by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 11 - 10 - 7 - 6
Race 3: 7 - 8 - 9 - 1
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 5: 2 - 9 - 3 - 6
Race 6: 3 - 9 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 9 - 11 - 3 - 5
Race 8: 5 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 9: 2 - 4 - 10 - 11
Race 10: 4 - 9 - 6 - 10
RACE 1: GROWL TIGER (#5)
Instinctive Rhythm is probably the horse to beat after finishing a strong second to the promising The Sound most recently a Belmont. However, this horse has definitely had his chances, losing his first three starts as the favorite, including a couple of losses at short prices against weaker fields at Monmouth. He just seems like the type that runs to the level of his competition. Determined Fury and Clemenza both showed talent in their respective debut efforts. However, the former got a great trip and just couldn’t seal the deal for a barn that is capable with first time starters. And Clemenza was curiously entered on turf last time off that encouraging unveiling at Monmouth. They both can win if they progress at all off those dirt sprint performances, but they also figure to attract support here. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with first time starter Growl Tiger. Arnaud Delacour is better known for his work with turf horses, but he is actually 12 for 43 (28%, $2.13 ROI) with 3YO+ first time starters on the dirt over the past 5 years. This colt is a son of excellent debut sire Speightstown out of an unraced dam whose only foal to race is Mungojerrie, a 16-length dirt maiden winner with an 87 Beyer. There is also quality in the second generation of this family, as his second dam is Grade 1-winning turf horse Precious Kitten. The workouts at Fair Hill look solid and it seems like a good sign that this barn is shipping to New York for this colt’s debut.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6
RACE 3: COWTOWN (#7)
Compliant is probably the horse to beat as he faces winners for the first time after breaking his maiden going this distance at Belmont. He worked out a pretty good trip that day, as he sat in mid-pack early in a race where all of the TimeformUS Pace Figures are color-coded red, indicating a fast pace. Jose Ortiz had to wait briefly in upper stretch but angled him out in time to get up for the victory. I don’t think he was beating the strongest field that day, but he may not have to run much faster to beat this somewhat subpar N1X allowance field. I’m using him, but I also am not thrilled with the prospect of taking a very short price on him. Bluegrass Parkway appears to be the stronger of two Jonathan Thomas runners, and he is meeting a weaker N1X field than the group he faced on Aug. 2 at Saratoga. That said, he’s had plenty of chances to break through at this level and just doesn’t seem to possess that will to win. I’m using both of these horses, but I think this is a spot where we can get a little more creative. My top pick is Cowtown. This colt obviously has to improve to beat the aforementioned runners, but I have been waiting for him to stretch out to a marathon distance. This leggy son of Tonalist did improve when he got on turf earlier this year, closing determinedly to win a high-priced maiden claiming race at Gulfstream. He then lost his first start against winners on May 30, but he ran well in the context of that race, flying through the stretch before galloping out past the leaders after the wire. His last two performances since returning from a layoff look disappointing, but one of those was on dirt and last time he had no chance in a race where the pace failed to develop. I like this 1 3/8 miles distance for him and I think he deserves a chance against this mediocre group.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,8,9
RACE 5: CARAMEL SWIRL (#2)
There are some intriguing first time starters in this two-year-old maiden special weight, but they would have to be pretty good to defeat the promising Caramel Swirl. This filly showed serious talent in her debut despite losing to Malathaat. The daughter of Union Rags broke about a length slowly and briefly rated at the back of the pack before rushing up to challenge for the lead on the far turn. She continued to race wide and briefly looked like she might have the winner collared in upper stretch before that one battled back. She was flattered when Malathaat returned to win the Grade 3 Tempted in her next start with a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Those gate issues she displayed first time out are a concern, but she probably has the talent to overcome that. Her biggest challenges do figure to come from first time starters. Precipitate should attract support for Chad Brown. This Juddmonte homebred is out of a half-sister to the champion mare Close Hatches and has plenty of quick workouts for her debut. These types do tend to get overbet for the Brown barn, but she does have a right to possess some talent. I’d be equally afraid of Paradise Song, who goes out for Mike Trombetta. This barn is also capable with debut runners, and this filly cost $250,000 after working 10 1/5 seconds at the Fasig-Tipton sale earlier this year. She’s bred to be quick as a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Spun to Run.
Win: 2
Exacta Box: 2,9
Trifecta: 2 with 3,9 with 3,4,6,9
RACE 7: LEAD GUITAR (#9)
Lead Guitar is clearly the horse to beat as she seeks her fourth victory in a row. This filly struggled to muster the same brilliance she had shown early in her career when in Eddie Kenneally's barn this summer. Yet that all changed when she was transferred back to George Weaver this fall. All of her starts for the Weaver barn have been excellent, and she’s looked like her old self in those last two performances since the trainer switch. She benefited from a favorable pace setup when she dominated Madeleine Must two back, but she showed that was no fluke last time when rallying to victory over a few of today’s rivals in the Floral Park. She’s the fastest horse in the race, and is versatile enough to work out the right trip. I’m not trying to beat her, and will mostly focus on keying horses underneath her in exotics. One of those would be My Sassy Sarah if she gets into this race. She’s stuck on the also-eligible list after splitting the field in the Floral Park last time. However, she ran much better than her result would indicate, as she completely blew the start, leaving the gate about 5 lengths behind the field. She had been in solid form sprinting prior to that and I think she could get back on track here if given a chance to compete. I would also use Risky Mischief as she steps up in class. This New York-bred has been facing weaker company recently, but she’s significantly improved since the switch to turf and looks ready to tackle a tougher assignment.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,11
Trifecta: 9 with 3,5,11 with 3,5,8,10,11
RACE 10: GRANDMAS FAVORITE (#4)
Propensity figures to go favored as he drops in class after hitting the board in a couple of starts against starter allowance company. His last effort was especially encouraging, as he finished a close third behind Ahead of Plan and Bourbon Currency, two runners would be heavy favorites in a spot like this. That was going 7 furlongs, but I have no problem with him cutting back in distance given how well he ran going shorter at Saratoga this summer. He makes plenty of sense, but it’s really just his last speed figure that makes him a standout, and he’s still 1-for-11 lifetime. One of his main rivals appears to be Unprecedented, who finished just three-quarters of a length behind Propensity when they met at Saratoga two back. His overall form is strong, and he figures to work out a decent stalking trip. I’ll use both of these horses, but I think some new faces are more interesting. Montauk Daddy is hard to trust, but he’s certainly capable on his best day. This horse has legitimate excuses for his recent losses and should offer value. I’ll use him as well, but my top pick is Grandmas Favorite. This 5-year-old is pretty lightly-raced for a horse of that age, but he appears to be back in top form since returning from a layoff for Wesley Ward. He didn’t have the smoothest trip at Kentucky Downs two back in what was a stronger race than it initially appeared. He was one of five horses to return out of that spot to win next time, and he earned a strong 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that victory at Belmont. He appears to handle a little give in the ground and he figures to go off at a decent price here with last-out rider Jose Ortiz abandoning him in favor or Unprecedented.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 6,9,10