by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 8 - 4 - 5 - 9
Race 3: 11 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 5: 3 - 6 - 8 - 5
Race 6: 10 - 14 - 9 - 10
Race 7: 2 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 7 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 9: 1 - 3 - 12 - 7
RACE 1: GIRL OF TOSCONOVA (#3)
Queen Kahen is clearly the horse to beat given her apparent pace advantage. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner and the other members of this field just haven’t shown nearly as much speed. If she repeats her last TimeformUS Speed Figure of 103, the others are going to be in trouble. However, that was earned on the turf and now she has to move back to the main track. While she’s run well on the dirt in the past, her top figures on that surface are a cut below the best numbers she’s achieved on grass. Furthermore, Ed Barker’s statistics with horses going from turf to dirt (5 for 44, 11%, $1.04 ROI) over the past five years suggest that we may not see her best effort here. I still respect her, but I’m taking a shot against her with Girl of Tosconova. This Charlton Baker trainee seems like clearly the best alternative, especially since I’m just not enamored with either of Linda Rice’s entrants, who also figure to attract some support. Girl of Tosconova ran very well when she initially returned from the layoff in early September, chasing home the talented New York-bred filly Cash Offer. She didn’t fare as well as the favorite in her most recent start, but she had an excuse that day. After getting outrun in the early stages, she had to steady coming to the quarter pole when attempting to advance inside. She lost significant momentum and had to swing outside for the stretch drive, actually closing decently for fourth. She drew the rail in both of those starts, and I expect her to be more forwardly placed this time provided that she breaks cleanly from this midfield post.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 3 with 2 with ALL
RACE 4: COVER PHOTO (#2)
It’s hard to trust many of the horses who are going to take money in this spot, which is why I’m primarily focusing on longshots. The probable favorite is Free Kitty, but I just can’t trust this mare as she returns from a 3-month layoff. Her effort just prior to the break was alarmingly poor, and now she’s returning for a fraction of the claiming price for which she competed last time. Rudy Rodriguez does not have strong numbers with this move, and her workouts leading up to this race look slow and uninspiring. I’ll let her beat me. The other horse who may attract some support is Malibu Mischief. The Pace Projector indicates that she’s going to be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and perhaps that will get her home. However, she was also dreadful in her last start, which is surprising considering it was her first for Jason Servis. Even if he’s able to turn around her form second off the claim, there’s rain in the forecast and she notoriously despises wet tracks, especially sloppy, sealed surfaces. I want to look elsewhere, and I’m left with the two inside runners as my top picks. Karen’s Gem intrigues me a bit as she drops back into claiming company. She was overmatched against a tougher field at Parx last time and has back races over this track that give her a chance. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Cover Photo. So many horses in this race appear to be heading in the wrong direction, and at least Cover Photo seems to be in the best form of her career right now. She’s an improving 3-year-old filly who is coming off her best effort. Racing at a similar level last time, she was making a good late run up the rail before getting sawed off in traffic at the sixteenth pole. She undoubtedly would have been at least second that day without the trouble, so that effort puts her in the mix. She’s handled wet tracks before, and she may not need to improve much to beat this field at a price.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6,7
RACE 8: ARTHUR’S HOPE (#7)
Two of the main players here are exiting the Hudson on Empire Showcase day at Belmont. Gold for the King was a short price that day and figures to be favored here despite disappointing in that spot. While he finished behind today’s rival T Loves a Fight last time, I actually thought Gold for the King ran the better race and deserves to be the favorite this time around. Gold for the King typically runs his best races when he can be forwardly placed, so everything went wrong for him last time. He didn’t break that sharply and found himself towards the back of the pack early. Joel Rosario tried to get him to advance on the turn but he was racing in traffic and had to steady at a few key points before getting sent to the rail in the stretch. All things considered, he did well to be fourth despite never really being in a great position. T Loves a Fight, on the other hand, got a great trip in the Hudson, stalking a slow pace that mostly held together. He just got a little tired in the late stages, likely proving that he’s not quite at the level required to win a race like this despite having improved a great deal since the start of the year. I’m going in a different direction with Arthur’s Hope. This horse returns from a layoff after something apparently went wrong when he finished last in the Hockessin at Delaware last time. That was a pretty tough field, but he didn’t show up at all. His prior start, however, was one of his best, as he earned an impressive 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure while destroying a good field at Parx. When this horse is right, he’s capable of putting forth efforts that are just as good as what Gold for the King can produce. He’s run well at Aqueduct before and he can get seven furlongs. Given the overall lack of pace in this race, his tactical speed should play quite well.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 7 with 4,6 with 1,3,4,5,6
RACE 9: OPERATION ROSES (#1)
I have no major knocks against the likely favorite Hot Brown. He’s simply run well in both career starts and may break through this time if no one else steps forward. He has plenty of speed, having dueled for the lead in both starts, and there’s no lack of pace in this race, as Apex Predator and Bulwark also figure to be vying for the front in the early stages. I’m using him prominently, but there’s an intriguing new face in this group that I want to highlight. It’s taken first-time starter Operation Roses a while to get to the races, but I sense there may be some quality to him. This gelding is out of a dam who was 7 for 21 in her career, earning $252,000, achieving most of her success on synthetic though also handling dirt. He’s a halfbrother to a couple of minor winners, both dirt horses. He started out in Bill Mott’s barn as a 2-year-old, but he’s returned this fall for Todd Pletcher and appears to be training well down in Florida. His bullet workout on October 28 matches this barn’s 3-year-old Zenden, a stakes winner, who won first off the trainer switch just a week after that drill, earning a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Over the past five years, Pletcher is 10 for 32 (31%, $2.42 ROI) with 3-year-old and older first-time starters in dirt sprints at Aqueduct, so he definitely gets them to fire at this time of year. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but I won’t be shocked if this runner is good enough to overcome it given the positive vibes he’s giving off.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,7,12