PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   11 - 2 - 1A - 4
Race 3:   2 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 5:   8 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 6:   6 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 7:   11 - 5 - 13 - 12
Race 8:   1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 9:   7 - 8 - 13 - 10

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 4

Good Rapport (#8) has never won on the dirt, but he’s generally kept better company in his dirt races and ran well last time after getting involved in a fast pace at Saratoga two back. I much preferred him to the now scratched Happy Bob. Yet I think there are others worth considering at better prices. Lucky Lucky Luke (#2) goes back to the dirt after making a belated rally on turf last time. The pace of that race didn’t set up for him, but his plodding style always puts him at the mercy of pace. He is getting some class relief as he drops to this bottom level, but I didn’t see quite enough speed in here to set up his late run. My top pick is Legendary Lore (#3). He’s another that can be pace-compromised at times, but he’s not quite as slow as some others, and has shown tactical speed on occasion. He was facing a much tougher field two back when he showed speed and faded at Saratoga. He made his first start off the claim for Carlos Martin last time and was never involved against a stronger group at Parx. Yet he didn’t get the best trip that day, never in a great position to rally while searching for a clear path around the far turn. I think he’s dropping back down to a level at which he can be competitive, and the price should be fair enough.

Fair Value:
#3 LEGENDARY LORE, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 6

The likely favorite in this maiden special weight is Silo Ridge (#4). He showed speed and faded on debut at Saratoga going the demanding 7-furlong distance. He apparently got quite a bit out of that race, as he was much more effective next time out. Again asked to go 7 furlongs in his second start, he tracked the pace and gamely chased home the eventual winner while clear of some talented rivals in behind. He earned a flashy 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, and the number looks totally legitimate based on a series of strong runbacks out of that race. Winner Digitize returned to win his next start in fast time. He picks up Irad Ortiz and appears to have found a much softer field than he met last time. I prefer his main rival Phelpsy (#6). This $1 million yearling purchase has taken a little while to come around. He was a disappointment as a 2-year-old, but he appears to have returned as an improved horse this year. He closed well going this distance off the layoff at Aqueduct in April, and then ran the best race of his career at Monmouth last time. He got off to a very slow start, and rushed up to contest an honest pace. He had every right to throw in the towel, but battled all the way to the wire, begrudgingly settling for second. Now the blinkers come off, so I would expect him to break better this time. I don’t mind the slight turnback for him, and he’s likely better than his overall form indicates.

Fair Value:
#6 PHELPSY, at 9-5 or greater