PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 9 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 5:   3 - 2 - 10 - 6
Race 6:   3 - 10 - 8 - 11
Race 7:   5 - 8 - 11 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 2 - 10 - 1
Race 9:   1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 10:   4 - 2 - 8 - 5

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: BLANCHIMENT (#4)

I primarily want to focus on the maiden special weight dropdowns in here, and the one that I find most appealing is second time starter Blanchiment (#4). She finished far back in her only start, but that was a very fast race won by subsequent stakes winner Maple Leaf Mel. She actually did some running on the backstretch to pass half the field after a slow start, and then flattened out. While she was passed by today’s rival Joey the Fish (#6) in deep stretch, I thought Blanchiment did more running than that foe overall. She’s now getting logical class relief and should strongly factor here with a clean break. Darknstormy (#2) exits a maiden special weight race late in the Saratoga meet. She had some traffic while lugging in though the stretch, so perhaps adding blinkers and drawing the rail will help. I preferred these with experience to a few of the first time starters, especially those that could take money like the half of the Repole entry.

WIN: #4 Blanchiment, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 3: MY LIPS ARE SEALED (#6)

Spungie (#2) feels like the horse to beat even though she failed to hit the board as the favorite last time. She was coming off a long layoff that day, and was also never inside during a period of time when the rail was a significant advantage on the inner turf course at Saratoga. She has superior prior form and will be tough if able to bounce back to one of her better efforts. However, I slightly prefer My Lips Are Sealed (#6) from that same race. Rob Atras trainees typically need a start coming off layoffs, but this mare ran quite well off the bench. She contested a fast pace while racing in the two-path, always off that advantageous rail. Now she cuts back a sixteenth of a mile, which figures to help her, and she looks like the main speed. I much prefer these two to Home for Christmas (#1), who could also take money exiting that Aug. 14 affair. She rode the rail for almost her entire trip. Some will focus on the fact that she briefly head to pause in mid-stretch, but she had a lot work in her favor prior to that. The one other horse who interest me a bit at a much bigger price is Masterof the Tunes (#9). She lands in a tough spot, as she’s racing above her eligible N1X condition. However, she ran better than it might appear last time after working out a wide trip and encountering traffic. She can pick up some pieces if any pace develops.

WIN: #6 My Lips Are Sealed, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 2,9

RACE 5: RIPE FOR MISCHIEF (#3)

If I’m going to take anyone from that Aug. 27 affair at Saratoga, I want it to be horses that were forwardly placed, as that race completely fell apart. Kreesa (#6) and Empire Sky (#5) both closed to get into the trifecta and are sure to take money off those performances. However, they each benefited from the hot early pace and I’m not sure how much running either one actually did. Kreesa is probably more appealing given his obvious upside as a second time starter, but he’s also going to be the shortest price. I prefer Ripe for Mischief (#3) from that race. He got a strange trip, as he was ridden hard to challenge the leader early before backing off on the turn. He then came again at the end and lost his path right at the wire, though that late trouble didn’t significantly alter the result. This horse interests me because he also ran better than it appears in his prior starts. Three back he set a very fast pace that fell apart and last time he got a wide trip chasing another quick pace. However, I do also want to look beyond those exiting that Travers day maiden event and consider a couple of new faces. My Slick Nick (#2) might be placed too ambitiously on the class rise, but I’ve been waiting for him to try the turf. His dam was strictly a turf horse and he looks like one that should move up on this surface. He also has the speed to be forwardly placed in a race that doesn’t feature that much pace. The other interesting runner is Racey Type (#10), who also tries turf for the first time while switching into the Asmussen barn. He’s by good turf influence Freud, and is a half to one decent turf horse.

WIN: #3 Ripe for Mischief, at 9-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #2 My Slick Nick, at 20-1 or greater

RACE 6: TRIPLE START (#3)

There is some guesswork to be done in this two-year-old maiden special weight event. Chad Brown entered a pair of first time starters, but will only go with Kaw Liga (#8) , who looked the weaker of his two runners based on their dirt workouts. He has the better pedigree for grass as a half-brother to turf stakes winner Cavalry Charge. This $600k purchase for Peter Brant does appear to be spotted appropriately. I’m more interested in those with experience. Coach Petro (#11) figures to take money now that he's drawn into the field from the AE list. However, I thought he got a great trip last time and probably should have won that race given his experience going in. Determinedly (#10) drops back into maiden company after trying a stakes last time. Yet I was expecting a better effort from him that day. It wasn’t the strongest race for the level and he just lacked late punch. He did have some trouble two back, but he also had the pace in his favor that day. I’m going in a different direction with first time turfer Triple Start (#3). This son of American Pharoah was meant for turf on debut, but stayed in once the race was rained onto the dirt. He put in a game effort to challenge the winner a couple of times before fading in the stretch. He strikes me as one that should improve on turf given his pedigree. Though he is a half-brother to Persistently, a Grade 1 winner on dirt, his second dam Heavenly Prize proved to be a strong turf influence as a broodmare. He’s also a half-brother to Double Jackpot, who has been a good turf producer as a broodmare. I liked the one grass workout that I saw up in Saratoga, and think he can step forward in his second start.

WIN: #3 Triple Start, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 8: THISMIGHTBETHEONE (#3)

Kelly Breen sends out a couple of fillies making their first starts off the claim, both exiting strong barns and coming off last-out victories. Train to Artemus (#8) exits the stronger performance, having run a field off its feet last time en route to a 3-length score. However, the margin would have been closer if the runner-up hadn’t blown the start that day.Crowding Out (#10) might be a little more reliable off her last performance, though she was facing a weak field that day and inexplicably failed to show up two back. I ultimately wanted to look for some alternatives. Abuse of Power (#2) makes sense as she takes her second crack at this condition. She ran fine first off the claim for Horacio De Paz last time when perhaps used a bit too much early in the race. She earned a strong speed figure for her victory two back and will be tough with a repeat of that performance. My top pick exits the same race, but finished farther back. Thismightbetheone (#3) looks a little light on the speed figure scale coming into this, but she’s in better form than it appears. She rode the rail in her May 14 performance at a time when you didn't really want to be inside on the inner turf course at Belmont. Then two back she clipped heels, losing all chance early in the race. And last time out she found herself so far back early due to a bad stumble at the start before making a decent late run. I think she’s dangerous if Prat can finally work out a trip for her.

WIN: #3 Thismightbetheone, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 10: ELLE EST FORTE (#4)

Likely favorites Transient (#2) and Blue Times (#8) finished second and third, respectively, in a similar race at this level on Sep. 2 at Saratoga. Both ran well off layoffs that day, and have a right to improve with races under their belts. I feel the distance is a more natural fit for Transient, but Blue Times does possess dangerous early speed in a race lacking pace. They’re the two horses to beat, though I could also use Lisheen (#5) from that same race. She was never on the rail and did run well going this distance when she broke her maiden last year. The horse who figures to take some money who I don’t want is Myriskyaffair (#6). She got a pretty good trip to be third last time in a race that was dominated towards the front end. However, I don’t think she’s run particularly well on turf despite earning competitive speed figures. I’m going in a different direction with Elle Est Forte (#4). I wouldn’t use this filly’s last race as evidence that she can’t handle added distance. She just seemed to get lost in mid-pack over that quirky Kentucky Downs course, and sustained some hard bumps in the lane before flattening out. Her prior form was solid and she gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz. She’s a grinding type who seems like one that could be suited by the added distance.

WIN: #4 Elle Est Forte, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 2,5,8