PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   8 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   8 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   3 - 2 - 5 - 8
Race 7:   5 - 6 - 3 - 8
Race 8:   3 - 7 - 8 - 5
Race 9:   10 - 12 - 2 - 8

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: UNCLE MARTY (#2)

Bourbon Chase (#3) took all the money on debut, getting hammered down to 4-5. He got a pretty good trip stalking a moderate pace, but was unable to see it out, shortening stride late as the winner flew by with a late rush. That horse, Starquist, appears to have some talent, and came back to finish a solid third in the Sleepy Hollow. That said, horses that get bet as heavily as Bourbon Chase are supposed to get the job done. Now he has to stretch out slightly in distance and the pedigree gives mixed signals. Among the second time starters, I’m more interested in Wanna Winna (#7). This colt actually took some money to be 7-1 on debut in what looked like a strong race for the level. He broke just a step slowly and found himself towards the back of the pack early before starting to make some progress running through kickback in upper stretch. He feels like one who should appreciate added ground based on the visual and his pedigree, out of a dam who won going a mile on dirt. Michelle Nevin just doesn’t have the strongest statistics with these types. My top pick is the more experienced Uncle Marty (#2). He obviously needed his debut start on turf, but he’s since improved in a couple of dirt outings. He nearly got the job done second time out when just missing after closing from last at the top of the stretch. He wasn’t quite as effective last time in another race that fell apart, but he did encounter some traffic in upper stretch. Uncle Marty has shown a tendency to lug in through the stretch of his races, a minor issue last time, so perhaps drawing the rail will benefit him. He feels like one that shouldn’t mind the stretch-out to 7 furlongs, and he still has upside.

WIN: #2 Uncle Marty, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 7

RACE 4: FROMANOTHAMUTHA (#8)

Major Spin (#3) looks like the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the claim for trainer Tom Morley, having raced last time for his assistant who deputized for the barn during a short suspension. It was nice to see this gelding get back on track after a series of poor efforts in his prior runs for the Linda Rice barn. Now he stretches back out in distance. While he did handle a mile in his maiden victory, I’m not convinced that added ground actually benefits this gelding. He’s an obvious contender on the slight class drop, but I have some questions. Mo Rewards (#5) will take money off turf speed figures, but his form has been tailing off and his lone prior dirt race was nothing special. Hollywoodhellraisr (#2) finished off the board in his lone dirt attempt two back, but that came against a tougher field and he was glued to the inside when the rail may not have been the place to be. He’s a little interesting getting another chance on dirt here. Yet my top pick is Fromanothamutha (#8). Some may overlook him due to his uninspiring recent speed figures. However, I think he can wake up on the stretch-out in distance. I’ve always preferred this horse going longer, since he has more of a chance to relax on the lead. The outside post position should benefit him, and he’s supposed to play out as the speed in a race that lacks any true front-runners. Ray Handal’s barn is in the midst of a strong year, and I think this horse may be sitting on an improved effort third off the layoff.

WIN: #8 Fromanothamutha, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 2,3

RACE 6: SALIMAH (#3)

Likely favorite Eminent Victor (#5) is the most accomplished of the three fillies Chad Brown has entered in here. She narrowly lost to stablemate Dolce Zel at Saratoga three back when she was arguably best in the G3 Lake George, before then overmatched against a tougher field in the Lake Placid. Her Sands Point last time was a little disappointing, but she never had great position that day in a race dominated towards the front end. Her overall set of speed figures makes her the horse to beat, but I thought this was still a pretty competitive affair. Some may be intrigued by Brown’s recent maiden graduate Veronica Greene (#8), who interestingly is the mount of Irad Ortiz. However, she would have to improve significantly on her prior form. My top pick is another of Brown’s trio. Salimah (#3) didn't earn much of a speed figure in her debut at Tampa, but she had shown promise that day, drawing off impressively. The trip didn’t work out for her when she returned from a layoff at Saratoga, but she took a big step forward last time, riding the rail to victory while running down a well-meant stablemate. Her 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure fits in nicely with others in here who have already faced stakes company, so she may be ready for this step up in class. I also want to use Spirit and Glory (#2), who finished just behind Eminent Victor when they faced off in the Sands Point. She had a much more eventful trip than that foe, as she was rank heading into the clubhouse turn, failing to settle properly after a slow break. She then was awkward when trying to find a path at the quarter pole, having to be jerked to the inside; displayed a nice turn of foot to run up into third before flattening out. I’m a little concerned about the lack of pace for her, but she arguably matches up with any of these in terms of ability.

WIN: #3 Salimah, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 7: RUVIES IN TIME (#5)

Jane Grey (#6) is the obvious horse to beat as she turns back to a sprint after two attempts at a mile. She handled that longer distance decently, but she seemed to tire in the last furlong on each occasion. I like her shortening up here, and she also may be catching a slightly weaker field for the level. Her main rival appears to be Rossa Veloce (#3), who comes off a dominant win over New York-breds in her most recent start. However, that was a much weaker field, as she was facing a group of horses who were meant for grass in an off the turf affair. She did accelerate away from her rivals impressively in the last furlong, but she had also gotten away with some soft early fractions prior to that. Both of these runners can win, but I wasn’t inclined to accept short prices on either one. Some may look to Beguine (#8) as an alternative, but she didn’t run well off the layoff last time and will take money just because Irad is riding her. My alternative at a bigger price is Ruvies in Time (#5). Her recent form obviously doesn’t stack up against that of the favorites in here, but she was once good enough to be highly competitive at this level. She has been in the barn of a trainer whose horses have generally been underperforming for the past several months. I actually didn’t think her last race was that bad, as she was buried inside early and couldn’t make up ground in a race dominated up front. Now she’s making her first start off the claim for Orlando Noda, who is 11 for 50 (22%, $2.28 ROI) first off the claim on dirt over the past 2 years. She shows a pair of improved workouts and I think it’s interesting that they’re moving her up in class rather than risking her for a tag again.

WIN: #5 Ruvies in Time, at 6-1 or greater