Avila is 13 for 55 (24 percent, $2.84 ROI) with horses coming off wins.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5

RACE 8: FROSTY MARGARITA (#3)
There is a lot going on in this interesting New York Stallion Series stakes. The likely favorite is Bluegrass Jamboree, who elevated her game to a new level last time when earning an eye-catching speed figure against N2X allowance company. Her early speed should be an asset for her in a race that does not feature much pace, and I think she has to be taken seriously. I’m not sure what to do with the two runners that finished a nose apart for the win in Finger Lakes’s Arctic Queen – Bee Noteworthy and Wonderment. They both earned impressive TimeformUS Speed Figures for that race, but I want to see them do it again over a NYRA track. I think this is a spot to get a little more creative, so I’m taking a shot with Frosty Margarita. I know that her recent form is pretty disturbing, but I think you can make a lot of excuses for her. She obviously didn’t come back in great form over the summer, but she showed some signs of life on turf two back before just getting overmatched against a tougher group in the Ticonderoga last time. She’s really more of a dirt horse, and now she’s turning back to the right distance. She ran very well in this race last year, setting a fast pace before getting run down by the talented Highway Star. If she can get back to that form here, she’s certainly a win candidate.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,7