PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 6 - 8 - 7
Race 2:   2 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   14 - 12 - 1 - 13
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 6:   10 - 8 - 2
Race 7:   5 - 8 - 4 - 1
Race 8:   2 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 9:   9 - 8 - 7 - 4
Race 10:   6 - 10 - 8 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 5

Venti Valentine (#5) has put together a solid résumé competing at the NY-bred stakes level, and is now seeking her third consecutive victory against this kind of competition. She’s generally been best in one-turn mile events, but she did stretch out to two turns effectively last time at Finger Lakes, beating an overmatched field. She doesn’t have much of a speed figure advantage, but she’s in great form and just feels like a strong fit for this race given the competition. I prefer her to Tough Street (#6), who could take money going out for Chad Brown as she moves into stakes company for the first time. I just have serious questions about her getting this 9-furlong distance after she regressed going this far last time. My top pick is Know It All Audrey (#2). Unlike the aforementioned pair, we already know she can transfer her form to 1 1/8 miles. She's been a great claim, picked up for just $16k a little over a year ago. She has consistently picked up checks while ascending into tougher company. While she hasn’t been successful at the stakes level yet, she’s held her form fairly well when moving into those races. The barn has been a little cold in recent months, but this filly has continued to perform well and she projects to get a good trip from this inside post position. I also don’t want to completely dismiss April Antics (#1) getting a piece of this at a big price. She’s slower than the main contenders, but she’s been improving all the time for this barn and does handle the distance.

Fair Value:
#2 KNOW IT ALL AUDREY, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8

It's understandable that the connections of El Grande O (#1) wanted to take a shot in the Grade 1 Champagne given his ascending form, but that was a tall order for him facing some of the best 2-year-olds in the land. Prior to that he had earned a series of speed figures that tower over this field. That said, he still must prove that he can get a mile, and he was taking advantage of a speed bias in that big win two back. He’s also drawn the rail in a race that features plenty of other speed, so he might have tough trip coming. Anything close to his better efforts will probably beat this field, but he does have some questions to answer at a very short price. The only real alternatives to this horse, in my view, are those who finished behind him in the Bertram F. Bongard. Aggelos the Great (#3) ran fine to finish second, but he was just chasing the leaders around the track. Skyler’s Starship (#4) does feel like one who should run better here after he lost contact with the field in the early stages last time. He had shown improved tactical speed prior to that, and isn’t supposed to mind this distance. Yet he’s picking up Irad Ortiz, which could hurt the price. My top pick is the Bongard third-place finisher Bonne Chance (#2). He was no match for El Grande O in that last race, but he was at least staying on late over a track that appeared to be favoring speed. I liked the way he finished on debut, accelerating well after having to alter course in upper stretch. He’s bred to get a mile, out of a dam who won routing on dirt and being a half-brother to a multiple dirt route winner. He has the right kind of running style for a race loaded with speed, and I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best he has to offer.

Fair Value:
#2 BONNE CHANCE, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

Ny Traffic (#8) is probably the horse to beat as he returns to the New York-bred stakes level after winning his return from a lengthy layoff last time. At his best, he’s a graded stakes caliber runner. However, his form was a little spotty last year, so I’m not going to take it for granted that he will run back to that big effort off the layoff. He does draw well towards the outside, and he lands in a race that features plenty of early speed. It just feels like he’s a little too obvious, and will be overbet with Irad Ortiz aboard. Today’s Flavor (#2) has shown plenty of talent on dirt, but he’s drawn inside of the fleetfooted Win for Gold, who figures to be intent on making the lead. I suspect he has a tough trip coming, and I didn’t even think he ran as well as Thin White Duke (#7) last time. Thin White Duke appears to fit the pace scenario very well in this spot, as one of the few true closers in the race. However, I want some confirmation that he’s actually a dirt horse after handling a sloppy sealed track last time. The closer that I prefer is Ocean’s Reserve (#4). He’s probably not quite good enough to win the race, but he usually shows up with an honest effort and figures to be picking up pieces at the end. My top pick is Rotknee (#9). It’s possible that he’s tailing off after attaining such strong form over the summer. Yet I think he's had some excuses in his last couple of races. He didn’t get away that well two back and was a little slow into stride against a very strong allowance field at Saratoga. Then last time he got passed from the outside early and was forced to take up on the backstretch before making an early move to lead at the quarter pole. That race came apart late, but he never gave up. I like the outside draw once again, and I think we could see a return to form.

Fair Value:
#9 ROTKNEE, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 10

I don’t love picking short prices in competitive race, but I don’t think Drake’s Passage (#6) is going to be some overwhelming choice in this Empire Classic. He just seems like a deserving favorite, and I’m not trying to beat him. This horse took a huge step forward when he returned for his 3-year-old debut this summer, and he validated that improvement in the Albany. He was beating a weaker field that day, but he handled the task impressively, winning with ease while appearing to relish the 9-furlong distance. His last effort was disappointing, as he was expected to beat that allowance field as the odds-on choice. Yet I still thought he fought gamely that day against a group that may have been stronger than it appeared on the way in. We have already seen also-ran Signator return to win with an improved number. Drake’s Passage should be tighter after that hard effort, and we already know he runs well without Lasix, which is a question mark for some others. His main rival Straight Arrow (#10) has that and several other questions to answer in this spot, but there’s no denying the talent that he displayed last time. That race got rained off the turf, but he was still meeting some solid dirt horses and he absolutely embarrassed them, running clear to a 9-length score. That 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the top number in this field. However, now he has to do it over a fast track while stretching out to 9 furlongs for the first time. He also drew post 10, which means he probably won’t get the same trip as last time. I have some doubts about this being the right spot, but he’s pretty good. I could also use a pair of Linda Rice runners. Curlin’s Wisdom (#1)put in a strong effort in this race last year, and probably needed a break this spring after his form tailed off. He’s good enough to factor here on his best day, and Linda Rice can have one ready off the layoff. Un Ojo (#8) hasn’t yet shown the quality of some others, but he ran deceptively well in his first start for the Linda Rice barn at Pimlico. Then last time he was on the wrong surface, and now he’s getting back to what he does best. I could also consider Olympic Dreams (#4), who defeated that foe on Aug. 2 in Saratoga. Yet I was disappointed by his last race and it took him a while to return to the worktab after that. I wonder if he’s heading in the wrong direction.

Fair Value:
#6 DRAKE'S PASSAGE, at 5-2 or greater