by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 16 - 3 - 15 - 11
Race 2: 6 - 12 - 9 - 3
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 5: 2 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 6: CANCELLED
Race 7: 9 - 4 - 1 - 8
Race 8: 9 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 9: 16 - 15 - 5 - 13
Race 10: 13 - 8 - 1 - 10
Race 11: 1 - 9 - 10 - 7
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 4
This optional claimer is one of the most confusing races on the card, since many horses are coming in with questionable recent form. Among those are both halves of the David Jacobson entry, which could go favored. Bold Endeavor (#1A) is the more obvious player between the two, having already won at this same level three back at Saratoga. However, he was very much with the flow of the racetrack that day, closing outside on a day when the rail was dead. He didn’t run nearly as well in a tougher spot last time, though the pace of that race probably didn’t suit him. An intriguing new faces in this lineup is Full Screen (#2), who tries dirt for the first time in his career. He worked very well over dirt at Saratoga late in the meet, and actually has some pedigree for it. However, he would likely need to be even better on this surface than he is on turf or synthetic to beat this field. Bourbon Calling (#4) tries to get back on track as he makes his first start off the claim for Rob Atras. Perhaps getting back to Aqueduct will suit him, since he was in the best form of his career when racing over this track last winter. However, his form has really fallen apart, and Rob Atras has also been struggling on this circuit for the past several months. Antigravity (#5) makes a little more sense to me. I don’t care too much about the turf race last time, and his prior dirt form makes him a contender. He was overmatched in the Monmouth Cup two back, and he didn’t really get a trainer switch prior to that, since Dan Ward has always been overseeing Jerry Hollendorfer’s Monmouth string. The two major knocks against Antigravity are his propensity to settle for minor awards, and his lack of early speed in his recent starts. That brings me to Swiftsure (#6), who I didn’t originally like in this race. However, I just kept coming back to him as the most logical winner in my handicapping. He is moving up in class out of claiming events, but he beat a decent field last time, and his 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up well against these foes. He has to prove he can handle a mile, but this one-turn configuration should suit him. Horacio De Paz has excellent stats with stretch-outs in general, and this horse is always most dangerous when he can control on the front end.
Fair Value:
#6 SWIFTSURE, at 3-1 or greater
#5 ANTIGRAVITY, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 5
There’s no denying that Caramel Swirl (#1) is a deserving favorite in this Gallant Bloom. She hasn’t been quite good enough to beat the best runners in this division, but she’s awfully dangerous against Grade 2 or Grade 3 company, and has generally been pretty consistent since the start of her 4-year-old season. She put in a dazzling run to sweep past the field in her Vagrancy victory in May, and she followed that up with another good effort in the Bed O Roses. She actually looked like she might win that race at the quarter pole before Goodnight Olive asserted her class. I won’t hold the Ballerina against her, since that race was basically a preview of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. The slight turnback to 6 1/2 furlongs suits her, but she does have to overcome the rail draw in a race that lacks some pace. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring frontrunners, which might lead some handicappers to select Beguine (#4) as the most interesting alternative to the favorite. I’m just not quite convinced that she stacks up against this field from a class standpoint. Beguine has posted some flashy speed figures on occasion, but she’s generally done her best work against weaker company, and I think she could take some money here. Undervalued Asset (#3) is another with tactical speed, and at least she has a little more upside as a 3-year-old. She was beaten by a pretty good horse in Vahva last time at Charles Town, and she had the slightly tougher trip than that foe. I just think she would have to improve again to beat the favorite. My top pick is Sterling Silver (#2). She has the same problem as Caramel Swirl, and is perhaps more pace compromised than that foe. However, I don’t expect this pace to be quite as slow as it looks on paper. Sterling Silver has been steadily improving this year, and appears to be rounding into top form, especially based on her most recent workout. Like the favorite, she had little chance in the Ballerina but was still trying hard in the stretch. I like her going a bit shorter, and I trust her to finish off her race better than Caramel Swirl, who can sometimes flatten out in the last sixteenth.
Fair Value:
#2 STERLING SILVER, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 7
Zandon (#4) is a deserving favorite in this Woodward, but he’s also hard to endorse at a a short price. Any horse who can hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, Travers, Met Mile, and Whitney merits serious respect. It’s just difficult to fathom that a runner with that résumé could still be eligible for an N2X allowance. He has finished ahead of main rival Charge It (#1) in each of their last two meetings, and he’s proven that 9 furlongs might be his best distance. Perhaps he’s just finally getting the class relief that he needs, but he has to show up and deliver. Charge It is an even less trustworthy win candidate, but there’s no denying this horse’s natural ability. We saw the potential when he won the Dwyer last year, but he just hasn’t been able to put it all together since returning for his 4-year-old season. We saw a glimpse of that form in the Suburban two back, but he was defeating a softer field that day with a perfect trip. I wonder that he might struggle from this inside post, especially as a horse who tends to break a step slowly with other speed to his outside. My top pick is O’Connor (#9). He came to the U.S. as a Group 1 winner in Chile, and looked like a promising sort after winning his stateside debut last October. However, his form since then has been inconsistent, and he appeared to tail off during the winter. He returned from a layoff this summer, and I thought he showed progression in two West Virginia starts. He didn’t get the best trip two back when always out of position at Mountaineer. He then found himself in a paceless edition of the Charles Town Classic, as his stablemate wired the field. This horse actually did well to close from last all the way up to second in a race where no one else made a significant closing move. Saffie Joseph has been sending out live runners all over the country in recent months, and this one might be rounding into top form. There’s pace to set up his late run this time, and it’s a good sign that Irad Ortiz has the mount.
Fair Value:
#9 O'CONNOR, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 8
Be the Boss (#2) is clearly the horse to beat as he seeks to break through at this state-bred N1X level after losing photo finishes in each of his last two starts for this condition. This son of Laoban has really improved since switching back to dirt for Mike Maker this summer, pairing up 110 TimeformUS Speed Figures in his last two starts. Those numbers make him a deserving favorite in this spot. However, he was very much with the flow last time, as that race was dominated on the front end despite some quick early fractions. He’s a formidable presence, but he’s going to be an awfully short price, especially with Irad Ortiz taking the mount, and I think some others offer better value. Callaloo (#7) finished fifth, 5 lengths behind the favorite last time, but he seems likely to fare better in this spot. He was returning from a substantial layoff that day going a distance that is a bit short for him. He also didn’t get the best trip, as his rider committed to riding the rail into the stretch, which probably wasn’t the best strategy with this closer. He’s generally done best at a mile, so I like this slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs. He does possess the tactical speed to sit closer to the pace, as long as he breaks cleanly. My top pick is recent maiden winner Rocket and Roll (#9). He’s a new face at this level after winning in his return from a layoff late in the Saratoga meet. That was his first attempt against New York-breds, as he had previously faced open company in his prior maiden attempts at Keeneland and Oaklawn. While he only got a 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that recent victory, his performance was better than the bare result indicates. He got away to a tardy start and spent much of the race in traffic thereafter, getting keen down the backstretch and racing in tight quarters into the far turn. He eventually found a seam in upper stretch and finished gamely to run down a couple of quality pacesetters in a race where no one else made up significant ground. Rocket and Roll should be capable of better second off the layoff, and Brad Cox’s numbers back up that notion. DRF Formulator’s 5-year statistics reveal that Cox is 14 for 38 (37%, $2.28 ROI) second off a 180 to 360-day layoff with horses who won their last start, and he’s 11 for 28 (39%, $2.50 ROI) on dirt within that sample.
Fair Value:
#9 ROCKET AND ROLL, at 2-1 or greater