by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 3:   7 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 5:   13 - 16 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   6 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 7:   13 - 7 - 14 - 8
Race 8:   9 - 15 - 14 - 13
Race 9:   6 - 5 - 7 - 2

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: SPECIAL STORY (#6)
This race is particularly difficult to decipher, since none of the favorites is terribly appealing. I suppose Mohican is the horse to beat despite his lastplace finish just two weeks ago. His overall form appears to be strong, but he finished far behind today’s rival Tale of Mist last time, and he was aided by favorable track profiles in both of his dirt performances in September. I’m just not sure that he’s really trustworthy at a short price. The problem is that I have even less faith in a few others that are likely to take money. The aforementioned Tale of Mist rarely wins, though this barn has been doing well lately. Candy Zip had to drop down to low-level claiming events out of town to find success. O Shea Can U See has turned back into the slow horse that he was last winter. Since I can’t pick any of these horses on top, I’m going to take a shot with Special Story at a much more enticing price. I know that this barn is difficult to trust, but they have gotten solid efforts out of this gelding on a few occasions. I thought his return last time was a bit stronger than it appears at first glance. He was squeezed back at the start as the runner outside of him rushed up to take the lead, leaving Special Story too far back behind a slow early pace. All things considered, I thought he stayed on well to get up for third behind the superior runaway winner. The 88 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that performance puts him in the conversation, and he has a right to move forward this time. I also like this rider switch to Dylan Davis, who should be a bit more aggressive in the early going.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4
 

RACE 3: WILD COLONIAL BOY (#7)
I suppose Crea’s Bklyn Law is the horse to beat off the claim by Michael Dubb and trainer Michelle Nevin. His prior low-profile connections ran him in tough spots in which he was overmatched on too many occasions, and his new barn is running him at the right class level. He’s formidable, but he’s not the most reliable win candidate. Shortlist appears to be one of his main rivals. While he’s more of a turf horse, his most recent dirt effort at Laurel was actually pretty solid. He wasn’t beaten by that much and the horses that finished ahead of him all have some quality to them and would likely be favored against this field. The problem that I have with Shortlist is the distance of this race. He went a mile last time and his best efforts on turf have come over longer distances. I’m skeptical about him handling 7 furlongs. I’m taking a shot against these two with Wild Colonial Boy. This gelding was an intriguing addition to the New York-bred ranks when he made his NYRA debut at Saratoga over the summer. He had run a bit better than it might appear in his first couple of starts at Gulfstream, and he really put things together with blinkers added in his Saratoga maiden score. He tried much tougher company in his first start against winners when going out for this new barn, and he couldn’t quite handle the stepup in class. Something may have gone amiss following that race, as it’s taken him a while to return to the work tab, and to get back into the entries in the afternoon. I think Linda Rice is bringing him back at an appropriate class level, and he would certainly be a player in this race if he could get back to his Saratoga victory.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 7 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,6
 

RACE 6: HAPPY FARM (#6)
In handicapping this race, you first have to decide what you want to do with Deep Sea. If he runs back to his form from earlier in the summer, he is going to be tough to beat. However, you have to be somewhat concerned given the layoff. This horse had gone off form last year, and Jason Servis was able to get him back on track following the claim last November. However, he’s raced sporadically since then, and the long gap since his last race is disconcerting, especially considering that he was a vet scratch in September at Saratoga. I’m using him defensively, but there are a number of viable alternatives in this race. One of the difficulties in analyzing this race is assessing the pace. Brimstone is probably going to head out for the front, but he’s quit badly in his recent starts. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, so I’m hopeful that Happy Farm could be setting in a perfect stalking spot. This gelding may get somewhat ignored off the claim for low-profile trainer David Duggan, but I think he has a big chance in this race. Happy Farm has run well over a wet track in the past, so he won’t be bothered by any moisture in this surface after expected overnight rains. He raced tougher competition in August and September, and I thought he ran a bit better than it seems last time. For whatever reason, he didn’t flash his customary early speed in that race, and he ended up chasing wide while always out of position. I expect him to get a much more aggressive ride from Dylan Davis this time as they add blinkers. I think his top effort makes him a threat. I’m also using Scarf It Down, who finished just ahead of Happy Farm last time, and Rockford, who would be tough if he could get back to either of his Saratoga efforts two and three back.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,7,8