PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 2:   5 - 7 - 8 - 2
Race 3:   6 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 4:   1 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 5:   5 - 8 - 6 - 4
Race 6:   5 - 7 - 9 - 3
Race 7:   4 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 8:   2 - 10 - 9 - 7
Race 9:   9 - 5 - 4 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: BUSTIN HOT (#7)

I don’t have a major issue with Vax (#5), who makes some sense off her second-place finish last time. She obviously improved with some experience under her belt while adding blinkers. I didn’t think that was the toughest field for the level and I’m not sure the favored winner Highway Harmony really loved the dirt despite winning. She’s dangerous right back, but there are some new faces that merit consideration. My top pick is the second time starter Bustin Hot (#7). This filly just fits a pattern of runners who improve for this barn. Linda Rice is 18 for 59 (31%, $2.73 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years, and 11 for 33 (33%, $2.98 ROI) in maiden special weight races within that sample. She was reportedly working well prior to her unveiling but ran like a horse who just needed the experience. I expect her to run a lot better this time, and also won’t be surprised when she displays much better early speed. The other runners to consider are mostly first time starters. Starry Midnight (#1) goes out for a dangerous debut barn and shows some decent workouts. I’d use her and the Mike Trometta trained firster Marley’s Ghost (#8) with my top pick.

WIN: #7 Bustin Hot, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 2: RIGBY (#5)

Wicked Lady (#7) is probably the horse to beat as she makes her second start off the claim for Ed Barker. I think she’s just found a mile to be a little too far for her in those last couple of starts, and she could fare better with this slight turnback to 7 furlongs. However, it’s not as if she has any kind of significant speed figure edge over this field, and it appears that she’s meeting a slightly tougher field than last time. Some may be enticed by Irad Ortiz getting back aboard Reigning Chick (#2) after he rode her to a second-place finish at a higher level two back. Yet I find this filly difficult to trust. I can excuse her last effort at Parx, when she was facing tougher company in the slop, but that poor performance does fit a pattern of her completely failing to show up from time to time. I wanted to look in a different direction to some fillies switching back to dirt off turf races. My top pick is Rigby (#5), whose only dirt start isn’t nearly as bad as it looks. It was her career debut as a 2-year-old and she got shuffled back soon after the start before altering course in the lane to pass some tired rivals. She was facing a much better field that day and showed some affinity for dirt. She has subsequently improved on grass, and I thought it was encouraging that she ran so well going a route distance last time, since she’s really a better sprinter. She’s dropping in against a softer field than she’s faced in recent starts, and I think she deserves another chance on the main track. I also want to use Capital Gal (#8), who ran some decent dirt races early in her career before switching to grass. I do believe she’s a better turf horse, but she’s run well enough on dirt to be considered a player against this group.

WIN: #5 Rigby, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 7,8

RACE 4: RHOMBIQUE (#1)

I don’t trust any of the likely short prices in this N1X allowance affair. To a T (#7) could go favored off her recent dirt speed figures, but she settles for minor awards more often than not, and is still unproven going this one-mile distance. She’s clearly in some of the best form of her career right now, but she’s come to hand as a closing sprinter and I’m doubtful that form will translate to a route distance. Timeless Journey (#6) makes sense off her two prior dirt races, though it must be noted both of those were over wet, sealed racetracks. She earned a competitive speed figure when she won a New York-bred allowance race in late 2020, and then didn’t run that badly against some tougher stakes foes the following spring. She’s probably more of a turf horse, but she did at least show that she’s still in solid form off the layoff last time. Some may consider Beachfront Bid (#2) after she earned a solid speed figure breaking her maiden going this distance. Yet that was a very weak off the turf affair where only two other rivals completed the race, and no one aside from the winner really handled the surface. I prefer another turf horse switching back to the main track. Rhombique (#1) put forth one of the best efforts of her career here just 9 days ago when crossing the wire second at this level going 11 furlongs on turf. She was justifiably disqualified for interference in upper stretch, but she still ran quite well. Her form has generally been trending in the right direction, as she ran especially well three back when getting an extremely wide trip against much better rivals. Her prior dirt efforts don’t look particularly competitive with this field, but it’s worth remembering that she also wasn’t much of a turf horse back then. It appears that she’s just improved in the overall sense, and her pedigree suggests that she should be able to transfer her form back to the main track. Furthermore, the typically low-percentage Robert Ribaudo barn has been having a noteworthy run of success through this fall.

