PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 2 - 9 - 8
Race 2:   6 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   2 - 8 - 1 - 3
Race 5:   6 - 9 - 3 - 4
Race 6:   1 - 6 - 4 - 8
Race 7:   4 - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 8:   8 - 9 - 2 - 3
Race 9:   8 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 10:   8 - 7 - 1 - 3

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 4: LIAM’S BLUE MOON (#2)

This doesn’t appear to be the strongest N1X allowance race for the level, so I want to keep an open mind about some new faces. Likely favorite Transactional (#1) can obviously win, as he faced a better field for this condition last time. However, he still put in a disappointing effort as the 5-2 second choice, not settling early in the race before failing to produce a kick in the stretch. He’s drawn well towards the rail once again, but I have some doubts about his overall quality. Even the maiden race that he won at Saratoga looks worse in retrospect. The other short prices with turf experience don’t do much for me. Al’s Rocket (#6) finished just ahead of Transactional two back, but got a great trip. Pletcher’s other horse Zain Sarinda (#10) is a wild card coming in from Europe, but he seems like one that would want to go longer than this. Chad Brown’s other entrant Golden Alchemist (#8) is a little interesting. While this transition to turf seems like a bit of a desperate move, Brown actually has solid statistics doing this with non-maidens. His pedigree isn’t overwhelmingly turf-oriented, but there are some influences in there, and he moves like a horse who should handle grass. Yet I’m going out on a limb with my top pick, who will be a much bigger price. Liam’s Blue Moon (#2) looks a little ridiculous on paper, as he was uncompetitive in his lone turf start. However, something clearly went badly awry in that debut, as he appeared to clip heels behind before getting eased. He was off for a long time after that, and came back last time in an off-the-turf race where he was entered for grass. He ran like a completely different horse, showing speed before drawing away from overmatched rivals. Now he’s switching over to turf, which is the surface he’s always been meant to prefer. His dam was a stakes winner on grass in England, and she has produced 4 turf winners, including Hidden Message, who was second in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks on turf. He has speed from the inside in a race that lacks a clear pace scenario, and I’ll take my chances finding out if he's quite this good at a generous price.

WIN: #2 Liam's Blue Moon, at 14-1 or greater
USE: 8

RACE 6: WESTERN LANE (#1)

Chad Brown sends out the likely favorite in this maiden event. Expand the Map (#4) will once again be a very short price after the scratch of stablemate Chaberton. Yet this filly has been a significant disappointment, losing at odds-on prices in the first two starts of her career. They tried to cut her back in distance last time, but that was unsuccessful. She’s landing in a spot where she looks competitive, but she figures to take money with Irad Ortiz getting back aboard, and I want others. After scratches, Mozay (#6) should be upgraded. She has had her fair share of chances at this level, but has maintained strong form and exits a race at Colonial where she was compromised by a slow pace. Yet I’m going in a different direction. Western Lane (#1) will be a better price than the aforementioned contenders, and she also has a right to move forward getting back on the turf. She got slammed coming out of the starting gate two back, putting her at the back of the pack early. The race was dominated up front, so she actually did well to close for fourth up the rail. That was a sprint, but she’s not supposed to have any problem with added ground, and she showed she could handle a mile on dirt in that off the turf race last time. It’s possible that she’s just turned things around for this underrated barn, and she drew a great post position.

WIN: #1 Western Lane, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 10: SOSUA SUMMER (#8)

Java Buzz (#9) could go favored here after finishing second to the talented Steady On last time when stretched out to a mile. He owns some of the fastest speed figures in the field, but I can’t get past the fact that he’s been incredibly fortunate in his last couple of starts. He got to set a very slow pace when he broke his maiden going this distance two back, and last time he was riding a gold rail while setting a moderate pace. I don’t think he’s quite as good as he looks, and there’s also plenty of pace signed on to keep him honest on the front end. After Five (#7) seems like a better option after finishing second at this level last time. He showed that his improvement on dirt in his prior start was no fluke, as he took another step forward getting back on his preferred surface. He also has a versatile running style that should allow him to work out a fair trip. Yet there are also some late runners to consider. My top pick is Sosua Summer (#8). I want to give this horse one more chance even though he disappointed last time when I had liked him in the Carle Place. I’m not sure what happened that day, but he just never seemed to get good position while between horses towards the back of the pack. With the exception of the winner, few horses changed position during the running of that race, so I’m viewing the results with some skepticism. He had run very well in his two prior starts on turf, and I think he’s a threat here if he can rebound.

WIN: #8 Sosua Summer, at 9-2 or greater