PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 7 - 6
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   3 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   8 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 7:   9 - 1
Race 8:   7 - 3 - 10 - 4
Race 9:   7 - 5 - 8 - 2

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 4

While I’m not way against either favorite in this state-bred allowance affair, I’m not exactly thrilled with them either. Clover Street (#6) has run pretty well at this level before, finishing second in May and June against tougher fields than the one she encounters here. They experimented with turf last time, but she’s more of a dirt horse and is just getting back on the right surface. Big Bean Christine (#2) has run some of the fastest speed figures in this field, and has done so over wet tracks, which is more than her main rival can claim. She arguably hasn’t been at her best in two starts since returning from a layoff this summer for Ray Handal. However, she faced tougher rivals on both occasions and is getting some subtle class relief this time. I’m just taking a shot against them with a horse who I think has upside. Queens Masterpiece (#3) was visually impressive winning her debut as a 2-year-old, making a wide, early move on the far turn to take over before holding off the closers. She actually took a step forward despite losing her second start. She didn’t break that sharply but again made a nice move around the far turn before flattening out. A poor start compromised her when last seen, but she also had little chance to make an impact against Maple Leaf Mel. She’s now returning from a layoff getting back on the dirt, and she might be capable of running a faster speed figure with routine improvement.

Fair Value:
#3 QUEENS MASTERPIECE, at 4-1 or greater