PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 6 - 7 - 9
Race 2:   6 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   2 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 5:   7 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 6:   9 - 4 - 10 - 3
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 4 - 2

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 5

I doubt he goes favored in this spot, but I do view Mandatory (#5) as the horse with the best form coming into this race. He was arguably best when he was second to Colloquy two back after setting a fast pace. Then last time he stepped up to this level and again finished a strong second in a race that came up pretty fast. That 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him the fastest runner in this field, but he will have to deal with some other speed if he’s to win here. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and he figures to get some early pressure from horses like Norgay and Charlie Five O. I do prefer him to other who could take money, like Salto de Tigre (#2) and Long Term (#9). The former should appreciate the slight turnback to a mile after finding 9 furlongs just a bit too far last time. Yet David Jacobson hasn’t had much recent success in New York and I think this horse would have to improve on his best form to win here. Long Term is still with the Pletcher barn after going unclaimed when breaking his maiden last time. I didn’t love the field he beat and though he won due to getting a better trip than the runner-up. This is a much tougher spot. My top pick is Breadman (#7). He’s getting a real class test after just beating a field of $14k conditioned claimers last time. However, he ran a solid 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure, confirmed the similar number that he earned when winning here in December. I like the Rob Falcone is showing some confidence to bump him up in class, and he has great stats with class hikes in Formulator. He figures to sit the right trip from just off the pace, and I think Maddy Olver could be a good fit for him based on the way he traveled last time.

Fair Value:
#7 BREADMAN, at 9-2 or greater
#5 MANDATORY, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 6

Two of the logical players in this $25k claimer faced off in a starter allowance race in March. O’Trouble (#3) finished second that day, four lengths ahead of today’s rival Ragtime Blues (#10). O’Trouble has raced since then, closing for third in an optional claimer at Laurel. He’s generally been in strong form since the claim by David Jacobson, so this drop in for a $25k tag seems like a minor negative. Ragtime Blues did have an excuse for that Mar. 25 result, since he has never run particularly well over a wet, sealed track. He figures to get his preferred fast going this time, and perhaps that will be enough to get him to rebound. He was claimed for $25k two back, so he’s placed appropriately, and his best efforts can beat this field. I’m just somewhat concerned about a potential fast pace with other speed signed on. Victorious Wave (#4) looks a little more versatile, since he can be effective from a stalking position. He has taken a step forward since switching to dirt this winter, and last time ran the best race of his career for Rob Atras. He chased a fast pace and did well to put away some solid rivals to win that starter allowance. His 111 TimeformUS Speed Figures is one of the highest numbers in this field. Some may be deterred by the drop in for $25k, but these connections tend to place horses aggressively. My top pick is Digital Future (#9). This gelding could get somewhat ignored following a pair of disappointing results over the winter. Yet I thought he had excuses both times. He was racing over a muddy track that he just doesn’t care for two back, and last time he was always out of position in a race dominated on the front end. He’s getting realistic class relief as he returns from a brief layoff. He ran well over this track in November and should sit a good trip from just off the pace.

Fair Value:
#9 DIGITAL FUTURE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

This turf allowance presents a conundrum for bettors, since both horses who figures to vie for favoritism have significant flaws. John Terranova sends out the entry of Kawhi Me a River (#1) and Flash Kiss (#1A), from which the former is undoubtedly the stronger half of the pair. Yet that in an of itself is an issue for those interested in betting on Kawhi Me a River, who is more likely to be an underlay as part of a coupled entry than if he were a separate betting interest. This horse has run some nice races on turf, but it’s a concern that his 2022 campaign was cut show after just two appearances. He has plenty of natural ability, but he can be difficult to ride and has encountered trouble on a few occasions. The good news is that John Terranova is a strong 13 for 46 (28%, $2.84 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more during the past 5 years, but most of that success has come on dirt. Sosua Summer (#3) looks like his main rival, and his best turf speed figures certainly make him a win candidate. However, it took him a long time to break his maiden, and he’s been somewhat of a disappointment ever since achieving that lone victory last summer at Saratoga. He’s been sent off at short prices in a few recent allowance races and usually underperforms. That was especially true of his two prior attempts over this distance at Aqueduct last year. Given the potential for negative value on these two obvious contenders, I want to look elsewhere. Some may consider Ikigai (#5), who switches back to grass after earning some nice speed figures on dirt this winter. It does appear that he’s improved for the Michelle Giangiulio barn, but I’m still not convinced that turf is his preferred surface. That said, his presence could affect the chances of some other speeds in the race, and potentially bring closers into the mix. I’m hoping that’s the case, because I think Battuta d’Oro (#4) is an interesting option at a price. He will be making his turf debut here, but he has plenty of pedigree to handle it. Practical Joke is a decent 12% turf sprint sire, but the dam’s side pedigree is all grass. His dam earned her only victory on turf and showed much more affinity for that surface than dirt. His second dam was also a nice turf runner, earning a 94 Beyer on that surface, and his dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter Gaff. These connections can send out live runners at prices, and the horse did seem to improve in his two recent starts at Aqueduct.

Fair Value:
#4 BATTUTA D'ORO, at 8-1 or greater