by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 2:   5 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   6 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   1A - 6 - 8 - 4
Race 5:   9 - 6 - 5 - 10
Race 6:   1 - 3 - 11 - 5
Race 7:   1 - 8 - 5 - 9
Race 8:   3 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   2 - 7 - 8 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

 
RACE 2

Get the Candy (#2) looks pretty appealing at first glance in this state-bred turf sprint. She appears to be the controlling speed, and she’s exiting a series of open company races. She did face a nice horse in winner Chambeau last time, but I still would have liked to see her have a bit more to offer through the lane. I don’t trust her to run back to that career-best figure she earned at Gulfstream in April, and it’s not as if her prior form at this level makes her terribly formidable for a horse who is going to be a short price. I’m more interested in Im Just Kiddin (#6) among the potential favorites. I just thinking turning back to sprints might be what she needs after she’s lacked finish in her recent route attempts. She got a wide trip two back and was chasing a pace that completely fell apart last time, so she has had excuses. I also think she might have won her last turf sprint back in April had her rider displayed a bit more urgency. Yet I think the best value could lie with a pair of familiar faces at this level. Fontanafredda (#4) has won for this condition before, and was unlucky to lose when she dropped back down to this level last time. She broke slowly and raced 3 to 4-wide around the far turn, striking the front in mid-stretch before getting run down by a perfect trip winner. Her overall form is obscured by some tries against tougher company, and she makes plenty of sense here. My top pick is Masterof the Tunes (#5), who might be the best price of those I’m considering. I thought she was mildly unlucky last time when briefly held up in traffic as she tried to launch a rally in mid-stretch. That was a time when I thought outside paths were preferred on the Mellon turf, and she spent a lot of time towards the rail. She finished up well when she finally angled out. She’s been in strong form this year ever since she added blinkers. That equipment has enhanced her tactical speed, which should be an asset in a race that lacks much pace.

Fair Value:
#5 MASTEROF THE TUNES, at 9-2 or greater
#4 FONTANAFREDDA, at 9-2 or greater
 

RACE 3

Faith in Humanity (#1) figures to be a heavy favorite as she returns from a layoff for Chad Brown. This filly has done little wrong in her career, winning 3 of 4 starts with her only loss coming to stablemate Gina Romantica in last year’s Riskaverse. She subsequently turned the tables on that rival in the Pebbles, with the benefit of a favorable pace setup. The form of that race was flattered when Gina Romantica returned to win the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. The issue for Faith in Humanity is that she has only managed to make one start in the year since then, and that came over 6 months ago at Gulfstream. She achieved her second career Grade 3 victory in that Honey Fox, but arguably ran the second best race, as White Frost was catching her late after getting held up in traffic. This filly will be a handful if she returns in top form, but I think she’s a little overrated due to two perfect trips in a row. It's hard for me to build a case for any of the other runners with turf form to upset her. Messidor (#2) ran some nice races in 2022, but her form this year has been subpar. Traffic Song (#5) has earned some decent speed figures, but seems to do her best running at Gulfstream. She also has a similar style to the favorite, which could make her trip difficult. Looking for an alternative, I’m more intrigued by the first time turfer Favor (#6). This filly obviously has quality, having achieved a Grade 2 placing in the Fair Grounds Oaks as a 3-year-old. Her form since then has been a little inconsistent, but I’m intrigued by her getting this surface change. The pedigree for grass isn’t overwhelming, but it’s there. Pioneerof the Nile is a solid 13% turf route influence. The dam never tried turf, but she is a full-sister to Bianco Tartufo, a turf winner who was stakes-placed on grass. Furthermore, Todd Pletcher has strong stats with this move. According to DRF Formulator, he is 9 for 37 (24%, $3.40 ROI) with horses trying turf for the first time in allowance turf routes over the past 5 years. Included among the winners in that sample are future Grade 1 winners Colonel Liam and Up to the Mark.

