by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 5: 3 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 6: 9 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 8: 3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 9: 11 - 1 - 6 - 7
RACE 3: BOOTLEGGER (#6)
County Court may go off as the slight favorite in this conditioned claiming race as he drops in class for Shug McGaughey. This gelding ran well to win the last time he raced for a tag last fall at Belmont, but he benefited from favorable circumstances that day. County Court has always been best over turf courses with some give to them, and he has needed at least nine furlongs to put forth a top effort. I’m somewhat skeptical that he can repeat that effort going this distance, especially in a race that does not feature an abundance of early speed. His main rival may be Herecomesyourman, who returns on relatively short rest after winning an N2L race just 13 days ago. This horse has always had some ability but always had trouble finding the winner’s circle. If he’s gotten over that issue, he’s a serious threat to win right back, but the lack of pace could hinder him as well. Rudy Rodriguez entered a pair of runners for turf. Where’s Rudy is a bit of an enigma as he tries this surface for the first time. While he is a son of Gio Ponti, his dam’s family is really more dirt-oriented. I strongly prefer Rudy’s other horse, Bootlegger. This ridgling performed admirably over the winter even though dirt probably isn’t his preferred surface. I think he’s going to appreciate getting back on grass for this race, and I love the rider switch to Irad Ortiz. This horse’s prior turf starts for Rudy are not nearly as bad as they seem. He was facing a strong field for this level back on Oct. 26, and then he ran off on the lead on Dec. 1. He is fast enough to make the front here, and I’m confident that Ortiz will be able to ration out his speed this time. In his current form, I believe he is the horse to beat.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4 with 1,2,3,4
RACE 6: WICKED GRIN (#9)
I suppose Scotty Brown will attraction some attention as he returns to turf following a layoff. He ran some of the best speed figures in this field on turf last season, but all of those races came at route distances. He doesn’t strike me as a horse who will be better off sprinting, so this placement going 6 furlongs upon return feels like a prep for a stretch-out. I want to look elsewhere if he is a short price. I’m most interested in the horses that sprinted on turf as 2-year-olds last season, and the one who performed best in those races is Wicked Grin. I thought this gelding’s Saratoga debut was very encouraging, as he chased the pace throughout and almost won despite going 2- to 3-wide over a course that was favoring rail runners. He was not quite as effective in his second start, but he had a somewhat uncomfortable trip and didn’t seem to appreciate yielding going. Two subsequent dirt experiments and failed. Now he returns in the correct spot as a 3-year-old while making his first start on Lasix. Over the past 5 years, Christophe Clement is 18 for 72 (25 percent, $2.35 ROI) with maidens on turf racing with Lasix for the first time. I’ll primarily use him with Qian B C, who exits the same pair of turf races from last summer, as well as first time turfer Moo Lah, who is bred to handle this surface.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 4,5,6,10
RACE 7: BON RAISON (#4)
Reed Kan is a deserving favorite as he steps back up to this optional claiming level. He lost in similar conditions two back, but he was facing a slightly tougher group and he may have disliked the slop that day. Reed Kan will obviously be difficult to reel in if he reproduces his most recent start, in which he dominated a starter allowance field in fast time. However, now he will have to two top efforts back-to-back, something he has struggled to do in the past, and he will have to negotiate an extra half-furlong. I believe he’s faster than Seethisquick to his inside, but there are some formidable late runners to deal with this time. One of those is Long Haul Bay, but I don’t trust this alternative. He’s had many stops and starts in his career and he was incapable of reproducing his best efforts the last time we saw him. Runaway Lute is just as untrustworthy, but he is coming into this race off a series of eye-catching workouts. I’ll use both of them defensively, but my top pick is Bon Raison. He defeated a much softer field when he won the Peeping Tom last month, but he did so by finishing powerfully going this distance while earning a respectable speed figure. All of this colt’s efforts since being transferred into Carlos Martin’s barn have been solid, and he had excuses in his two losses against tougher company. He figures to work out a great trip stalking the speed and I believe he’ll be sitting in the perfect spot if Reed Kan tires in the last sixteenth.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,6
RACE 8: ROSEBORO (#3)
There are two debut winners making their second career starts in this race. The slight favorite might be Holey Matrimony. This Union Rags colt ran very fast in his debut at 5 1/2 furlongs, which should come as no surprise given that he is a half-brother to the accomplished sprinter Marriedtothemusic. He also gets a huge rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz for this second start. My only reservation is that we saw the second- and third-place finishers out of that March 24 race return here last weekend, and both seemed to regress, so perhaps Holey Matrimony’s first start is not quite as strong as it seems. I prefer the other recent debut winner, Roseboro. This 4-year-old colt didn’t get away from the gate cleanly, as he was shuffled back soon after the start. However, once Manny Franco steered him into the clear on the backstretch, he quickly started to run by the entire field. He sustained that prolonged rally into the stretch, finishing up with plenty of energy as he ran by the leaders in the final eighth of a mile. While the speed figure came back slower than Holey Matrimony’s, Roseboro gave the impression that he’s capable of running faster in subsequent starts. I’m keying on him, but I would also use Elios Milos, who returns from a layoff for Jorge Abreu. He was visually impressive in his debut last summer but has been off since July.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 3 with 2,6 with 1,2,4,6,7
RACE 9: BIG PADDY BROWN (#11)
Tizgame figures to attract the most support in this finale as he transitions to turf for Linda Rice. He made his first couple of starts on dirt in March, but this is the surface he should relish. Tiznow is a decent turf influence, and his dam has produced a pair of capable turf winners, First Charmer and Southern Gal. This expensive colt has a right to improve significantly with this surface switch, and if he does, he is unlikely to lose this race. However, he also figures to be a short price, and it is rarely wise to accept prohibitive favorites trying something for the first time. His main rivals appear to be Bobby Man and True Blue Giant, but neither one really excites me. The former ran fine in his debut on turf last fall, but that race was falling apart in the late stages over yielding ground. True Blue Giant has been well supported in his first three starts but does not have significant turf pedigree. I’m instead taking a shot with Big Paddy Brown, who is finally getting a chance to race on grass. This colt was entered for turf in his Oct. 20 debut before that race was washed onto the dirt. He didn’t run well, but he subsequently improved while racing over the main track this winter. Despite those competitive dirt efforts, I still believe turf is his true calling. He’s by the decent turf influence Big Brown, and his dam’s only win came sprinting on grass. I won’t be surprised if he shows more speed as the blinkers go on for this race. The only other horse I would throw in is Noble Cause. He worked very well over the synthetic track at OBS as a 2-year-old and he has enough pedigree to handle the turf.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,6,7,10