PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 3 - 1A - 6
Race 2:   5 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   2 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 4:   2 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 5:   3 - 8 - 1A - 5
Race 6:   6 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 7:   5 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 12 - 10
Race 10:   6 - 4 - 5 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: MONTEPULCIANO (#2)

This is one of two one-mile maiden dirt events for two-year-olds on this card, with this race featuring the juvenile males. There are a few runners in this line-up who took money on debut at Saratoga, and they all have a license to improve on the stretch-out with that experience under their belts. Ohana Honor (#1A) obviously makes sense after closing up the rail for second when he made his first start going 6 furlongs. He has a pedigree to stretch out and looks like one that can improve, though he’s going to be a short price as part of a coupled entry. Expected Value (#6) is another who ran well on debut and could step forward, though Chad Brown does not have strong statistics with these types of stretch-outs. I’m most interested in a couple of second time starters who disappointed on debut at the Spa. One of those is Skellig (#3), who was all the rage when he got bet down to 7-5 in his first start in mid-August. However, he ran like a colt who just needed the race, as he was never really engaged while racing wide most of the way. Watching his workouts, he gives the impression of one who should want to go longer, even though his pedigree doesn’t necessarily say that. John Terranova is 9 for 36 (25%, $2.64 ROI) with maiden second time starters on dirt over the past 5 years. My top pick is Montepulciano (#2), who is also looking to rebound after getting beaten as the favorite on debut. He made his first start on turf, and didn’t run quite as badly as his last-place finish might suggest. He was far too aggressive in the early stages, setting an unreasonably fast pace in a race that ultimately collapsed late. I also wonder if turf is really the right surface for him. He has a versatile pedigree, and he’s trained very well on the main track at Saratoga since that debut. I expect him to show speed from the inside under Jose Lezcano and he may just take them all the way up front.

WIN: #2 Montepulciano, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 3

RACE 3: ROSIA BAY (#2)

Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this one-mile turf race for maiden fillies. Veronica Greene (#8) is arguably the horse to beat off her last performance. She showed marked improvement on turf, coming with a nice late run after working out a decent trip from mid-pack. She just couldn’t catch winner Jane Mast, who may have some quality. Two horses have already come back to win out of that race, including fourth-place Herington Rocket. She’s a deserving favorite, but she faces a real rival in her stablemate Kinchen (#7), who returns from a lengthy layoff. The barn thought enough of this filly to give her a shot in the G2 Miss Grillo last year as a maiden. She put in a solid effort to be second that day, finishing ahead of highly regarded stablemate McKulick. She bviously had talent last year, and should fit well amongst this group with routine improvement off the layoff. Chad Brown is 20 for 62 (32%, $2.50 ROI) with maidens off 180+ day layoffs in turf routes over 5 years. They both make sense, but I’m most interested in a bigger price. Rosia Bay (#2) faced some good ones in both career starts earlier this year. She closed mildly to get up for fourth in her debut behind Walkathon, who would reel off 3 consecutive victories, including a win over McKulick in the G3 Regret. The second and third-place finishers also returned from that race to win with improved speed figures. Rosia Bay wasn’t quite as effective at Belmont last time, but she seemed to lose focus when suddenly dropping back on the far turn. She did reengage in the stretch, and actually ran the fastest final eighth of anyone in that field before galloping out strongly. She now returns with blinkers added and still has some upside.

WIN: #2 Rosia Bay, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 7,8

RACE 5: ANISTON (#3)

Peace Cruiser (#8) is clearly the horse to beat in this one-mile maiden race for 2-year-old fillies. She took plenty of money on debut and delivered a professional performance, traveling strongly to the top of the stretch, only to get run down by a fellow first time starter in the final strides. Those two drew well clear of the rest of the field and she earned a solid speed figure for the level. While her pedigree isn’t the most convincing for stamina, she ran well over 7 furlongs and that foundation should give her a leg up on some of her foes here. Chad Brown will only run first time starter Tangential (#1A) after scratching the experienced half of his entry. She's been training decently for the debut, but I prefer another first time starters. Todd Pletcher has entered two debut runners in this field. While Irad Ortiz is named on his other entrant, I prefer the recent workouts of Aniston (#3). This $550k yearling purchase is by Curlin, who wins with 10% of his juvenile debut starters and is an excellent source of stamina. The dam was unraced, but has this gal’s full-sister Souper Sensation, a G3-winning dirt sprinter who is also proficient on turf and synthetic. Todd Pletcher does not have particularly strong statistics with these types, but I think this filly has ability. She wore blinkers in that fast Aug. 21 workout and was much the best in company, pulling some 15 lengths clear of her workmate. She has the action of a horse who would relish the distance and she may be a fair price with Jose Ortiz named to ride.

