PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 3:   9 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 5:   12 - 2B - 13 - 11
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 7:   1 - 6 - 3 - 8
Race 8:   13 - 11 - 9
Race 9:   2 - 9 - 7 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

Just Call Ray (#6) is probably the horse to beat as he makes his first start off the claim for Rob Atras. This stable appears to be emerging from a monthslong slump, having sent out some live runners in recent weeks at Aqueduct. Just Call Ray comes off a solid effort at this level last month, where he was conservatively ridden until upper stretch before staying on late to finish second. Yet now he’s stretching out to 9 furlongs, and it’s unclear if he really wants to go this far. He didn’t handle 1 1/4 miles when he tried it at Saratoga three back. In some ways, his form makes him the most reliable horse in here, but I didn’t want to default to him at a short price. Bold Victory (#4) is another to consider as he moves up in class off a win at the $12,500 level. Yet he beat a weak field that day and is now going out first off the claim for a new barn. My top pick is Higher Quality (#1). He seems like one that could fly under the radar once again for a barn that typically is underrated by the bettors. He’s just dropping back into a realistic spot after trying tougher starter allowance foes in his last race. He didn’t run well that day, but he also got very agitated before the race, and seemed to exert too much energy when unsettled on track in the post parade and warm-up. It’s definitely worth watching him before this race, but he can beat this field if he gets back into the form that we saw from him two back at Pimlico.

Fair Value:
#1 HIGHER QUALITY, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 6

This $35k conditioned claimer seems truly wide open. Everlys Girl (#2) makes plenty of sense on numbers coming off the claim for David Jacobson, shipping in from California. She appears to fit at this level, but she’s never been a horse who loves to win races and she figures to take some money in this spot. Rudy Rodriguez will only go with the preferred half of his entry, Howzyourcashflow (#1), who got an awkward trip when she returned at Delaware last time. It’s possible that she just doesn’t want to go a mile, and she got shuffled back before angling wide and flattening out. I expect her to get a more aggressive ride this time as she adds blinkers. She’s the most likely winner in my view and she's a little easier to endorse now that her entrymate is scratched. My top pick is Proud Foot (#5). It appears that this Linda Rice runner has gone off form, but I think she’s been in some of the wrong spots recently. She doesn’t seem to appreciate extra distance, so it was asking a lot of her to go a mile last time. She set the pace, but found herself on top of a dead rail, and came up empty in the stretch. She’s better than that, and I think she can rebound as she turns back in distance and drops slightly in class. Though, I would want to let price be my guid when deciding between Proud Foot and Howzyourcashflow.

Fair Value:
#5 PROUD FOOT, at 7-2 or greater
#1 HOWZYOURCASHFLOW, at 3-1 or greater