PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 11 - 1 - 10
Race 2:   5 - 4 - 7 - 8
Race 3:   5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 5:   6 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 6:   6 - 7 - 8 - 5
Race 7:   2 - 9 - 6 - 5
Race 8:   4 - 7 - 10 - 5
Race 9:   2 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 10:   5 - 1 - 7 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: WAR TERMINATOR (#5)

I do quite like this turnback for expected favorite Frank’s Art (#4). I didn’t get the sense that stretching out was the right move for him when he went two turns over the summer, and maintain that view even though he ran fine in those races. He got rank when attempting to settle behind horses last time and only produced a muted run through the stretch. He displayed an explosive turn of foot in his career debut and I think he’ll handle this shorter trip. I just don’t love the likely short price on him, especially since I’m fond of one of his rivals. War Terminator (#5) got a tougher trip than Frank’s Art when they met on Aug. 10. He was 2 to 3-wide around the track during a time when rail position was essential on the inner turf course. He’s another who is better off going a little shorter than that. He stayed in that off the turf race last time, but now he’s getting back on the right surface. I don’t know why there’s been a trainer switch to Rob Atras, but this seems like a lateral move for a horse who just appears to be getting back into the right spot. The other horse that I would include at a price is Courageous Oh La (#7). He rarely gets much respect going out for low-profile connections, but he’s run well in all of his recent starts on this circuit, including a couple of turf tries. There is other speed in this race, but he appears to be quicker than the rest early and could take them a long way up front.

WIN: #5 War Terminator, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 4,7

RACE 4: BROOKLYN STRONG (#7)

It’s hard to envision there being anything but a contested pace in this Empire Classic with so much speed signed on. Horses like Sea Foam (#3) and Dr. Blute (#4) look committed to going for the early lead, and Montebello (#1) has also done some of his best running from the front end. Among those, Sea Foam probably has the best chance to keep going given his prior experience at this 9-furlong distance. However, it’s unclear if he’s the same horse that he was last winter. He got run down after working out a good trip off the layoff in the Evan Shipman and then last time he blew the start at Pimlico. I prefer some runners who can rally from just off the pace. Barese (#2) is probably the horse to beat in that group, even though he’s winless at this distance. He actually ran very well in the Wood Memorial going this trip earlier in the year, and last time in the Albany he got run down by a horse who loves the mud. He fits with this group and will be tough to beat if he runs his best race. Curlin’s Wisdom (#5) is the new face in this division as he has quickly ascended the New York-bred class ladder. He’s seeking his fourth victory in a row, but he did prove he might be best going this elongated distance last time. He just has to do it again coming back in 14 days. My top pick is Brooklyn Strong (#7). I know his recent form leaves something to be desired, but he is one of the few horses in this race who is clearly better with added ground. He proved that when he finished third in the 12-furlong Greenwood Cup last time. Yet he doesn’t need marathon distances and was a Remsen winner over this course and distance as a 2-year-old. I liked the way he stayed on late in the Evan Shipman two back, and get the sense that he’s slowly but surely rounding into form.

WIN: #7 Brooklyn Strong, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7: SECURITY CODE (#2)

I’m curious to see how the public bets this race. I think I’m Just Kiddin (#6) might deserve to be favored as she gets back on dirt. She did seem to take a step forward on turf in her second start, but I like that she at least showed she could handle added ground in the Miss Grillo last time. While it is more of a turf pedigree on the dam’s side, she’s a daughter of Justify and might just have a class edge over this field. I’d much rather take her at a short price than Gambling Girl (#5). In general, I don’t want the fillies who did well in the Joseph A. Gimma last time, as the horses who were forward and stayed out of the kickback dominated that race. I want to give Security Code (#2) another chance, and she’s my top pick in here. She finished far back in the Gimma, but I don’t want to be too hard on her for that performance. She was racing inside and behind horses, where she just appeared to get discouraged. I liked both of her races at Saratoga, and her effort two back was flattered when runner-up Stonewall Star came back to run well twice out of that affair. Added distance is not supposed to be a concern, since she’s a half-sister to Blewitt, who wanted to go even farther than this. The other horse that I want to use is Silver Skillet (#9). She’s just a maiden stepping up against winners, but I think she’s run a bit better than it might appear in both of her starts. She made multiple moves in her debut before flattening out, and last time was a victim of kickback when having to run through traffic on the turn. She’s another who is supposed to do better at this one-mile trip, and the price should be fair.

