by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   1 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   9 - 1 - 10 - 5
Race 3:   8 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 1 - 6 - 8
Race 5:   4 - 10 - 9 - 5
Race 6:   5 - 8 - 9 - 1
Race 7:   5 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 9:   10 - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 10:   8 - 9 - 2 - 7

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: JO’S BOLD CAT (#9)
Worth a Shot is probably going to be a strong favorite in this spot based on the strength of his maiden victory last time at Belmont. This full-brother to Grade 1 winner Voodoo Song had shown potential in his first couple of starts, but had been something of a disappointment, squandering two opportunities to win in the last sixteenth of this races. Last time out they tried rating him behind rivals and he produced a furious finish, albeit against a relatively weak group of maidens for the level. Nevertheless, that 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest in this field. He has to stretch out to the mile here, but it shouldn’t be a major issue given his pedigree. I respect him, but I just don’t want to accept a short price on such a runner given other reliable options. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with plenty of other speeds in this field, and he should be one of those that’s on the engine from the start. Dashing Dan seems like a viable alternative, except for the fact that he seemingly needs the lead and he may not get it with horses like Rockin Jo and Big Wonder in the field. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m siding with the closer Jo’s Bold Cat. I realize that this horse has focused on sprints in many of his recent starts, but he had been a confirmed router prior to that, and I still think he’s better going this one-mile distance. He earned a competitive speed figure when beating a field of comparable quality at Laurel last time, launching a sustained rally from the back of the pack. He got plenty of pace to close into that day, but a similar scenario figures to play out here. I typically wouldn’t love a horse in a spot like this, since he’s not exactly a winning type, but I just think he fits the race very well.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,5,8,10
 

RACE 4: FABULOUS FUN (#3)
Somes Sound is likely to go off as a prohibitive favorite, and there’s little doubt that he’s going to beat this field if he repeats that 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned when finishing second to the stakes-bound Free Enterprise last time. He clearly responded well to the addition of blinkers, showing good early speed and continuing on even when challenged at the quarter pole. This horse had reportedly trained well from the start and he finally seems to be delivering on that potential. I’m using him prominently, but I don’t fully trust him at a short price. We still need to see him back up that last performance and there are some alternatives in this race who seem to have talent. One of those is Long Term Thinking, who was disqualified out of his debut “win” at Monmouth first time out. He regressed slightly at Parx last time, but he seemed to run in spots that day, getting on track in the last furlong after lagging early. He should benefit from the addition of blinkers. I’m using both of these, but I’m most interested in the returning Fabulous Fun, who makes his first start in over a year. This colt was highly-touted prior to his debut at Saratoga in the summer of 2018, getting bet down to 5-1 in a loaded maiden race. He showed brief speed and tired badly, and was subsequently put on the shelf. He resurfaced on the worktab earlier this year and, having observed one of his recent drills, he appears to have matured beautifully. He looks like quite a physical specimen and seems to be training with the same level of aggression that we saw from him as a 2-year-old. As with most Phipps runners, his pedigree is impeccable, by Distorted Humor from the family of Breeders’ Cup winner Pleasant Home and multiple graded stakes winner Country Hideaway, who is his second dam. Shug McGaughey’s runners can fire off layoffs and the fact that Jose Ortiz takes the mount is a good sign.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6,8
 

RACE 5: MICHELINE (#4)
Sparkling Sky and English Breeze should vie for favoritism here as they seek a bit of class relief. Both ran well in the Miss Grillo Stakes, closing belatedly to be fourth and fifth, respectively. I slightly prefer Sparkling Sky, since she had some trouble at the start and was finishing faster at the end, but I’m still not sure how strong that race was overall, especially after neither of the top two finishers ran particularly well in the Breeders’ Cup. Astoria Kitten intrigues me a bit at a more enticing price. She is likely to be in front if she runs a similar race to last time, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead. I know this is a filly that Danny Gargan has been very high on from the start, so it was good to see her fulfill that potential last time when breaking her maiden. She showed vastly improved speed with blinkers on and dominated up front in a race that basically fell apart behind her. It’s not as if too many of her rivals have run much faster than that and Kendrick Carmouche should be able to back down the pace a bit. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Micheline, who may be an even larger price. She gets back on turf after contesting the Alcibiades on dirt, a race in which she had no real chance behind some superior rivals. She actually showed some promise in her debut, closing to be third into a fairly slow pace behind some talented fillies despite displaying a lack of focus. She then broke her maiden in a fairly weak edition of the Sorority two back, but she was fairly green that day, finishing well once she finally leveled off in the last furlong. This would be her first turf start with Lasix.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,9,10
Trifecta: 4 with 5,9,10 with 2,5,6,9,10
 

