by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 7 - 6 - 1/1A
Race 2: 1 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 3: 4 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 8 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 5: 1 - 2 - 3 - 8
Race 6: 5 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 7: 3 - 9 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 11 - 4
Race 9: 11 - 8 - 3 - 4
RACE 3: JARREAU (#4)
Abaan is clearly the horse to beat as he looks to improve on a narrow loss in his first attempt at this N1X condition last time. He was beaten by seasoned older rival Cold Hard Cash in that 12-furlong allowance race last time, but he was game to battle on for the entire stretch drive after cutting out the fractions. He did benefit from a dawdling early pace that day, but he may not have to work much harder to make the front here without any serious speed signed on. I’m not against him, but I do think he comes into this race a little overrated off some big speed figures earned under ideal circumstances. I’m not really a fan of Shady McGee, who couldn’t close ground on Abaan last time, and would prefer to look at other alternatives. Experienced certainly has upside in just his fourth career start. Jonathan Thomas threw him right into stakes company following his debut win at Delaware. While he hasn’t progressed much from a speed figure standpoint, he didn’t get the best trip last time in the Virginia Derby, going wide on the far turn. He certainly has upside and is bred to go this far. Yet I’m going in a different direction with my top pick. Jarreau has never run this far before, but stretching out seemingly inferior horses such as this is Mike Maker’s specialty. Jarreau showed that he had plenty of stamina when staying on for second going 1 1/4 miles on the dirt three back at Saratoga. He’s obviously a better turf horse, and he hasn’t had ideal trips in his last three starts on that surface. He encountered stretch traffic on July 1 and again on Aug. 29. And then last time he was forced to launch a 5-wide rally on the far turn before staying on well for second. I like the stretch-out and he has the tactical speed to get a good trip sitting in behind Abaan.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6,7
Trifecta: 4,7 with 4,7 with 2,3,5,6
RACE 4: CALL MY BANKER (#8)
Buckortwo and Sandrone figure to vie for favoritism here after finishing just a nose apart when second and third at this level last month at Belmont. Sandrone made the earlier move that day but I thought Buckortwo fought on well to just edge past him late after going wide on the turn. They both are clearly good enough to win here, but I liked Buckortwo last time at 8-1 and don’t need to pick him again at much shorter price. There are a few first time starters to consider as potential alternatives. Jorge Abreu has a pair, of which Whistler’s Honor seems like the stronger runner. However, this colt doesn’t have a ton of turf pedigree and I don’t love progeny of Tonalist debuting at 6 furlongs on the turf. He appears to be working well but I think it’s odd he’s not starting out on dirt. Among the debuters, I prefer Kane. This colt is by underrated turf sire Brethren out of a dam who was a multiple winner on turf. He’ll be somewhere in the mix for me but I went in a different direction for my top pick. Call My Banker took a ton of money when he debuted last month at Belmont, getting bet down to 2-1 off some impressive morning workouts. However, he wasn’t able to finish that day after stalking the pace wide on the turn. That was a disappointing effort, but there are some indicators that he’ll fare better on turf this time. He has a big, smooth stride that should translate well to grass. Central Banker is a decent turf influence and he’s a half-brother to 2 turf winners.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,5,7
RACE 6: GOT THE GOLD (#5)
I suppose B C Glory Days is the horse to beat, but he’s not a favorite that I trust. He’s compiled a pretty consistent set of speed figures despite trying different surfaces and distances, but he’s also had plenty of chances at short prices. Now he has to deal with the early speed of Swinton and I’m not sure the cutback in distance is what he wants. Main rival Brew Pub has obviously had more chances than the rest, but he’s arguably coming into this race in the best form of anyone. He finished ahead of today’s main rival B C Glory Days last time going a mile, but he handles shorter as well. He’s just a logical player who is unlikely to be favored due to the unfamiliar connections. I wouldn’t completely discount the speedy new face Swinton. He ran a very fast opening five furlongs last at Belmont before hitting a wall in the late stages. That was