WIN: #1 Rhombique, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 6: LIFELOVENLAUGHTER (#5)

I acknowledge that Alluring Angel (#9) is a contender in this Tepin Stakes, but I don’t think she’s some kind of standout in a race where she’s likely to be the clear favorite. She was compromised by a slow pace last time in the Miss Grillo, but she still didn’t produce much of a kick once she was angled into the clear. She had displayed a nice turn of foot in both starts prior to that, but I’m still not convinced that she isn’t primarily a closing sprinter. I wanted to avoid some others who could take money, such as Sweetlou’sgotaces (#1) and Smokie Eyes (#6). The former did run a fast speed figure last time when just failing to break her maiden, but she strikes me as more of a sprinter and Ray Handal has poor stretch-out numbers. Smokie Eyes ran fine in the Chelsey Flower, but I preferred some others from that race. The Classy One (#3) seemed to hit her best stride too late, but might deserve another chance here given her ample turf pedigree. My top pick is the filly who finished just ahead of that one in the Chelsey Flower. Lifelovenlaughter (#5) ran a bit better than the result might indicate, as she was never on the rail while chasing the pace throughout. I think each of the top two finishers in that stakes have some quality, and this filly was trying to battle back late after getting left behind in mid-stretch. There’s more speed signed on this time, and I would actually prefer to see her sit just off the pace and make a late run. Yet I also think she’s been coming along nicely with each start and may still have another move forward in her for a barn that is often underrated on this circuit. At a bigger price, I would also want to use Thirty Thou Kelvin (#7). She ran a lot better than the result suggests in her lone turf start, as she was setting a fast pace that collapsed. She subsequently broke her maiden on dirt, but I prefer her getting back on grass and she figures to be a generous price.

WIN: #5 Lifelovenlaughter, at 7-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #7 Thirty Thou Kelvin, 12-1 or greater

RACE 8: CHANGE OF CONTROL (#2)

I won’t be surprised when Lady Edith (#9) is once again the clear favorite. The public has really come around on this filly. She got ignored when she first came into Christophe Clement’s barn, going off at big prices in a few stakes attempts early in the summer. However, she outran her odds in those races and just kept improving slightly with each start. She obviously put forth one of her better efforts last time when easily winning the Autumn Days over this course, earning a flashy 98 Beyer. However, that was a weaker field than this one, and she worked out a perfect trip. Now Rosario takes over the reins, which will only further hurt her price, but I actually think her main rival is the more likely winner. Change of Control (#2) finished ahead of Lady Edith when they met in the Smart N Fancy at Saratoga. If you’re willing to throw out that failed synthetic experiment last time, you have to admire this mare’s consistency on turf. She may not always win, but she’s usually involved in the finish, regardless of the level of competition. She has also done some of her best work on the NYRA circuit in the past. She won this race last year, a few months after conquering the Intercontinental at Belmont. More recently, she finished a solid fourth against males in the Jaipur before that excellent Smart N Fancy effort. That form was obviously flattered when Caravel returned to win the BC Turf Sprint at massive odds. She drew a great post position and will be tough to beat if able to rebound with her usual solid performance. The other horse that I want to use is Star Devine (#10). She’s another coming off a recent loss to Caravel. She’s winless so far this season, but has faced some very good rivals along the way and rarely puts in a bad effort. She didn’t have much luck with the post position draw, but she’s versatile enough to work out a trip and was highly impressive winning her debut over this course once upon a time.

WIN: #2 Change of Control, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 10

RACE 9: BELLA MICHELLE (#9)

I’m not trying to beat Bella Michelle (#9) in the finale. I’m not sure if she’ll go favored since another rival has some obvious angles working in her favor, but I view this Carlos Martin trainee as the most likely winner. She’s just getting significant class relief off her two prior dirt attempts. She raced greenly when not getting the best trip in her career debut at Saratoga. That was a field of some quality, so I won’t hold the large margin of defeat against her. She then showed improvement second time out when traveling well behind runners until the top of the stretch. She was no match for impressive winner Padma, but she stayed on well until the late stages. I’m not overly concerned with the turf loss last time and now she’s just getting back on the right surface against a much softer field. Her main rival does appear to be Willfull Desire (#4), who figures to take money based on the rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz from an inferior jockey. She’s also getting a noteworthy trainer switch from Gary Contessa to Ned Allard, whose two recent runners at NYRA have put forth huge performances, running well above their prior form. If this filly takes a similar step forward she’ll be tough to handle, but I expect that these angles will be reflected in her price. Tap It Up (#5) is perhaps a little more interesting. She’s run better on turf than dirt, but her lone main track start did come at a tougher level over a good, sealed track. It was also her debut for a barn that typically gets runners to improve after a start. She’s worth one more chance on dirt switching to Jose Ortiz.

WIN: #9 Bella Michelle, at 8-5 or greater
USE: 5