RACE 7: BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (#5)
Proven Reserves is going to be among the favorites in this race for the wrong reasons. He was a talented 3-year-old who hasn’t yet recaptured that form on dirt this season. His two main track efforts earlier this summer were not good – it’s pretty hard to put much of a positive spin on them. He earned a heightened speed figure in the Sword Dancer last time on the turf – an irrelevant factor as it pertains to his chances in this race – and he may take money on that basis. The fact that Chad Brown hasn’t dropped him in for a tag is a moderately positive sign, and I acknowledge that he’s not meeting the toughest field here. However, he figures to offer poor value from a win perspective, so I’m taking a modest stand against him. I prefer Backsideofthemoon, who makes his second start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. He didn’t show the expected improvement last time when making his initial start for this new barn, but it’s important to remember that he’s never shown a great affinity for a wet track, particularly a sealed one. He’s going to get back on more suitable going on Sunday, and the return at Aqueduct shouldn’t hurt, since he seems to put forth his best efforts at this track. He had previously run superior speed figures for Leo O’Brien, so it stands to reason that he should be able to at least get back to that form for the Rodriguez barn. This race drew an unusually weak field for this level, so he’s the class of this bunch and it’s possible he won’t even be favored.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 3,4,6 with 1,2,3,4,6
 

RACE 8: BEAU BELLE (#3)
This redrawn Zagora is as confusing as it was last Sunday, now with one new addition, Empressof the Nile, who figures to vie for favoritism with Fools Gold. Both of these fillies are coming off poor efforts against tougher company and now seek a bit of class relief. Empressof the Nile has a better excuse for her lackluster performance last time, since she was racing in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl against Sistercharlie, whereas Fools Gold was off the board – and behind Empressof the Nile – at 2-1 odds in the Glens Falls. I don’t fully trust either of these fillies, especially in a race as competitive as this, but I’ll use them defensively. The other logical player is Lemon Zip, who ran a career-best effort going this distance against males last time, nearly getting up to win the Japan Turf Cup at Laurel. She’s clearly turned into a different horse since she’s been stretched out to these marathon distances, and she handled a course with some give to it back in June. My top pick is Beau Belle, who actually ran in this race last year while still a 3-year-old maiden. That was a weaker race than this one, but she nevertheless stayed on decently to be fourth over extremely testing ground, proving that she can get the distance. There’s no disputing she’s in much better form now, as she’s coming off a career-best effort behind Sistercharlie in the Flower Bowl. She hasn’t gotten the chance to try this distance much since the Zagora, as they don’t write many races going this far for maidens or N1X runners. However, she’s always been cut out to be a turf marathoner and her form might just be coming around at the right time. Furthermore, there isn’t much speed in this field and the Pace Projector is predicting that she can make the front. The other horse that I want to use is Wegetsdamunnys. At first glance, she seems like a curious participant in this spot, since she’s never raced beyond 9 furlongs. However, when you start to take a closer look at her, this move actually makes some sense. She’s a slow-breaking plodder who just lags at the back of the pack for most of her races, so it probably won’t be that taxing on her to trail the field for a few extra furlongs before launching her run. Furthermore, she’s proven that she runs better on courses with some give to them, so she’s likely to relish the ground on Sunday.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,7,8
 

RACE 9: ASHAAR (#10)
I have no major knocks against Meru, who is a deserving favorite in the Nashua. He’s done everything asked of him in his first two starts, notably winning in stylish fashion at Monmouth last time while earning an impressive 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure – one of the highest numbers assigned to a 2-year-old all year. He has to stretch out to a mile this time, but he certainly has the pedigree to handle it as a son of Sky Mesa out of a dam who won going 1 1/8 miles. However, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace and he could get caught up in an early duel, which might compromise his chances. I also wouldn’t discount another other horse with stakes experience, Lebda. This guy couldn’t quite get the two turns behind Dennis’ Moment last time, but he should be more at home at this one-turn configuration. He’s fast enough to contend here at what should be a square price. Yet the most intriguing contenders in this lineup are the recent maiden winners. I respect the pair coming in from Parx, and think Independence Hall is especially likely to move forward with added ground. Yet my top pick is the local horse Ashaar, who impressively won his debut at Belmont last month. This colt had been working very well prior to that start, and he was professional in victory, rating kindly before taking over on the far turn with a decisive move. He was geared down in the late stages, but presents himself as a horse who should have no trouble with the mile distance. Furthermore, Kiaran McLaughlin is 9 for 23 (39%, $2.32 ROI) with last-out debut winners in their second starts on dirt over the past five years.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 5,6,7,8
Trifecta: 10 with 6,8 with 1,5,6,7,8,9