Fair Value:
#6 FAVOR, at 3-1 or greater
 

RACE 5

A few of these faced off in the Aug. 3 race at this level. B D Saints (#6) is clearly the one you want out of that affair, as he had a pretty rough trip. The comment line “horrific journey” is a little reductive, but it’s not inaccurate. This horse got rank heading into the clubhouse turn, eventually settled down, but then clipped heels in mid-stretch when attempting to find a clear path. He’s clearly better than that result, and he also had a difficult trip in his other turf start on debut. I like him getting back on this surface for Linda Rice and view him as the horse to beat. The interesting new face in this lineup is Charging Fast (#5), who debuts for Chad Brown. He has plenty of pedigree, as a half-brother to 4 turf winners. These connections are obviously dangerous on debut, but I don’t expect this horse to be much of a price. I want to go in a different direction with Vin Santo (#9). This horse might not get the respect he deserves after running surprisingly well in his debut against open company at Saratoga. That was a tougher race than anyone else is exiting, and he more than held his own against that field, despite racing greenly. He was never on the rail, chasing outside as he launched a rally around the far turn. He got pushed out dramatically in mid-stretch by a green rival, and then gave it right back as he lugged in badly under a right handed whip thereafter. He finished up well once Katie Davis finally got him straightened out. He figures to benefit from that effort, and now he’s dropping in class to face New York-breds. The connections will scare of some people off, but that only figures to ensure a square price.

Fair Value:
#9 VIN SANTO, at 4-1 or greater
 

RACE 6

This starter allowance event might be one of the most interesting races on the card, as you can build a case for many runners in this wide open field. The horse to beat is probably Quality G (#6), who returns at the same level after he was a voided claim when last seen at Saratoga. He acted up badly in the gate that day before running well once they finally got the race off. It was dominated on the front end, but he also rode the rail throughout in a race where saving ground seemed to be an advantage. He makes sense here, but his form is totally exposed and I think others are more interesting. Willintoriskitall (#5) is an intriguing new face at the level, dropping out of a pair of stakes races. The connections got pretty ambitious after claiming him for out of a maiden claimer in June, but he validated that faith with a pair of solid efforts at Saratoga. He had little chance to close on July 20 and then battled on gamely for third last time against a better group. I’m interested to see what he can do against a field like this. I also want to take note of AE entrant Front Man (#11) drawing into the field. He had little chance trying to close inside last time during a time when the outside paths were preferred on the Mellon course, and prior to that he was compromised by a slow pace. He's better than the recent form indicates, and is often underrated. There are a couple of prices drawn towards the inside that might offer value. Bricco (#3) is a horse that many will dismiss based on his seemingly poor recent form. However, he didn’t get the right trip two back when chasing a fast pace outside. Then last time he was always out of position but was running on well late in a race dominated by forward runners. Sonic Speed got a similar trip in that spot and has since improved. I’m encouraged that there’s no drop in class, and he’s drawn well inside. My top pick is Extreme Access (#1). This horse faced some good ones when he initially stretched out on turf for the prior barn. He ran a game race behind Tee At One at Tampa in April, and that’s a race from which multiple horses improved their speed figures, including the winner, who would go on to finish second in the Kent Stakes. He obviously caught a tough field against Grade 1 Saratoga Derby winner Program Trading after that. He made his first start off the claim for Rob Falcone last time, and put in an impressive effort. He got a bit keen in the first half of the race, and made an early move to take over on the backstretch before holding sway easily in the lane. This is a tougher field, but he’s competitive on speed figures and may be a fair price due to the unfamiliar apprentice rider.

Fair Value:
#1 EXTREME ACESS, at 7-1 or greater
#3 BRICCO, at 12-1 or greater
 

RACE 9

Lachaise (#7) is clearly the horse to beat in this state-bred allowance event. His only prior start against New York-breds came in his career debut, where he won despite racing greenly. He’s been thrown into some tough spots ever since then, trying a pair of graded stakes before running into future Grade 1 winner Program Trading in that allowance race last time. He looks like a logical winner based on all of those factors. However, I wish I saw him do a little more running in his two starts this season. He got a great trip in the Pennine Ridge and just lacked finish and then last time he had little offer late. Physically, I’m not sure he’s gone on much since last year and I just wonder about his overall upside at a short price. My top pick is Sonic Speed (#2). This horse got the wrong trip when always too far back behind a moderate pace going 7 furlongs off the layoff. He rebounded with a victory against claimers when stretched out to this distance at Belmont. He then cut back at Delaware over soft turf, and actually ran on well for a minor award behind a winner who would go on to collect a stakes victory in his next start. Last time Sonic Speed was in good position early, but then vacated the inside to launch a 3-wide rally on the far turn. That was probably the wrong move in a race where the top two finishers saved all the ground. I like his post position this time and he figures to fly under the radar again.

Fair Value:
#2 SONIC SPEED, at 5-1 or greater