by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1/1A - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 5 - 8 - 6
Race 5: 4 - 9 - 7 - 10
Race 6: 6 - 9 - 7 - 10
Race 7: 6 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 8: 2 - 3 - 8 - 6
Race 9: 3 - 4 - 6 - 2
RACE 2: HEYITSNRICOPALAZO (#1)
Regalian is running back on short rest following a runner-up finish at the starter-allowance level just six days ago. If he can repeat that effort, he has a good chance to win this race. However, his connections are dropping him in for a tag for the first time since claiming him, and his prior races don’t make him particularly tough. Looking at Regalian’s March 11 race, Heyitsnricopalazo actually ran better than him despite finishing just a nose behind that rival. The early pace was honest, and I thought Heyitsnricopalazo battled back gamely inside of the eventual winner before fading at the very end. This horse improved significantly on his debut and now figures to play out as the main speed from the rail under Paco Lopez. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and this colt looks faster than Blinded Vision in the early going.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 3,6
RACE 4: CONQUEST SO TRUE (#2)
The horse to beat is clearly Jcs American Dream, who has spent the majority of her career facing much tougher competition. However, it’s not a great sign that Linda Rice is dropping her in for the $10,000 tag after running her just once in the past eight months. She can certainly win this race but is impossible to trust at a short price. Nevertheless, I like her more than Doinwhatshelikes, who beat an awful field at this level last time and might need to improve to win again. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking Conquest So True. David Jacobson has great numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 8 for 17 (47 percent, $3.20 ROI) second off the claim with horses going from sprints to routes on dirt and running back on short rest of 14 days or fewer. Conquest So True’s last race is not nearly as bad as it seems given that there was no pace for her to close into. She’s run well enough going longer in the past, and she’s placed at a realistic class level.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6,7,8
RACE 5: MISS SIZZLE (#4)
It’s hard to find the horse to beat in this wide-open field. The horse that's run the best turf races is perhaps Hollywood Cat, who is coming back off a layoff. This filly improved last summer and encountered trouble in her final two starts of 2017. That was especially true on Oct. 15, when she was in a bad spot throughout and had to steady out of position in the lane. She was a vet scratch twice after that and now returns as a fresh filly. I’ll use her, but I prefer two fillies switching to turf. Passporttovictory has already handled grass for her prior connections but hasn’t made a start over it since last November. Her turf efforts make her competitive, and she possesses decent tactical speed in a field that lacks much pace. Perhaps most importantly, she’s making her first start off the claim for Jeremiah Englehart and Jimmy Riccio. I’m using her prominently, but the filly I picked on top is Miss Sizzle. She’s making her turf debut, and she’s certainly bred to handle the grass. Her sire, First Defence, wins with 15 percent of his turf starters, and this filly is a half-sister to multiple turf-sprint winner Whiskey Seven. I think it’s telling that her best dirt race came over a sloppy, sealed track. Angel Arroyo figures to send her from the outset in hopes of wiring the field.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 7,9,10
Trifecta: 4,9 with 4,9 with 1,3,7,10
RACE 8: DR. SHANE (#2)
Many horses can win this competitive turf sprint. Sword Fighter appears to be the one to beat as he makes his first start for Rudy Rodriguez while still owned by prior trainer Peter Miller. He ran very well in his turf debut as a 2-year-old, finishing a fast-closing fourth in the Juvenile Turf Sprint behind talented runners Kitten’s Cat and Con Te Partiro. His only other turf start did not go as planned, but he had a rough trip. He’s since run well on wet dirt tracks, and I think he must be respected. Linda Rice has a pair, but both may be compromised by a lack of pace in this race. Psychic Energy got a great setup when closing to be third over this course last December. He makes his first start in about five months, as does her other horse, With Exultation. The latter was going longer distances last year but did run very well in his only two sprint tries. They’re going to need some racing luck to get up for the victory, and I’d rather take a runner with more tactical speed. Therefore, I’ve landed on Dr. Shane. While he didn’t win any of his turf starts last year, he ran very well on a number of occasions against similar competition. Now, he’s returning from a layoff for new trainer Danny Gargan and has drawn an advantageous inside post. Kendrick Carmouche figures to take advantage of this runner’s early speed.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6,7,8
RACE 9: TEQUILA SUNDAY (#3)
Big Expense is the horse to beat based on her last two efforts, but her margin for error is fairly slim. I Like Your Style showed speed last time, but did so against a bad bunch, and the first time starters don’t exactly thrill me. I want to take a small shot against the favorite with Tequila Sunday. She is probably facing the softest field of her career as she returns from a brief freshening. She faced slightly tougher company in her two starts since returning from the long layoff and I like the rider switch to Eric Cancel. Furthermore, if the rain holds off, she would appreciate returning to a fast track, since her best career speed figures came over fast surfaces last year.
Win/Place: 3