PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 3:   10 - 11 - 5 - 7
Race 4:   6 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   16 - 1 - 2 - 11
Race 6:   6 - 8 - 5 - 7
Race 7:   7 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   6 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 9:   11 - 14 - 12 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 6

Danseur d’Oro (#5) makes some sense as a class dropper in this $40k claimer. She might just not be a turf horse, and she probably didn’t really want to go route distances in her prior starts. I like her getting back to a dirt sprint, and she’s run well on off tracks before. I would just want a fair price on her. Willfull Desire (#7) has some speed figures that arguably make her the horse to beat, but it’s hard to know what to expect from her after she failed to show up at Timonium last time. Perhaps she’ll appreciate a little more time between starts. Dreamawayseven (#8) cuts back in distance after beating weaker at Finger Lakes last time. She had previously won an April 28 race here, making a wide run from far back to win going away. She did get a favorable setup that day, unable to keep up with a fast pace early before picking up the pieces. I thought the third-place finisher from that affair Perfect Senorita (#6) ran just as well in defeat. She was rank through the early stages and then stayed inside in a race that featured an outside flow. From a pace standpoint, her 87 TimeformUS Speed Figure was upgraded to be higher than that of the winner. I don’t care about the turf race last time, and now she’s returning fresh for low-profile connections. The price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#6 PERFECT SENORITA, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

El Grande O (#3) is obviously the horse to beat in this Bertram F. Bongard off his narrow defeat in the Funny Cide last time out. He put in a game effort that day, just getting nipped by favorite The Wine Steward at the wire after leading for most of the race. He was very interesting at this 10-1 odds that day off his deceptively strong performance in the off the turf Skidmore just one week prior. His TimeformUS Speed Figures of 105 and 97 for those performances make him a deserving favorite against today’s rivals. Yet now his form is fully exposed, and the value may lie elsewhere with those who possess more upside. Aggelos the Great (#2) ran an improved race to break his maiden just 10 days ago, but now his connections are wheeling him back on very short rest against a tougher field. He could attract some support for George Weaver, but I’m more interested in horses drawn to the outside. Skyler’s Starship (#4) put in an improved effort when switched to dirt in his second start, displaying improved early speed before gamely battling back inside of the reliable Mischief Joke. That runner-up does have some hang in him, but I still liked the way Skyler’s Starship finished going this 7-furlong distance. That edge in experience at the trip could give him an advantage here, and he earned a solid speed figure for that effort. My top pick is Detective Tom (#6). This colt debuted on turf at Saratoga and didn’t attract much support from the bettors, getting dismissed at nearly 8-1. Some of that may have been due to his lack of turf pedigree. The Factor is obviously a decent influence, but there isn’t much turf breeding on the dam’s side. The horse had actually worked quite well on the dirt leading up to that debut. His Aug. 16 gate workout was particularly impressive, as he easily drew clear of a workmate. I wonder if the connections entered him on grass thinking the race might come off the turf, especially given the weather situation at Saratoga. He showed good speed and gameness to dig in for the victory that day. Now they immediately switch him over to dirt for his second start, and I think we could see an improved performance on this surface.

Fair Value:
#6 DETECTIVE TOM, at 7-2 or greater