PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   4 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 4:   8 - 9 - 6 - 2
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 6 - 10
Race 6:   6 - 2 - 8 - 4
Race 7:   9 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 8:   7 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 9:   9 - 6 - 2 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: F F ROCKET (#4)

I struggled with this $20k claimer and ultimately couldn’t justify picking any of the short prices because they all have their flaws. Quick Return (#6) put in a big effort to win off the claim for Joe Sharp two back, and one can make the argument that he was simply in too tough against optional claiming foes last time. However, he did regress for Gustavo Rodriguez, whose barn has been very cold lately, going 0 for his last 29 with just 5 hitting the board. In Sky We Trust (#5) would be competitive here if able to repeat his effort from 8 days ago, but that was at a lower level for a good claiming barn. Carlos Martin doesn’t have great stats with this move and he figures to take some money as the mount of Irad Ortiz. Winning Drive (#2) can step forward off the claim for Rob Atras, but his form does little for me. Pianzi (#3) ran well out of town last time, but he really found his best form for Jamie Ness and I’m skeptical he can hold it together for the new barn. Given my distrust of those runners, I’ve landed on F F Rocket (#4). While some may be reluctant to take this barn, Lolita Shivmangal has had success when her runners are spotted appropriately, and this horse has actually run fine in his races since getting claimed by her. He was simply in over his head at the starter level, and now he’s taking a needed drop in class. Six furlongs is on the short side for him, but he has the tactical speed to stay within range early and will be a fair price.

WIN: #4 F F Rocket, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 4: MONTATHAM (#8)

There appears to be plenty of pace in this allowance affair, which could work against potential favorite King Angelo (#6). This horse beat a decent field at Saratoga in July and did so in fast time. However, he benefited from a clear early lead and it seems unlikely he can work out the same trip this time given the presence of speeds like Ikigai (#2) and Fluid Situation (#7). The other runner who figures to take money is Gianni Lambo (#9), and I do think he’s dangerous. He has the right running style for this race, as she showed the ability close from off the pace in his return from the layoff last time. The winner of that race is quite talented, but Gianni Lambo was never a serious threat while just picking up pieces late. He’s a major player, but I don’t think he’ll be much price with Irad Ortiz retaining the mount. If I’m going to take a closer, I’d rather go for a longshot like Montatham (#8). He might look overmatched at this level at first glance, since he hasn’t officially won a starter allowance yet. However, his speed figures stack up pretty well against this field, I’m skeptical that the shorter prices will be able to produce their best form in this spot. While he was legitimately taken down two back, he ran quite well to cross the wire first that day, and I thought he put in a similarly strong performance last time as the only horse to close in a race dominated up front. Joseph Lee’s runners rarely take much money, but this horse has run well for him and should get the right setup here.

WIN: #8 Montatham, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 5: GENERAL BANKER (#4)

The first inclination for many in this maiden special weight will be to lean towards lightly raced runners, and there are certainly a few of those to consider. Liar’s Poker (#6) has the pedigree to be successful in a spot like this, since she’s out of 6-time turf winner Epping Forest, who was primarily a sprinter. However, this colt is by Empire Maker, so he appears to be spotted appropriately. Christophe Clement does fairly well with first time starters, but this feels like one who could take money. The two first time turfers with the best pedigrees are Sounds Spooky (#5) and Stow On the Wold (#10). The former goes out for strong connections, and should handle turf as a son of Mendelssohn out of a dam who has produced turf winners Fast N Fearious and Gambler’s Fallacy. He didn’t run that well on debut, but could benefit from that start. Stow on the Wold figures to be a much bigger price and you have to search a bit deeper for his turf breeding, as his dam hails from a strong family, being a half-sister to G1-winning European turf horse Campanaologist. I’m instead siding with experience. General Banker (#4) ran fine in his first couple of turf starts sprinting, but I thought he took a step forward when stretched out on turf two back. He was off a step slowly that day and then was always in an awkward position under Jose Gomez. He appeared to have plenty of run at the quarter pole, but had trouble working his way into the clear and ultimately finished with something left while running on through traffic. I like the addition of blinkers, and would hope that he’s more forwardly placed this time.

WIN: #4 General Banker, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6: TROUBLESHOOTER (#6)

I have mixed feelings about both likely favorites in this allowance event. Truancy (#2) is a 3-year-old filly facing males for the first time while stepping up an allowance condition. That’s a pretty tall order, but she does have the speed figures to beat a field like this, and her tactical speed should make her dangerous. I do question the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles more than anything else, but she does have talent. I’m more against Bossmakinbossmoves (#4), who seems like the rare horse who significantly moves up over wet tracks. He caught his favorite kind of going both two and three back, and may have taken advantage of a weak edition of the Albany. I’m skeptical that he can reproduce that form here. There is pace in this race to set up his late run, but I wanted other closers. The horse that interests me most is Troubleshooter (#6). I know he looks a little slower than the two favorites on speed figures, but I think his form has been subtly improving this year. He was no match for Tiergan two back, but did close well for second that day. He won at a short price last time at Finger Lakes, but I liked the way he finished into a moderate pace. He can be a little lazy, so Manny Franco feels like a good fit for him and I think he’s well suited to this stretch-out to 9 furlongs. I could also use Six Percent (#8), who won ran very well going this distance at Saratoga two back and just didn’t seem to run his race at Finger Lakes last time.

WIN: #6 Troubleshooter, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7: STRASBOURG (#9)

This conditioned claiming event appears to be one of the most wide open races on the card, so I’m a little reluctant to settle for short prices. Hang Tight (#1) makes a certain amount of sense as he makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. He’s an improving 3-year-old who closed well against a similar field last time. Horses have done well when claimed off his prior trainer, and I liked that initially targeted a tougher spot with him before this race came up. He just doesn’t figure to be much price. Mister Candy Ride (#6) could also take money, but I have no idea how to regard his chances. He’s exiting the Linda Rice barn as he makes his first start for Mike Maker. The layoff and poor efforts when last seen are a concern, and it seems like a bad sign that he’s not taking advantage of the claiming waiver rule. Joey Loose Lips (#2)tried a tougher spot off the claim last time and should appreciate getting some class relief. It’s unclear how much pace will develop to his outside, but he does possess the tactical speed to be forward. I want to instead go for a new face with Strasbourg (#9). His maiden win at Monmouth last time came up a pretty slow race, but he was much the best that day after getting hung out extremely wide in the run around the clubhouse turn. He’s never gone this short before, but he strikes me as one that could benefit from the slight turnback in distance. He ran competitive speed figures against some decent maiden fields earlier this year and is drawn well outside, which should give Javier Castellano some options.

WIN: #9 Strasbourg, at 6-1 or greater