WIN: #3 Aniston, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 6: GOING IN STYLE (#6)

I’m not necessarily against likely favorite Forbidden Secret (#5), who will be tough for this auction maiden group to beat if he reproduces his last performance. Getting on a fast track for the first time, he showed significant improvement, dueling for the lead early before just getting run down by the more experienced winner. He obviously makes sense, but I do think he faces one intriguing rival in second time starter Going in Style (#6). This gelding debuted in a similar type of auction-restricted race at Monmouth, though that appeared to be a weaker spot than the one the favorite exits. Going in Style was off slowly and appeared to be going nowhere at the back of the pack before he finally seemed to find his best stride in the stretch. He was finishing with good interest late and proceeded to gallop out past the winner into the turn. He seems like one who should really benefit from that debut performance, and he could appreciate getting on a fast track this time. Jose Camejo has sent plenty of live runners to the NYRA circuit lately, and this one picks up Flavien Prat.

WIN: #6 Going in Style, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 8: GREAT WORKOUT (#7)

Dr. Blute (#4) will be tough for his rivals to beat in this N1X allowance if he runs back to his last effort. That was his first attempt at a mile, and his early speed seemed to play well going that distance, as he was able to outrun his rivals early. He just got a little leg weary in the last furlong, but I can’t really fault him for getting run down by the superior Best Idea, who was a heavy favorite that day. It just feels like this 4-year-old has improved for the Saffie Joseph barn, and he looks like a deserving favorite. However, I could see him getting a little more early pressure this time from Forty Two Ace (#6), who does tend to do best when he’s ridden aggressively. With Luis Saez aboard that foe, there’s a scenario where this pace heats up on the front end. For that reason, I think the favorite could be vulnerable to a horse like Great Workout (#7). He was beating a weaker field when he won that claiming event back in July, but he did show that he improved in the Linda Rice barn and I think he’s held that form pretty well in two subsequent starts. He just never appeared to be comfortable in the slop two back, conditions that he hasn’t ever handled well. Yet he put in a nice late run last time going 7 furlongs, which may just be too short for him. Stretching back out to a mile is more suitable, and I like the fact that he’s drawn outside under Prat.

WIN: #7 Great Workout, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 9: MAJESTIC GLORY (#1)

I liked Pebbles morning line favorite Gina Romantica (#12) last time when she won the Riskaverse at 14-1. She had trained deceptively well on turf prior to that race, and showed a real affinity for that surface, unleashing an impressive turn of foot to get the job done. However, she also got a great trip and ride from Flavien Prat, as the early pace was quick and she saved ground on both turns. Now she’s going to be a much shorter price despite getting mired outside in post 12. She can obviously win, but I have to look elsewhere this time. The only other horse that I would want from the Riskaverse is Faith in Humanity (#4), who arguably ran just as well as the winner considering the pace. She was sitting much closer to those early fractions and made the first move to take over in upper stretch before the closers came charging late. She had shown promise in her debut at Monmouth, and I was impressed with the way she handled the step up in class. She still has upside and is drawn well towards the inside. There are a couple of interesting new faces from Europe in this spot. Miss Carol Ann (#9) goes out for Graham Motion, who has excellent stats with his European imports. However, her overall form isn’t quite as strong as that of Majestic Glory (#1). This Todd Pletcher runner had shown some talent as a 2-year-old, winning the G3 Sweet Solera Stakes, displaying a nice turn of foot to finish ahead of Wild Beauty, who would go on to win the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine. While she hasn’t been successful since then, Majestic Glory was facing much tougher company in her final two starts as a juvenile. She got back into form off the layoff in April when finishing just behind Wild Beauty in another Group 3 event. She ran poorly at Epsom last time, but she just seemed to lack the stamina for that demanding uphill finish. She seems like one that should appreciate the one-mile distance in America, and she’s drawn perfectly on the rail in this large field.

WIN: #1 Majestic Glory, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 4,10,12