PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 6 - 9 - 7
Race 2:   5 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 4:   9 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 5:   8 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   5 - 8 - 2 - 3
Race 7:   1/1A - 4 - 8 - 7
Race 8:   6 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 10:   5 - 7 - 11 - 9

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: ADDRESSABLE MARKET (#8)

Tall Girl (#6) and Addressable Market (#8) faced off in a Monmouth maiden event back in August. It was the debut for the former, and she ran a fine race, getting up for second after working out a good trip. Yet it was instead the performance of fourth-place finisher Addressable Market that caught my eye. She was much farther back in the early stages and just seemed to get lost towards the back of the pack. Her rider seemed unable to extricate her from traffic on the turn, and the filly was also a bit green. Yet once she finally worked her way into the clear for the stretch drive, she was absolutely flying through the lane. Gmax had her coming home her last sixteenth in 5.75 seconds, and the visual supports that, as she was flying through the finish. It’s a little odd that the connections are dropping her in for a tag after that encouraging run, but perhaps it’s just due to their overabundance of 2-year-olds in this division. She obviously has to take a step forward, as Tall Girl has seemingly improved since that first start, increasing her speed figures in two subsequent performances. Yet Addressable Market showed talent that day and can turn the tables with a more professional effort. There are some other interesting runners in this race, as Cookie Crumbs (#9) had a bit of a wide trip on debut, and now gets back on the right surface. Yet she may have landed in a tough spot for this level.

WIN: #8 Addressable Market, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 2: DISTURBED (#5)

Perhaps this is a good race for first time starters, as those with experience aren’t of the quality that you would typically expect in an open maiden special weight. Mercante (#1) is a homebred by 19% juvenile debut sire Gun Runner. The dam won the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and she’s produced 7 winning foals from 10 to race, topped by G1 Travers winner West Coast. Bill Mott is 15 for 126 (12%, $1.71 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. His last bullet drill matches Classic Legacy, who was second against maidens recently. I would also consider Kool Kathmandu (#2), who has a very speedy female family. However, Charlton Baker doesn’t have that much success with first time starters on this circuit. Among those with experience, the horse to beat is Login Required (#4), who already crossed the wire first in his career debut. However, he was disqualified for drifting across the track through the stretch. He didn’t earn a particularly strong speed figure for that effort and will take money here by default, with so few compelling options. I want to get a little more creative with another horse who has experience. Disturbed (#5) didn’t take any money and was never involved in his debut on turf here last week. However, perhaps this surface switch will wake him up as a son of Connect. James Ryerson is 8 for 32 (25%, $3.41 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. He obviously needs a total form reversal to be competitive here, but I had liked his sales workouts earlier this year. It is perhaps a good sign that there’s no immediate drop in class, while also interesting that this barn’s go-to jockey Jose Ortiz takes over.

WIN: #5 Disturbed, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 6: FOUNDER (#5)

This optional claimer is one of the most wide open races of the day, as you can make valid cases for almost every runner in the field. Among the short prices, I don’t want Nabokov (#6), who was opportunistic last time when taking advantage of a fast pace to win on the turnback. I’m still not convinced that added distance helps him, and this is a big step up in class. The other two likely short prices are a bit more convincing. Kinetic Sky (#8) was always going to be a stretch to get the 1 3/16 miles last time in that off the turf affair, but he actually ran quite well to only miss by a nose after going wide on the turns. This turnback in distance should suit him, and I view him as the horse to beat. I would also use War Stopper (#3), who won at this level in an off the turf race last time out, though his solid recent form has come over sloppy tracks. Bill Mott has entered a pair of contenders in this race who both sport interesting profiles. Will Sing for Wine (#2)ran poorly behind War Stopper last time, but he had a right to need that race in his return from a lengthy layoff. He should appreciate getting back on a fast track and will be a factor if he can bounce back to any of his prior efforts. Yet the Mott horse that most intrigues me is Founder (#5). I’ve never been much of a fan of this horse racing on the turf, even though that’s where he’s spent the majority of his recent races. He just lacks the acceleration or turn of foot necessary to be successful in turf races. While he was considered a disappointment on the dirt after winning his debut so impressively as a 2-year-old, I actually think he ran well in a few starts after that. That third-place finish behind Mandaloun and Twilight Blue looks a lot better in retrospect, and his second-place to Wolfie’s Dynaghost in his last dirt start over a year ago was one of the best efforts of his career. I’m not sure that he’s going to get that much pace in here, but I do think he’s finally back in a spot where he can be successful.

WIN: #5 Founder, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 2,8