by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 6 - 8 - 5
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 4: 2 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 5: 5 - 7 - 4 - 8
Race 6: 4 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 7: 3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 8: 1 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 9: 8 - 10 - 2 - 15
RACE 4: LIFE MISSION (#2)
Empire of War is probably the one to beat. He certainly showed a preference for this surface when he made his turf debut three weeks ago, as he dominated a solid group of maidens on the front end. However, that race was run during a time when the rails were set to 0 feet on both turf courses, and horses that raced along the hedge – such as Empire of War – had a significant advantage. He can still win here, but I prefer others. A Thread of Blue actually ran very well in his only turf start on Sept. 8. Current, the winner of that race, returned to win the Grade 3 Bourbon next time out at Keeneland. The entire field was pretty strung out behind him, and A Thread of Blue did well to make up some ground in the final furlong after having to alter course around a tiring rival at the top of the stretch. The turf course was on the softer side of “good” that day, so he clearly handles some give in the ground. I think he has more upside than Empire of War, but there’s another runner in this field that I find equally as intriguing at a better price. Life Mission has yet to actually win a race, but that typically doesn’t stop juveniles from winning minor stakes. This gelding showed some promise in Ireland when he finished third in a 25-horse field at the Curragh behind Ten Sovereigns, who has since gone on to Group 1 success and is considered one of the best 2-year-olds in Europe. He made his stateside debut in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Turf Sprint, and he actually ran very well, closing from far back to be second in a race that featured a moderate early pace. Some may hold it against him that he lost as the favorite against maidens at Keeneland last time, but he actually ran deceptively well in that spot after getting shuffled back around the far turn in a race that was dominated up front. Ben Colebrook’s overall NYRA record is not as poor as it seems at first glance, and I think this horse can surprise at a square price.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,7,8
Trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with ALL
RACE 6: DEARLY DECLARED (#4)
There are three major contenders in this maiden field. The two likely to attract the most support in the wagering are Abraxan and Evan’s Nice Now. I slightly prefer Abraxan, who ran a very encouraging race in her debut last month. While it was an off-the-turf event, that was a fairly strong such race, as a few key Main Track Only entrants scratched in and many horses stayed in the main body of the field. We saw the winner, Kept True, return to run very well in a stakes next time out, and Abraxan gamely battled that rival down to the wire after contesting quick early fractions. I trust her more than Evan’s Nice Now, who faced a solid field in her debut at Saratoga, and ran a similar speed figure to Abraxan in finishing fourth. However, she was curiously switched to turf last time out, and I didn’t like the way she threw in the towel in the final eighth of a mile in both of those starts. I’m taking a small shot against this pair with Dearly Declared. I was interested in this filly prior to her debut, and she just didn’t show up. However, you can use the sloppy track as a significant excuse, especially considering her trip. She was taken back off the pace in the early stages and had mud slung in her face for the first four furlongs. She tired in the stretch, but her margin of defeat was exaggerated by track condition and the overall strength of that field. I think she’s now dropping into an easier spot, and I think she’ll give a much better account of herself if she runs to her training. She’s bred to be a nice filly as a half-sister to the popular New York-bred stakes winner Saratoga Snacks.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6
RACE 7: COURAGEOUS QUEEN (#3)
Enthusiastic Gal is the deserving favorite as she moves back up into allowance company. She’s just the most talented turf horse in this field and she proved that she can sprint effectively last time out. Steve Klesaris actually has solid numbers off wins in turf sprints and she’s going to be a handful if she merely repeats that Oct. 21 score. The only real concern for Enthusiastic Gal is the potential for a slow early pace, since she does have to rally from far off the pace. The Pace Projector is predicting that Courageous Queen will be out front by herself in her turf debut, and I think she’s an intriguing alternative to the favorite. Todd Pletcher is not necessarily known for surface switches like this, but she does have pedigree to handle it. Her dam was best on turf and synthetic surfaces and her sire Overanalyze has gotten some turf runners. Some may be disappointed by her last effort in an off-the-turf spot, but she did not get a great trip that day, as Manny Franco elected to rate her and she ended up getting stymied in a pocket behind horses. It’s conceivable that she would have won that race with a more aggressive ride. This time John Velazquez figures to send her to the front, as he did two back.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,7
RACE 8: U S NAVY CROSS (#1)
This Nashua drew a fantastic field and could have major ramifications moving forward, not only for next month’s Remsen, but on the 2019 Derby trail. The horse to beat is Vekoma, who won a very fast 6-furlong maiden race at Belmont Park over what appeared to be a talented group of firsttime starters. His final time of 1:08 4/5 was exceptional and runner-up Epic Dreamer returned to validate his speed figure by winning his next start with great ease while geared down in the final eighth. Vekoma is your typical Candy Ride, with legs flying everywhere when he’s in full stride. While the progeny of that sire can do anything, the dam’s side of his pedigree is cause for some concern since she was more of a sprinter and Vekoma’s best half-sibling was a sprinter. George Weaver doesn’t have the strongest numbers off debut victories. Call Paul should be formidable off his thirdplace effort in the Champagne last time. I thought he battled on valiantly to secure third that day, but I wonder if he’s going to be competitive going a mile or farther moving forward. Chad Brown has two appealing runners in this field, both of whom broke their maidens going 7 furlongs on debut. Network Effect looked great taking his unveiling at Saratoga, but he’s had some minor issues since then, and others in this field have since run faster races. I want to bet U S Navy Cross, who was a very promising winner first time out considering his pedigree. He’s out of Recepta, a daughter of Speightstown who was best going a mile on turf, so this horse should handle classic distances as a son of stamina influence Curlin. I loved what I saw from U S Navy Cross in his debut, as he steadily made up ground after a slow break and ran down the well-regarded Till Then to win going away. He did ride an advantageous rail on Sept. 29, but he also showed a ton of professionalism for a first time starter and I like the way he’s trained out of that race.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 5,6 with 2,4,5,6