just a $25k claimer, but he earned a respectable speed figure and could be set to move forward. Trainer A. C. Avila is 6 for 32 (19%, $4.43 ROI) first off the claim over the past 5 years. I want a horse who could get somewhat overlooked in a race where the favorites all have their flaws. Got the Gold looked like he had finally figured things out when he returned from the layoff for Chris Englehart at Saratoga, closing well to be 2nd behind Gold Panda. That 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure puts him right in the mix, but he was unable to repeat it in two subsequent starts. However, he those two recent efforts came going a mile and perhaps he just doesn’t want to go that far. The cutback in distance should help, he figures to be a square price, and I like the rider switch to Javier Castellano.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,7
RACE 7: UNCLE GEORGE (#3)
I suppose morning line favorite War Terminator is the one with the most upside in this competitive allowance race. That maiden race he won at Aqueduct back in April has turned out to be a pretty strong affair, as most have returned from it to improve their speed figures. This colt put in a game try behind Swashbuckle when last seen before going to the sidelines. The layoff isn’t much of a concern for this barn, since Jonathan Thomas is 5 for 11 (45%, $2.88 ROI) off 120 to 240 day layoffs in turf sprints over 5 years. I’m not really against him, but there are some others worth considering at better prices. I’m not too fond of the likely second choice in the wagering, King Angelo. This 4-year-old did break his maiden on turf, but I think he’s a better dirt horse. He didn’t have a major excuse when he lost at this level last time and I think he’d have to do better than that to beat War Terminator and a few others in here. Cotton may appreciate the turnback after finding 1 1/16 miles a bit too far for him in his last two starts against winners. He had sprinted effectively early in his career and should move forward on the cutback. My top pick is Uncle George. This horse has obviously been a disappointment since his visually impressive debut last year, finishing off the board in all 5 subsequent starts. However, he returned this year as a new gelding last time and ran better than the sixth place result would indicate. That was a pace that held together on the front end, and Uncle George found himself in an unenviable spot, buried inside at the top of the stretch. He clearly had plenty of run but had to be conservatively ridden for the final eighth while totally covered up in traffic. He’s clearly capable of better, and he figures to get his preferred pace setup this time with run-off speed type Stanhope in the race.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6,7,9
Trifecta: 3 with 7,9 with 1,4,6,7,9
RACE 8: WHITE FROST (#6)
I do believe Runaway Rumour is the horse to beat in this Winter Memories, which drew a large field of 12 runners. However, she was done no favors at the post position draw, landing in a slot just one position from the outside. Jose Lezcano has his work cut out for him getting a trip from this wide draw, but the filly is certainly good enough to win this race. She arguably ran the best race last time in the Sands Point when she launched an early, wide move on the turn to just miss to Fluffy Socks. The slight cutback in distance should suit her, but she may not get much pace to close into with no clear front-runners signed on. I would also use Plum Ali, who didn’t run as well as Runaway Rumour in the Sands Point. However, she was stymied inside of much of the stretch run that day. She’s drawn much better down in post 3 this time and could work out a better trip. I’m trying to beat both of them with White Frost. We haven’t seen this 3-year-old daughter of Candy Ride in over 9 months, but she looked like a budding star on this surface last winter. She won her grass debut over this course last year in very impressive fashion, sprinting through the final sixteenth to win impressively over a strong field. The 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned that day makes her a contender, and she’s suppose to be capable of faster now with routine improvement. She validated that maiden win next time, taking the Sweetest Chant with another flying finish. The form of that race has obviously stood the test of time, as Con Lima went on to become a multiple graded stakes winner later in the year. The layoff is a concern, but she’s been putting up some fast workout times in the morning. She also has the tactical speed to work out a decent trip in this potential paceless affair.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 3,4,10,11
Trifecta: 6 with 3,11 with 3,4,5,10,11,12