by David Aragona
 

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   1 - 2 - 4 - 8
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 8 - 7
Race 5:   5 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 6:   6 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 7:   5 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   9 - 10 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   9 - 1 - 8 - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: CONQUEST SO TRUE (#4)
Wildcat Belle will win this race if she repeats any of her recent efforts, but it is a little weird that they’re dropping her in for a $20,000 tag despite the fact that she has won in tougher spots recently. I think it’s probably a bad sign for a filly who has been campaigned aggressively. Furthermore, she’s supposed to receive some early pace pressure from Loose and Daring Prospect, so I don’t expect her to get a free ride up front. She may be the most likely winner, but I don’t want her at a short price. My top pick is Conquest So True, who should fall into the right trip from just off the pace. While she’s gone long in all of her recent starts, this mare actually was successful sprinting earlier in her career. I don’t mind the claim by David Jacobson, and he keeps her at a realistic class level. Furthermore, it’s worth noting that her last race is not quite as bad as it seems. She was buried inside for much of the running and seemed to get discouraged. I like the switch to Dylan Davis. She’s the one I want to bet, and I’ll primarily use her with the two favorites. I’ll also throw Da Wildcat Girl into my exacta since her last race is a throwout against tougher company.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5

 

RACE 4: BEYONDELLE (#4)
In a race lacking much turf form, Goodnight Moon appears to be one of the more reliable options. She attracts top rider Irad Ortiz Jr. for this return to her preferred surface, and the race she ran last September at Delaware would make her awfully tough to beat. The only other runner with competitive turf form is Goldmakesmesmile, but she’s run in some cheaper races and has had more chances. Also, she may be using this as a stepping-stone to a longer race. Among the first-time turfers, the options are fairly limited. Sugar Curl ran well on dirt in her debut before falling apart last time, but she does not have overwhelming turf pedigree. Kapalua Starlight is out of a dam who won on turf, but she is going to get bet off competitive dirt races. I want someone else, so I’m taking a shot with Beyondelle. You have to go back a few generations to find turf form in her female family, but her dam is by good turf influence Elusive Quality, and this filly’s sire is unheralded turf sire Biondetti. Despite being a son of Bernardini, Biondetti was a decent turf horse in Europe, and he has won with 14 percent of his turfsprint starters as a stallion. Furthermore, Beyondelle is one of the few fillies with speed in a mostly paceless race.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 6,7,8

 

RACE 5: BOLITA BOYZ (#5)
Hey Jabber Jaw has largely been a disappointment since getting claimed for the hefty sum of $100,000 last October. He appeared to wake up in the mud last time, finishing just four lengths behind the talented sprinter Skyler’s Scramjet, but I think the winner didn’t handle the track that day. They’re finally dropping Hey Jabber Jaw into a more realistic spot, and his early-speed figures make him very dangerous, as Rockford and Alright Alright don’t appear to be as fast in the early going. The class drop should help this favorite, but I don’t want to bet him at a short price. I much prefer Bolita Boyz, who has been a frustration for Rudy Rodriguez since he was claimed in November. He found himself in a particularly tough spot in his first start off the claim, and then he wanted no part of a mile or a muddy track in his subsequent race. He appeared to be well spotted last time, but he stumbled badly out of the gate and dropped Junior Alvarado. This horse has back races that would make him very competitive here, and it’s a good sign to see Rodriguez not completely giving up on him yet. I think he’s a likely winner of this race, and anything close to 2-1 is decent value.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3 with ALL

 

RACE 9: KARMA DELIGHT (#9)
This is one of the most competitive races on the card with no clear favorite, so you should be guaranteed a square price on whomever you like. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but I’m somewhat skeptical of how quickly they’ll be moving up front given that few if any of these horses are confirmed front-runners. The entry figures to attract some support since both have a chance to win. I actually prefer Donji, who has faced tougher company in his initial two starts in New York and should appreciate the drop in class. However, it’s hard to take him at a relatively short price. The two runners in the best form are Conquest Bigluck E and Karma Delight. The former is likely to be sent aggressively by Paco Lopez after running a very game race against a weaker field last time. However, he’s also gotten wet tracks in those races, and it seems likely he’ll have to reproduce that form over fast going this time. I’m a fan of Karma Delight. This horse won’t be much of a price, but he shouldn’t be. He ran very well in a tough starter-allowance stakes last time, pressing the pace before just getting nipped at the wire. It seems that David Jacobson has gotten him to maintain his form, and I think he’s running him back at a realistic level. Furthermore, this outside post position should give Dylan Davis options.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,6,8