by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 4 - 6 - 1A
Race 2: 7 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 5 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 8 - 2 - 9 - 5
Race 5: 5 - 2 - 4 - 1/1A
Race 6: 9 - 5 - 10 - 4
Race 7: 4 - 11 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 5 - 3 - 6 - 1/1A
Race 9: 6 - 10 - 9 - 5
RACE 1: SEETHISQUICK (#2)
The horse to beat is Fooch, who figures to go favored in this spot as he returns from a nine-month layoff for Wesley Ward. While Wesley Ward
doesn’t have the best overall layoff numbers, he does exceptionally well with maidens in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 21 for 50 (42
percent, $2.53 ROI) with maidens returning from layoffs of 180 days or more in sprints. His lone start at Gulfstream has proven to be a live race in
retrospect, as Copper Town now appears to be one of the fastest 3-year-olds in the country, and other also-rans returned to improve their speed
figures. I’ll certainly use him, but I want to take a shot with Seethisquick at a much more generous price. He also hasn’t been seen in quite some
time, but he actually put in some decent efforts during the first portion of his career last winter. He was a strong third behind Cloud Computing
when racing against an inside bias back in February, and followed that up with another solid run in March. Both of those races came during a time
when trainer Joe Parker was winning races in bunches, and he’s since gone silent. However, I’m encouraged that this horse returns showing a bullet
workout and has a live rider like Paco Lopez named.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6
RACE 3: LOKI’S VENGEANCE (#5)
He’s probably not going to be that large of a price, but I’m not trying to beat Loki’s Vengeance in this spot as he goes for his third consecutive win in
this New York Stallion Series stakes. This horse has never been a big fan of wet tracks, so I can excuse his last two efforts back in May. His prior races
over fast tracks certainly put him in the mix here, and he’d undoubtedly win if he were to get back to the effort he put in to win this last year. He’s
now making his first start for Linda Rice, who has excellent numbers off trainer changes in dirt sprints. Over the past five years, she is 11 for 35 (31
percent, $2.78 ROI) in such situations. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that Loki’s Vengeance will be in a position to control affairs on
the front end. He just appears to be a very likely winner.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 5 with 2,6 with ALL
RACE 6: RAPT (#9)
I suppose Business Expense is the horse to beat off the strength of his maiden win at Saratoga. However, this 4-year-old gelding has some questions
to answer. First of all, where has he been for the nearly three months since that victory? It obviously took him some time to get to the races, and it
seems he’s needed some time to recover from his debut. I’d be willing to overlook all that if Chad Brown had better numbers with his second-time-
starting debut winners in turf routes. Over the past five years, he is just 9 for 54 (17 percent, $1.01 ROI) in these situations – a very poor statistic for
this barn. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, due to the presence of speeds like Pioneer Spirit, Pocket Change, and The J Y. Therefore, I’m
hoping that Rapt can take advantage of the pace scenario and finally get lucky enough to win another race. He’s had some excuses in recent starts.
He probably should have won three back when closing into a slow pace at Saratoga, and then was taken too far off the pace going 10 furlongs at
Belmont. Last time, he ran one of the finest races of his career, making a solid late bid to finish third in the Mohawk behind the talented duo of Black
Tide and Offering Plan. I believe that a repeat of that effort will be good enough to beat this field.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,4,5,7,10
Trifecta: 9 with 4,5,10 with 1,4,5,7,10
RACE 8: SKYLER’S SCRAMJET (#5)
Favorable Outcome is the horse to beat, but his return to the races was somewhat disappointing. He was bet down to odds-on favoritism, and just
couldn’t quite hold off the late bids of Beasley and Harlan Punch. Beasley has since returned to validate the strength of that race by finishing a close
third in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler, so there’s reason to believe that Favorable Outcome can take a similar step forward here. However, there are some
other talented runners in this race and I don’t think he’s going to offer any value at yet another short price. That’s why I’m taking a shot against him
with Skyler’s Scramjet. This horse ran just as fast as the favorite last time, and beat two next-out winners in the process. Both of those runners
returned to record similar speed figures in their subsequent starts, suggesting that Skyler’s Scramjet’s 30-1 upset was no fluke at all. This horse
appears to have simply improved getting back into Michelle Nevin’s barn. Furthermore, there isn’t much speed in this race, and the Pace Projector is
predicting that he might be able to lead them wire to wire.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,6
RACE 9: ELECTRO (#6)
Culture Carrier will probably win this race if he steps forward off his last effort. All things considered, he got a pretty decent trip that day and did well to rally for third. That said, it’s not as if he ran considerably better than Im the Captain Now, who is likely to go off at a higher price. Even though the Chad Brown trainee is the most likely winner, he just seems like the type that is going to offer bad value. One of the primary features of this race is the overall lack of pace. I think that creates an opportunity for the likely lone speed, Electro, to steal this race on the front end. He obviously needed a race when returning from the layoff two back, but put forth an improved effort last time, albeit at seven furlongs. He’s supposed to stretch out in distance as a son of Ghostzapper and half-brother to Lady Eli. Mike Maker typically excels in these longer turf races. Over the past five years, he is 13 for 56 (23 percent, $2.76 ROI) in turf routes at 10 furlongs or farther on the NYRA circuit.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 5,9,10