by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 2 - 9 - 10
Race 2: 10 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 3: 1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 5: 9 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 11 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 7: 8 - 6 - 1 - 13
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 10 - 8
Race 9: 7 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 10: 2 - 11 - 10 - 9
RACE 2: FREEDOM AND WHISKY (#10)
One of the first questions you have to answer in handicapping this race is which horses you want to take out of that November 1 race at this level. That race was run over a boggy turf course, which clearly hindered some horses and aided others. I suppose Reckless Spirit is the most logical contender from that affair, but he’s a tough horse for me to endorse. He did get a nightmare of a trip two back at Saratoga, but it was his own doing as he just lost his cool early in the race. He’s a difficult horse to ride and I just don’t trust him at a short price. Shootin the Breeze and Super Wicked Charm both took advantage of a pace that fell apart and relished the going, so I’m not too fond of them. I’d rather take a horse who seemed to struggle with the footing that day, and the one that appeals to me is Freedom and Whisky. This horse barely lifted a hoof over that soft course, but prior to that he was in pretty strong form. He was just a little overmatched when facing allowance company two and three back, but at the very least he proved that his surprising maiden victory at Saratoga was no fluke. This horse had subtly improved prior to the last race and he’s just a little intriguing in a race where I didn’t trust anyone. The other horse that I suppose is somewhat logical is Elusive Ruler, and I have less of a problem with him. He earned some superior speed figures while competing against better horses for his prior barn. However, it is worth noting that he finished behind Freedom and Whisky when those two met at Saratoga on September 7, and that one is going to be a much more enticing price here.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,6,7
RACE 3: T LOVES A FIGHT (#1)
Funny Guy is a deserving favorite as he cuts back in distance for this New York Stallion Stakes. Seven furlongs is arguably his ideal trip, and he would be too tough for this field to handle if able to recapture his summer form. However, he does have some questions to answer after a poor showing in the Empire Classic last time. While 1 1/8 miles may be a little far for him, he had run well going that distance before and was supposed to beat today’s rival Bankit, who was second that day. Funny Guy just looked a little dull all the way around the track. I certainly respect this runner, but I’m not inclined to accept a very short price on him. The most obviously alternative is My Boy Tate, who won impressively against a softer field at Parx last time. This 6-year-old gelding also loves the 7-furlong distance, and he is an Aqueduct specialist. That said, I didn’t think he ran any better than today’s rival T Loves a Fight when they met a couple of times at Saratoga, and that one figures to be a better price in this spot. T Loves a Fight made one start during the Belmont fall meet, and I thought he showed subtle improvement despite losing. He got no pace to close into in that September 26 affair and also found himself parked wide on the turn on a day when horses racing on the rail appeared to have an advantage. This hardy 6-year-old appears to be back in career form right now, and he usually appreciates the move to Aqueduct in the winter.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with ALL
RACE 5: EXFILTRATION (#9)
The headline attraction in this New York-bred maiden special weight is obviously the first time starter drawn on the rail. Brattle House is a $775k yearling purchase who certainly catches a soft field for her debut. The daughter of Malibu Moon is out of a dam who won her first two career starts sprinting on dirt for Christophe Clement, and her only foal to race is stakes-placed Bourbon Bay. Christophe Clement, who co-bred this filly, is 4 for 23 (17%, $2.07 ROI) with first time starters in dirt routes over the past 5 years. If she can run at all, she’s likely to beat this group. However, she figures to be a short price and there are some others to consider. The other firster Duckphat also has credentials to win first time out. She’s out of a solid routing dam Great Gracie Dane, who is a half-sister to multiple dirt stakes winner Ostrolenka. Yet I want to try to beat the favorite with one of those horses who has experience. Exfiltration had absolutely no speed early in her debut before doing a smidgen of running in the stretch. She got no pace to close into that day and she has a pedigree that suggests stretching out should help her. That may also be a better race than it appears, as winner Vacay returned to win a stakes next time improving her speed figure significantly. Horacio DePaz is 2 for 5 (40%, $5.60 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to dirt routes over the past 5 years, and 10 for 29 (34%, $4.03 ROI) with maiden second time starters overall. She seems likely to step forward and may have found a good spot, especially if the firsters aren’t quite ready.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,7
RACE 7: ADVANCED STRATEGY (#8)
Sanctuary City may got favored again after finishing a solid second when bet down to 5-2 at this level just 16 days ago. Most handicappers will see that 96 Beyer and 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned for his performance in the Mohawk two back and assume he has a significant class edge over this field. However, he was very much carried along to that career-best figure due to the nature of turf racing, and I’m not optimistic that he can do much better than his performance last time. He got a great trip in that November 6 allowance and just couldn’t quite reel in Microsecond. He’s a player here, but I thought there were some alternatives that were more interesting at better prices. One of those is the new face, Austrian. This colt makes his first start against New York-breds since his career debut at Saratoga in 2019. Since then he’s raced primarily in the Midwest. While he may look a little cheap at first glance, this horse has subtly improved in recent starts, running a strong race at Kentucky Downs two back before holding his own in a tough optional claimer last time. He was privately purchased since then and is now in the barn of Danny Gargan. If he improves at all off his recent form he’s a real threat here. My top pick is Advanced Strategy. This son of Karakontie made his first start against winners last time, cutting back to 7 furlongs. While it seems like he never made an impact looking at his running line, this horse was actually in the midst of a sweeping move to challenge for the victory in midstretch last time before flattening out. I suspect that he lost some momentum and interest when pushed out to the outer part of the turf course on a day when the rails were already placed far off the hedge. I just don’t think that was the best part of the course and it hindered his run. He proved that he could handle a true route distance when breaking his maiden two back, and I think he’s dangerous here if he gets back to that kind of effort while reunited with Joel Rosario.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,6,9,13
RACE 9: SADIE LADY (#7)
The two main players in this race are exiting the Iroquois Stakes on Empire Showcase Day at Belmont. Prairie Fire just missed when closing in tandem with eventual winner Collegeville Girl, the difference between them perhaps the fact that Prairie Fire had to alter course in deep stretch. Prairie Fire is clearly in excellent form right now, but it is worth pointing out that the pace fell apart last time when she was successful. I still think she ran a superior race to the fourth-place finisher Officer Hutchy. That 3-year-old filly also lands in this spot and has obviously maintained her strong form since being claimed by Rob Atras over the summer. Yet I thought she had her chance last time, and I also believe Prairie Fire will be within range of her early in this race. I’m using both of them, but I actually think the biggest danger is Rob Atras’s other horse Sadie Lady. At first glance it might seem like she doesn’t want to go 7 furlongs, but I’d be willing to give her a shot going this far due to the pace scenario. There just isn’t any real speed in this field, and the only horse who seems quick enough to press her is her uncoupled stablemate. Sadie Lady was a disappointment when she returned from a layoff over the summer at Belmont, but some horses just prefer Aqueduct. She went on a tear last winter, winning three races in a row while flaunting her speed. I like he ambitious placement off the layoff and think she’s going to run well.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 7 with 3,5 with 1,2,3,5