PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 6 - 10 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 9 - 2 - 4
Race 3:   2 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 4:   12 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   5 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 6:   5 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 7:   5 - 6 - 12 - 8
Race 8:   6 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 9:   3 - 11 - 10 - 4

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: SPA TREATMENT (#6)
The horse to beat is Tiz R Bella, who has run reasonably well in both of her races, and seemingly meets a softer field here. She raced relatively close to a hot pace that collapsed in her debut, staying on well to be fifth, and then she followed that up with a solid third-place run behind talented next- out winner Moneda. I don’t have any major knocks on her, but I do see another runner in this race that figures to offer better value. Spa Treatment has only sprinted on turf thus far in her career, and she now attempts to stretch out around two turns. She actually ran one of the best races of her career going two turns on dirt at Aqueduct last winter, so the added ground doesn’t figure to be detrimental. She finished fourth in her most recent start, but that was a much better effort than it seems. She was rank and in tight quarters around the turn, and then was stymied in traffic from upper stretch until the eighth pole. This time, Irad Ortiz would be wise to just send her early for forward position, making the others try to catch him.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,9

RACE 5: FAIR REGIS (#5)
The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, which may give Tiz Super a significant advantage here. She’s the morning line favorite, but I’m not thrilled with her prospects of getting this seven-furlong distance. She was getting leg weary when breaking her maiden last time against a fairly weak group. Instead, I prefer the runner that should be chasing her in the early stages. Fair Regis has been traveling shorter distances, but I don’t see any reason why she shouldn’t be able to stretch out to this trip. She was facing straight three-year-olds last time, but in an open race, and I think that was actually a tougher group than the one she meets here. Robert Falcone, Jr. has put up some strong numbers first off the claim over the past two years. During that window, he is 9 for 34 (26%, $2.64 ROI) in this situation.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6,8

RACE 7: FOREVER IN LOVE (#5)
This is easily the most interesting race on the card. Changewilldoyagood was installed as the morning line favorite, and I do think he’s one that merits respect. He was in spectacular form earlier this summer, but has disappointed in recent performances. That said, he has had significant excuses in those races, getting involved in a few fast paces and running a distance that was too far for him two back. He’s getting some serious class relief and will win this if he holds his form. That said, there are more interesting options at better prices. One of those is Red Knight, who was visually impressive when beating a weaker field last time. However, he’s drawn in the far outside post position and may be compromised by a wide trip. Instead, I’m taking a shot with Forever in Love. I know that his last race looks pretty discouraging, but I don’t think he got the right trip that day as he was too far back and hugging the rail at a point when the race was collapsing ahead of him. Over the past five years, Linda Rice is 12 for 49 (24%, $2.06 ROI) with horses dropping in for a tag for the first time on the turf.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 6,8,9,10,12

RACE 8: FUSAICHI RED (#6)
Indulgent seems like the horse to beat as she gets back to dirt after finishing sixth in a tough Presque Isle Downs Masters last time. Two back, she was a respectable third behind the talented Carina Mia at Saratoga, and before that she had a significant excuse when too far off the early pace in the Bed O Roses. On her best day, she’ll beat this field, and I think she deserves respect. However, there is plenty of speed in this race, so I think you want to pay attention to some of the late runners. My top pick is Fusaichi Red, who seems like the kind of horse that could end up as an overlay in here. She’s consistently run well at this distance and has been compromised by unfavorable pace scenarios in each of her last three starts. I think she’s a more talented closer than the 3-year-old, Cursor, and she figures to be a better price.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 3,5 with ALL