PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 2:   1 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 3:   7 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   5 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 6 - 5
Race 6:   8 - 9 - 6 - 1
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 8:   4 - 9 - 8 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

Stamina is a major factor in this starter allowance, since none of the fillies or mares in this field have ever raced this far before. Desert Dalliance (#7) seems like the horse to beat despite drawing the outside post position. Her lone prior two-turn attempt didn’t go particularly well at Parx, but she seemed to handle the same one-mile distance last time, staying on well for second while earning a decent speed figure. She’s getting a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz, and she runs like a filly who shouldn’t have a problem with a little added distance. I prefer her to some others who could take money, including She Caught My Eye (#4). This filly is coming off a blowout victory in her last start, but she achieved that win against much cheaper company. She has a history of producing her best form when she’s facing the weakest competition, and I’m a little concerned that she won’t class up against this group. I want to go in a different direction with Wishing On a Star (#1). She’s another who has some things to prove with regard to stamina, having never raced around two turns on dirt. Yet she broke her maiden going a mile pretty easily two back, and was finishing nicely last time after getting a strange trip. She had decent position in the first furlong of that last race, but then got significantly shuffled back along the rail until she found herself last on the far turn. She was running on well late, but the awkward ride prior to that cost her a chance at a better placing. I like the rider change to Trevor McCarthy, and Horacio De Paz is 8 for 20 (40%, $3.44 ROI) second off the claim on dirt over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#1 WISHING ON A STAR, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

Potential favorite Citizen K (#5) primarily focused on shorter races early in his career, but he was able to effectively stretch out last summer at Saratoga. He ran better than the result might indicate on July 16 when chasing wide before fading, and he then improved upon that performance in September, just missing to a deep closer. His improved tactical speed has been an asset, and it should serve him well here. The layoff is a minor concern, but Horacio De Paz is 7 for 30 (23%, $2.43 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more on turf over the past 5 years. He’s the one to beat, but there are surely others to consider. There are a few 3-year-olds in the mix who might have more upside than the older counterparts. Some may expect better from Liar’s Poker (#2), but I thought he got great trips in both starts last year. I would rather take Noble Huntsman (#6) at a slightly better price, since he didn’t run much worse in the Central Park, and displayed some quality getting up for third in the Awad two back. He could certainly contend with routine improvement. Starquist (#7) is more of a wild card as he makes his turf debut, but he’s also shown some talent in stakes company. He looked so full of promise when he started his career on dirt, but his recent performances have been trending in the wrong direction. Nyquist is a solid 13% turf sire. Though it’s generally more of a dirt pedigree on the dam’s side, his second dam Unbridled Star did win on turf and was stakes-placed on that surface. He moves like one that could take to grass, and John Kimmel had worked him over the Oklahoma turf three times last summer, indicating they have long considered this option. My top pick at what should be an even bigger price is Open Til Midnight (#1). His current connections lost him for $25k when he finished second in January, but subsequently claimed him back for $40k last month, so there’s some attachment to this horse. He may look inferior on speed figures, but there are a couple of reasons to expect improvement. Dirt is not his preferred surface, yet he ran one of the best races of his career over it on Jan. 8. His two most recent turf efforts are sprints, but he’s clearly better going longer. He handled this course and distance when he broke his maiden as a 2-year-old, and had gotten a poor trip in his lone turf route attempt prior to that. It feels like there’s some intention going back to this surface and he drew a great post position.

Fair Value:
#1 OPEN TIL MIDNIGHT, at 8-1 or greater
#7 STARQUIST, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 6

Chad Brown will only run one of the two horses he entered after first time starter Sacred Rhyme was a vet scratch. Equal Protection (#1) faced a solid field in his turf debut, but never really picked up the pace through the lane and will have to do better. He certainly has a right to get a piece of this with a similar performance, but I thought there were other more appealing price optinos. Among those with turf experience, I’m most interested in Won an Award (#9). This colt didn’t take much money on debut last year considering his appealing pedigree, out of a dam who won 3 times on grass who has produced Grade 2 winner Venetian Harbor. He put in a nice late run that day, but looked like a horse that wasn’t totally fit. He now returns for Jorge Duarte, who has decent numbers off layoffs. He also seems like a candidate to improve with added ground. My top pick at a bigger price is Fast Boat to Skye (#8). This gelding has shown some hints of ability in his four prior starts on dirt. He finished a decent second in the slop last December, which is sometimes indicative of turf inclination. He was also against a rail bias two back, so he’s had some excuses. I’m intrigued by him getting on turf. Cairo Prince is a 14% turf route sire, and while the dam never won on turf, one full-sibling to try it did seem to prefer grass. I expect him to get an aggressive ride in a race that features a murky pace scenario, and he stretches out and he strikes me as one that can move up on this surface.

Fair Value:
#8 FAST BOAT TO SKYE, at 6-1 or greater