by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 5: 4 - 2/2B - 6 - 3
Race 6: 5 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 7 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 9: 7 - 8 - 10 - 1
RACE 4: MY GALINA (#3)
This is a confusing race because I’m not particularly fond of any of the competitors with prior turf form. The filly who appears to have the most upside of those with experience is second-time starter Bye Bye Nicky. She debuted for a $50,000 tag and was not facing the strongest field, but she ran very well. After getting outrun through the early stages, she made a prolonged rally from far behind to just miss in a race that did not set up well for closers. This is a step up in class, but she’s going out for a capable barn. I’m not enthusiastic about the other fillies coming up from races at Gulfstream. Stylishly and Her Latest Film have run well enough to break through at this level, but their form is not exactly inspiring. Therefore, I’m taking a shot with first-time starter My Galina. It’s somewhat curious to see this filly entered on turf given her pedigree. She’s by versatile sire Medaglia d’Oro, but her dam’s family is more dirt-oriented. Her dam was a dirt-sprint winner, and she is a half-sister to multiple dirt winner Regulus. That said, $275,000 is a fair amount of money for this pedigree, especially considering she sold as a weanling. I’m also a fan of this filly’s workouts. I loved her turf work on Feb. 24, when she was going very easily in company with an older stablemate, clearly displaying an affinity for turf. Watch the board with this one.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,7,8
RACE 5: TIERGAN (#4)
The Barry Schwartz-owned entry of Beachside and Just Right are likely to go favored in this spot despite the fact that both are exiting poor performances. Yet I don’t want to be too hard on either one given that they each reacted badly to turnbacks and are now stretching out to the more appropriate one-mile distance. Their running styles should complement each other since Just Right tends to show speed and Beachside closes from off the pace. I’m using this entry prominently, but this is a fairly competitive race, and they may be an underlay. Castle Casanova should attract some support, but I was not thrilled with this colt’s maiden victory last time. He never appeared to be traveling that well as the 4-5 favorite and only won because the runner-up could not get the distance. It’s possible that he reacted badly to a four-day turnaround and will do better here, but I’m skeptical. This horse has more of a turf pedigree, and I will wait for him to show up on that surface. I’m taking a shot against the favorites with Tiergan. I know that he looks a bit slower than the main contenders, but his last race is better than it seems. He was briefly on the rail early in the race, but he angled outside on the far turn and continued to close down the center of the track through the lane. That matters a great deal because the Feb. 7 card at Aqueduct featured a strong inside bias, which helped that race’s winner, Kosciuszko. We have seen both the winner and third-place finisher, Hushion, who was also against the bias, return to improve their TimeformUS Speed Figures in their subsequent starts. Tiergan’s last speed figure is the only one that makes him competitive with this field, but he had run deceptively well in some prior starts, especially two back, when he encountered traffic.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 2,6 with ALL
RACE 6: ARDARA BELLE (#5)
Trainer Dermot Magner has two of the main players in this allowance turf sprint. Jimi Bags may be the one who attracts more attention given her solid recent race at Gulfstream and the fact that Jose Lezcano is named to ride. She never threatened the top two finishers in that Feb. 21 race, but the speed figures were relatively fast. She’s clearly at her best over sprint distances on turf, and she figures to work out a good trip stalking the pace. She’s the horse to beat, but I respect the two experienced rivals drawn to her inside. One of those is her stablemate Helen’s Tiger. She displayed strong form in Southern California, but now she’s switching out of Doug O’Neill’s barn and has a low-percentage rider named aboard. Eloweasel may be more formidable as she returns for David Donk. She’s not the most reliable mare, but her best effort can easily put her in the winner’s circle. I’m using all of these in some capacity, but I’m most interested in the 3-year-old filly Ardara Belle. Her U.S. debut was a disaster, as she was placed in an ambitious spot and reacted badly to her trip. She clearly wanted to show speed coming out of the gate, but Luis Saez reined her in, forcing her to rate, and she fought him for a half-mile before quitting. This filly was most effective over six furlongs in France, so the turnback to a sprint makes sense. She actually got decent support in that Sweetest Chant and now has a live rider named as she steps down in class. At a much bigger price, the one other runner that I would throw into exotics is Forgotten Hero. She may have gone the wrong way since the layoff, but she has a ton of speed and has some hidden turf pedigree.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,7,10
RACE 9: PRINCESSOF PHILMAR (#7)
There is very little turf form on which to base opinions in this finale. I suppose My First Gal will be the favorite as she gets back on what appears to be her preferred surface. This 5-year-old mare has made three prior starts on turf, one per year between 2016 and 2018. The best of those was a third-place finish for the Jorge Abreu barn in 2017, and that effort might be good enough to beat this field. She has seemingly improved in her recent dirt starts so perhaps she’ll be capable of producing a faster effort this time. Yet I’m somewhat skeptical, especially given a short price. Kathy’s Cause should also appreciate getting back on grass after achieving mixed results racing on dirt this winter, and she has more upside as a 3-year-old. I’m using both of them in some capacity, but my top pick is first time turfer Princessof Philmar. This David Duggan trainee is bred to relish the switch to grass. She is a daughter of good turf influence Data Link and is out of a dam whose only other foal to win did so on turf. Furthermore, her second dam Baize was a 5-time turf winner, and she has produced a full-sibling to Princessof Philmar’s dam who was a turf Group 1 winner overseas. This filly has done a bit more running than it might appear in her two starts to date and she projects to take a big step forward in this spot.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,8,10