PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 1 - 8 - 4
Race 2:   5 - 10 - 11 - 9
Race 3:   2 - 8 - 9 - 4
Race 4:   6 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 6:   6 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 7:   4 - 2 - 9 - 5
Race 8:   7 - 6 - 5 - 9
Race 9:   4 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 10:   7 - 3 - 8 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 1: SCORESWHENHEWANTS (#3)
Bourbon in May should be a substantial favorite in this race after finishing second in a pair of similar spots at Belmont. I don’t have any major knocks on his current form, since it’s not as if either of those races featured paces that really benefited him, and he still closed well through the stretch both times. He has to stretch out to two turns here after showing an affinity for the one-turn mile at Belmont, but that’s a minor concern for a colt who seems pretty reliable. I want to take a shot against him with a horse who admittedly has to improve a little bit. However, I don’t think there’s as big of a gap between my pick, Scoreswhenhewants, and the favorite as their meeting on September 13 would suggest. Bourbon in May got the jump on Scoreswhenhewants that day, as he was able to work his way to the outside whereas Scoreswhenhewants was buried down on the rail. Joel Rosario tried to send him through an opening inside of a tiring runner at the eighth pole and he briefly seemed to get through before having to steady in the last sixteenth. It’s not noted in the chart comments, but he lost several positions as Joel had to steady him across the wire. He was claimed out of that race by Brad Cox, who is 17 for 38 (45%, $3.11 ROI) first off the claim in turf routes over the past five years. Furthermore, this colt had shown better tactical speed in his prior starts out of town, so I think he can be placed closer to the early pace this time. He has to improve a bit, but I think he’s the logical alternative if the favorite falters.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,8
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 4,5,7,8

RACE 6: PIPES (#6)
The two runners likely to vie for favoritism in this NY-bred N1X allowance are Financialstability and Turbulence. The former is stretching out in distance for the first time after losing his initial try against winners, as the 1-2 favorite, last month at Belmont. He’s not going to be quite that short a price this time, but he figures to be strongly supported again and I still have some questions about this runner’s overall quality. He earned a respectable speed figure when he broke his maiden two back at Saratoga, but it’s not as if his pedigree is strongly suggesting that he’s supposed to get better with added distance. Turbulence is perhaps more untrustworthy as he returns from an 8-month layoff. He was brilliant in his most recent appearance, destroying a group of maidens by over 10 lengths. However, he’s needed long breaks between each start and now he’s switching into the barn of Linda Rice. I’ll use him defensively, but it’s hard to know exactly what we’re going to get from him. I believe this race is more wide open than it might appear at first glance, so I’m taking a shot against the short prices with Pipes. His recent form is slower and cheaper than many of his rivals, but I think he’s run better than it seems in some of his dirt performances. I like this slight turnback to a one-turn mile and he ran well over this course and distance last winter. Yet, what really makes him appealing is the claim by Rudy Rodriguez, who is 30 for 70 (43%, $2.71 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes at Aqueduct over the past 5 years. Furtermore, Pipes has the speed to be forwardly placed, which is the running style you want at Aqueduct, and he’s drawn well outside.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,4,8
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,3,4,8

RACE 7: CANDY TYCOON (#4)
There are many horses to consider in this intriguing maiden turf event. I want to focus on horses with experience, though I’m giving the nod to a runner who’s trying this surface for the first time. The colt switching surfaces who may attract the most support is Perjury Trap for Chad Brown. I suppose he has enough pedigree to handle the surface switch as a son of Blame, but you’d have to think Chad Brown would have started him out on turf if he was really meant for this surface. I suppose you could say the same thing about my top pick, Candy Tycoon. However, there were many reports that this colt was training like he might be one of Todd’s best 2-year-olds over the summer at Saratoga, so it makes sense that he would have given him a couple of opportunities to show that he’s a dirt horse. It ultimately didn’t work out at short prices each time, but turf had to always be the back-up plan since he’s actually bred for this surface. Twirling Candy wins with 16% of his turf starters and his dam has produced a stakes-placed half-sibling that won on the turf. He has the speed to work out a good trip in this field of inexperienced runners, and Pletcher has solid statistics with this surface switch move. However, there are others to consider with turf experience. Scanno was compromised by a slow pace in his most recent start at Belmont and has a right to do better here. I’d also use Brice, who makes his second start after closing steadily to be a game second in his debut at Delaware. His trainer Jonathan Thomas is a remarkable 12 for 25 (48%, $3.75 ROI) with second-time starting maidens on the turf over the past 5 years.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,9,12
Trifecta: 4 with 2,5,9 with 1,2,5,9,12,13

RACE 9: MOONACHIE (#4)
The horse to beat in this Notebook Stakes is Dream Bigger, who finally broke out of the maiden ranks when destroying a field by over 10 lengths in a minor stakes at Finger Lakes last time. He had lost both of his prior starts on the NYRA circuit against maidens, but he had the misfortune of running into a pair of very talented colts each time. He was beaten by subsequent Grade 1 Champagne winner Tiz the Law in his debut and then got run down by today’s rival Harris Bay two back after chasing a contested pace. Dream Bigger appeared to be more focused with the blinkers last time and he’s going to be pretty tough if he merely holds his form. However, I think there are some other worthy rivals to consider at slightly better prices. Harris Bay, the horse that beat Dream Bigger, would be a serious threat if able to run back to his debut form. He didn’t seem quite as comfortable going the mile last time, as he got very tired in the late stages, so this turnback in distance should benefit him. My top pick is Moonachie, who also drops out of a loss against stakes company and turns back in distance. This Jeremiah Englehart trainee was very impressive in his debut at Saratoga, dominating throughout while winning by 10 lengths, earning a respectable TimeformUS Sped Figure of 98. A repeat of that performance would make him a threat to Dream Bigger. Though it’s not noted in the chart comments, this chestnut colt actually was off about a length slowly in his stakes debut last time and then forced to rate off a slow pace, and I think that compromised his chances. This time, provided that he breaks cleanly, I think Manny Franco will send him to the front and I believe he’ll be tough to catch.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6,7
Trifecta: 4,7 with 4,7 with 1,2,3,6