by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 2: 9 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 3: 8 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 5: 8 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 6: 11 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 7: 8 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 8: 12 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 9: 2 - 4 - 8 - 11
RACE 2: PERFECTEXPECTATION (#9) / FOX STRIKE (#4)
The horse to beat and likely favorite is clearly News Anchor, who has run pretty well in each of three career starts. I think you certainly have to use him
in any multi-race wagers, but he’s lost at odds-on prices in his last couple of outings. His last win was inexcusable, as he got into winning position at the
eighth pole and just could not seal the deal. At another short price, I want to take a shot against him. I actually prefer one of the runners that finished
behind him last time. Nothing went right for Perfectexpectation in that October 22 race. He was off a bit slowly and squeezed back in the early stages,
putting him back in last place. He made a premature move up to challenge for the lead at the quarter pole, but tired in the late stages. That’s not his
preferred running style, and I think he’ll be very dangerous here if he reverts to the more aggressive tactics that worked so well for him two back. That
day, he attacked a fast pace and held well to be second. He’s my top pick, but I also want to include Fox Strike somewhere in the exotics at an even
bigger price. This horse’s lone turf start is not quite as bad as it seems. He was setting a fast early pace, and really wasn’t persevered with through the
lane that day. He’s now getting a significant trainer upgrade to Michelle Nevin, who puts him right back on turf. I’ll use this pair of runners with the
favorite, as well as Smooth Move, who has a right to move forward in his second start for Linda Rice.
Win: 9
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4,9 with 1,4,5,8,9,10
Trifecta: 9 with 4,5,8 with 1,4,5,8,10
RACE 3: SCHOTT (#8)
I have no use for Archival, who had little excuse to lose at a short price last time, and seems to be heading in the wrong direction. Disruptor gets a
needed drop in class, but there’s not much to like about his lone dirt race. Micozzi gets claimed by Gary Gullo, but he’s getting the horse from Michelle
Nevin, so it’s not as if this is some major trainer upgrade. These are the three horses likely to take money, and none of them really do it for me.
Therefore, I’m taking a shot against them with Schott. He’s not really a turf horse or a router, so I like that he’s getting to sprinting on dirt. He’s run
some competitive speed figures in his career, and his last dirt start is not as bad as it seems, since he was two to three wide against a rail bias at
Saratoga.
Win/Place: 8
RACE 4: SKYLER’S SCRAMJET (#6)
Favorable Outcome is the horse to beat, but his return to the races was somewhat disappointing. He was bet down to odds-on favoritism, and just
couldn’t quite hold off the late bids of Beasley and Harlan Punch. Beasley has since returned to validate the strength of that race by finishing a close
third in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler, so there’s reason to believe that Favorable Outcome can take a similar step forward here. However, there are some
other talented runners in this race and I don’t think he’s going to offer any value at yet another short price. That’s why I’m taking a shot against him
with Skyler’s Scramjet. This horse ran just as fast as the favorite last time, and beat two next-out winners in the process. Both of those runners
returned to record similar speed figures in their subsequent starts, suggesting that Skyler’s Scramjet’s 30-1 upset was no fluke at all. This horse
appears to have simply improved getting back into Michelle Nevin’s barn. Furthermore, there isn’t much speed in this race, and the Pace Projector is
predicting that he might be able to lead them wire to wire.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5
RACE 5: EMPRESSOF THE NILE (#8)
Silver Shaker couldn’t quite catch Palinodie last time, but I think she’s likely to turn the tables here. Palinodie really had no excuse in that race, as she
got the jump on the Chad Brown trainee, but hung badly in the last eighth of a mile. Silver Shaker, on the other hand, was badly compromised by a lack
of pace that day, and actually did quite well to get within a length of the winner at the wire. I’ll use both of them, but I prefer Empressof the Nile as my
top selection. If this filly can get back to her maiden-breaking effort at Saratoga two back, she will be awfully tough to beat. Her subsequent effort in
the Sands Point was disappointing, but that was an ambitious spot for her, and she may have been discouraged by having to challenge eventual winner
La Coronel through a fast third quarter-mile. She’s been given ample time to recover from that race, and it’s worth noting that she was also coming off
a brief layoff when she won that race two back.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,7
Trifecta: 2,8 with 2,8 with 4,5,6,7,11
RACE 7: STONEY BENNETT (#8)
I’m not expecting Stoney Bennett to offer considerable value in here, but I do think this is a horse that you can safely key on in multi-race wagers going
through this race. If he runs back to either of his first two career starts, he will be awfully tough for this field to handle. He easily turned away Sea Form
in his debut after setting a strong early pace on a day that was not especially kind to front-runners. Then last time, he probably didn’t want to go a mile,
but he nevertheless did well to hold on for fourth in a race dominated by late runners.
Win: 8
Exacta: 8 with 1,5,6
RACE 8: ULTRA BRAT (#12)
The first thing to notice about this race is the overall lack of early speed. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the
lead, and that gives Fire Key an edge. She has the right running style and the right rider in Paco Lopez, but I’m just not convinced that she’s quite as
talented as a few others in here. I think the two horses to beat are First of Spring and Stormy Victoria. The former ran well after blowing the break in
her U.S. debut, and the latter has every right to rebound after not handling a synthetic surface last time. I’ll use both, but the horse that I want to bet is
Ultra Brat. She’s had some stops and starts in her career, but she’s actually run very well in her turf races. She put in a devastating late run to get up to
win her turf debut going this distance in the 2016 Christiecat, and then was cooked chasing a fast pace in the Pebbles. She’s gotten plenty of time off
since winning at Gulfstream in December, but she’s run well off a layoff in the past. I’m hoping Nik Juarez uses her tactical speed to get her into a
forward early position.
Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,2,4,11