WIN: #2 Security Code, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 6,9

RACE 8: FINEST WORK (#4)

I’m not trying to beat Finest Work (#4) here, even though she’ll be a short price than last time. This filly upset the Hettinger at 8-1, but that victory shouldn’t have been much of a surprise, as she’s been subtly improving all year long. She was a little unlucky when she was beaten by Marvelous Maude at Saratoga three back, and she was a comfortable winner at Monmouth in early September. She unleashed a terrific turn of foot to take over in upper stretch last time before getting a bit leg weary in the last sixteenth. If anything, turning back one-sixteenth of a mile will only help her cause. Marvelous Maude (#7) also put in a good effort in defeat last time, but I don’t see why she’s supposed to turn the tables here. She’s typically overbet, as she was in the Hettinger, where she couldn’t quite catch Finest Work. I liked the way she found another gear to make it close late, but I think the slightly shorter distance of this race will work to Finest Work’s advantage instead. Runaway Rumour (#5) was also right there at the finish last time, but she’s lost 11 straight races. Perhaps the interesting new face is Spungie (#10), who showed real promise as a younger filly last year. She hasn’t run quite as fast in two starts since returning from a lengthy layoff, but her last victory was a step in the right direction and she could still have upside. I’ll use her underneath.

WIN: #4 Finest Work, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 7,10

RACE 9: SUNSET LOUISE (#2)

I’m not particularly fond of either potential favorite in this Empire Distaff. Brattle House (#7) and Let Her Inspire U (#8) have been pretty popular with the bettors lately and could vie for favoritism here. The former seems especially dubious to me as she stretches out around two turns for the first time in her career. I’ve never thought added distance helps Brattle House, and she didn’t have any excuse to lose at a short price last time. She has met some solid open company rivals lately, but she’s failed to step forward since registering two runaway victories at Belmont earlier this year. Let Her Inspire U did handle the 9-furlong distance when she was a close second in the Fleet Indian, but I still don’t think this longer trip is a natural fit for her. She had to work harder than expected to win an allowance race at a short price last time, and I think the added ground works more to the advantage of the two fillies who finished just behind her. Caragate (#3)was third that day, and was arguably staying on best of all at the end of the race. She’s won going this distance before and seems like one of the few in here who is really suited to the 1 1/8 miles. She just has to get a little faster, and I think the horse who finished between these two in that Sep. 24 affair has a bit more upside. Sunset Louise (#2) hasn’t ever gone 9 furlongs, but she strikes me as one that will handle it. A daughter of Tonalist, she’s a full-sister to solid allowance performer The Reds, who has run well going this far. I loved her effort at Saratoga two back when she drew off impressively in a commanding performance. She found herself in an unfamiliar position on the lead last time after a surprisingly alert break, and she hung on well after setting some honest fractions. I like her stretching out and think she’s one of the few in this field who still might have a step forward in her. I would also use Ice Princess (#5), since she arguably has the most and best experience going this trip. However, I do wonder if her best days are behind her now.

WIN: #2 Sunset Louise, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 3,5

RACE 10: STARQUIST (#5)

This Sleepy Hollow looks totally wide open. I suppose Arctic Arrogance (#1) is still the horse to beat despite losing the Bertram F. Bongard as the heavy favorite. There was some hype about this colt when he made his debut at Saratoga, and he delivered, winning pretty comfortably as the 5-2 favorite. He then looked like he might draw off to an easy victory in upper stretch last time, but couldn’t withstand the late challenge of longshot Jackson Heights (#7), who is back in here. Perhaps that’s evidence that added ground won’t help Arctic Arrogance, but lone sibling Overstep was second in this race last year. I also don’t want to completely discount Jackson Heights, who ran a legitimate race last time and may just be an improving horse. As for those coming off maiden wins, Canarsie (#2) figures to take money, and there was a lot to like about this one’s debut. He was dueling inside of rivals on the turn, backed off at the top of the stretch when he got put in tight, but then came to the outside and ran down the horse who had previously put him away. That rival, D'ont Lose Cruz, came back to win this week with a solid speed figure. The pedigree appears to lean more towards sprinting, but the tenacity this one displayed on debut should help him get the mile. I’m going for a different debut winner. Starquist (#5)probably wasn’t meeting the strongest field when he debuted here just 21 days ago, but he did turn in an eye-catching performance. He actually broke on top but then dropped back greenly midway through the race. He looked hopelessly beaten in upper stretch, but found another gear to run by the field with big, loping strides. He appears to be one that will stretch out, and his pedigree supports that. The dam was a stakes winner going 9 furlongs on dirt, and Nyquist is a solid route influence, so the distance isn’t supposed to be a problem. John Kimmel is 0 for 4 with last-out debut winners on dirt over 5 years, but 3 of those hit the board, 2 in stakes races.

WIN: #5 Starquist, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 1,2,7