by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 11 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 12 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 7 - 1 - 8 - 4
Race 5: 6 - 4 - 3 - 8
Race 6: 8 - 2 - 1 - 9
Race 7: 7 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 10 - 12 - 8 - 1
Race 9: 7 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 10: 2 - 4 - 9 - 10
RACE 1: U SHOULD B DANCING (#2)
Saratoga Gaze has run well in both career starts, but had to settle for second each time. She got a great trip in her debut, stalking a relatively slow pace before getting run down by her superior stablemate. Then last time they tried stretching her out, and she handled it fairly well. However, she was taken off the pace and was left with too much ground to make up. It’s a little odd to see Christophe Clement run her back in just 10 days, but perhaps that’s due to limited options at the end of turf season in New York. Her biggest rival based on past form is Palace Gossip. If she can recapture her turf form from her juvenile season, this field is going to be in trouble. She showed a ton of speed in her debut, and then raced competitively against open company in her 2nd start, earning a very strong 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That was no fluke, as horses have come back out of that race to do some nice things. The problem is that she was off for so long. While it’s tempting to just draw a line through the dirt return, there is a real question as to whether she’s the same horse now. I want to get a little more creative with U Should B Dancing. She’s definitely had her fair share of chances at this level. Though to be fair, she’s only made 6 starts sprinting on turf and she’s finished second in 4 of those, so she’s been knocking on the door. Her two results since the trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez have been subpar. That said, one of those was on the dirt, and she got a poor trip on turf last time. It’s not noted in the short comment, but she had a nightmare journey through the opening quarter, steadied repeatedly while stuck in traffic, before getting spun wide at the quarter pole. She figures to be more effective with a clean break and should be a square price.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,11
RACE 2: GO JOHNNY GO (#12)
My Brother Neil is clearly the one to beat as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. This horse hasn’t been particularly competitive in his recent starts, but the class relief figures to be significant for a runner who has just been placed over his head more often than not. That said, he’s turning all the way back to 6 1/2 furlongs, and he’s breaking from the rail. He needs to get off to a clean start and then negotiate some traffic in this large field, so I’m not completely sold on him at what figures to be a short price. The problem is that there are very limited options among the others with dirt form. Therefore, I’m instead going with a runner who is trying dirt for the first time. Go Johnny Go took some sneaky money in his debut before drifting up. Yet he ran like a horse who needed the race, as she was off slowly and then seemed a little unfocused while getting spun very wide on the far turn. It’s not like he has some overwhelming turf pedigree, so I don’t mind the surface switch. Furthermore, he had worked fairly well on dirt prior to his debut so this might be the right spot for him. Tony Dutrow also does some of his best work with second time starters.
Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,8
RACE 7: MY SWEET WIFE (#7)
Stolen Holiday may go favored here and she does look like a contender at first glance. She won at this distance last time at Belmont over what seemed like a solid field, and perhaps she’s just found her niche as a closing sprinter. That said, some horses ran back out of that Oct. 22 allowance event earlier this week at Aqueduct and most of them regressed significantly. That’s somewhat troublesome considering the close finish that day and the fact that Stolen Holiday worked out a pretty good trip to win. Among the shorter prices I actually prefer Royal Address. She hadn’t shown much in her first couple of U.S. starts out west, but she really woke up in her return from the layoff last time at Belmont. She stayed on well to be second behind Too Sexy, who came right back to win the Floral Park with a similarly impressive effort. As long as she holds that form she’s arguably the one to beat. Yet I want to get a bit more creative in this competitive field, and shop for a price. The horse that could offer the best value is My Sweet Wife. This filly has never hit the board in 5 career turf starts, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. She ran well on this surface in the second start of her career, just missing to some talented runners. She then ran on the turf coming off a layoff at Gulfstream, and later caught a rain-softened course at Monmouth that played to speed. She finally got into a realistic spot last time at Belmont, but her trip didn’t work out. She broke a step slowly and then rushed up on the backstretch before losing position while shuffled back on the far turn. Her rider then tried to make another run, but he guided her inside for the stretch drive and she lost momentum again. She’s better than her form indicates, and I’m intrigued by this turnback to 6 furlongs for a filly who may ultimately want less ground.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,5,11
RACE 8: AMERICAN D’ORO (#10)
You won’t find too many races that are more competitive than this one. I had to go up to 9-2 to peg a morning line favorite, and I have little confidence in how the public will bet this race. There does figure to be an honest pace with some key speeds signed on, so perhaps that will help a horse like Public Information, who I did make the lukewarm favorite. However, he’s also gotten great pace setups in his last couple of starts and I’m just not quite sure he’s good enough to win at this level. The horse to beat might be High Tide, but he’s stuck all the way out in the widest post position. He did run well two back, in his only turf start since the claim by Carlos Martin. If he can maintain that form getting back to turf he’ll be a handful, but there are question marks. I’m also intrigued by Frenchboro as he drops in class. He met a very good rival in winner Camp Hope in an allowance race at Keeneland last time. While I wasn’t thrilled with this victory at Kentucky Downs two back, he did run a decent speed figure that day. He’s one of the few with upside in a field where I’ve already seen enough of some contenders. Yet I want to look outside the box here. American d’Oro ships in from Laurel for connections who rarely compete on this circuit. While he’s only won sprinting on turf, he’s really improved in his last few starts going route distances on this surface. This inexpensive but well-bred son of American Pharoah seems to finally be coming around. He ran TimeformUS Speed Figures of 112 and 111 in his last two appearances at Laurel, both races that featured honest paces. Those are some of the highest speed figures in this field and I think there’s some legitimacy to them, as last-out winner Mystical Man seems like a very promising horse. He’ll get overlooked based on connections but I think he fits well here.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,7,8,12
RACE 9: MAKIN MY MOVE (#7)
Classy Edition is likely to go favored as she tries to keep her undefeated record intact through three career starts. She didn’t run a particularly fast time in her debut but she was visually impressive that day. She came right back to win with an improved effort in the Joseph A. Gimma last time, drawing off to win by 8 lengths going 7 furlongs. She looked like a prime candidate to win the Maid of the Mist last month at Belmont, but she missed that race. There’s a 3-week gap in her training, which means she probably had a minor issue. She’s obviously a major player on the cutback to 6 furlongs here, but this is a much tougher field than the one she beat last time and I’m concerned that she may be overbet. Cupid’s Heart could also take some money following her impressive debut victory last month at Belmont. She completely missed the start that day and did well to make up ground while going wide before pulling away in the stretch. This is obviously a talented filly, but I wonder if she’ll ultimately be better going longer than this. She needs to break better and run a more professional race this time, because she was beating a pretty weak field in her debut. My top pick is Makin My Move. This filly won her debut very impressively at Saratoga, showing easy speed away from the gate before drawing off with authority in the second half of the race. They tried turf next time, since she does have some pedigree for that surface. However, she got involved in a quick pace and couldn’t quite get there. Though she did hang on gamely for fourth, arguably taking a step forward. I don’t mind the transition back to dirt, and she should play out as the main speed from the outside.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 7 with 5,6 with 1,5,6