PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 3:   3 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 7 - 9 - 3
Race 5:   3 - 2 - 12 - 9
Race 6:   7 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 7:   1 - 8 - 2 - 4
Race 8:   12 - 5 - 9 - 11

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 4

It’s pretty obvious that Be Up (#9) is the horse to beat in this $25k claimer. It’s hard to assess her current form given her recent campaign over the synthetic track at Turfway. She handled it fine when she won a claiming race in mid-March, but then regressed sharply two weeks later at a higher level. She may simply be better on turf, since she finished a good second over this course last October. My reservations with her are that she’s a bit one-paced and could find herself working out a chasing trip from this outside draw. I’m interested in a couple of other runners who could be forwardly placed. Forty Smooth (#7) offers some appeal as she switches back to turf. She faced a better field in her only grass start of 2022, setting the pace here last October before fading. Her last race sprinting on dirt seems like a prep, so I expect better second of the layoff. I just wonder if she’s a little cheap for this level, but the price does figure to be fair. My top pick is Mariah’s Fortune (#2). This filly is trying the surface for the first time, and I suspect she’ll handle it. The dam’s side pedigree is limited, but she is out of a Giant’s Causeway dam, and sire Classic Empire has been winning with a decent 10% of his turf starters. She’s run some of her best races over sealed tracks, and she moves like a horse who should transfer to turf. It feels like there’s some intention trying this surface second off the claim for Peter Walder, and she drew well towards the inside.

Fair Value:
#2 MARIAH'S FORTUNE, at 6-1 or greater
#7 FORTY SMOOTH, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 6

With two coupled entries in this race, it’s hard to know who will actually run. Only one half of the Rob Atras entry can participate with Kendrick Carmouche named on both. Jake Rocks (#1) is clearly the stronger half and would be the horse to beat if he participates here. At first glance this $40k claimer might seem like an odd spot for a horse who just won his N1X allowance condition. Yet he would probably be overmatched at the much tougher N2X level, and Atras tends to place his horses where they can win. He makes plenty of sense, but won’t be much of a price. Both runners for Linda Rice make sense, but Glory Road (#2) and Lastchanceatglory (#2B) are the worst kind of coupled entry, where both will pull in support, driving down the price. I’m interested in some others. Thinkaboutit (#6) is an interesting claim back by Ray Handal, who is in the midst of another fantastic meet. He was a bit of a disappointment for this barn earlier in the year, but I also thought he got too passive a ride last time going a bit shorter. He’s capable with his best effort. My top pick is Nuclear Option (#7). This horse is another claim back, reunited with Jamie Ness after being claimed back for $32k. His last start for the Ness barn resulted in an 8-length victory at Parx, and a repeat of that performance would make him tough here. His recent form leaves something to be desired, but he was overmatched in a few of those spots. This time he appears to be the quickest of them all early and should try to wire this field. Furthermore, Ness is on quite a roll with his claims, going 14 for 30 (47%, $2.75 ROI) first off the claim over the past 3 months.

Fair Value:
#7 NUCLEAR OPTION, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

This New York-bred allowance affair appears to go through the 3-year-old Vacation Dance (#8). This colt showed real ability as a juvenile. He was game to win his debut at Saratoga, and subsequently improved in two turf starts at Aqueduct in the fall. He just missed after cutting out the fractions in the G3 Futurity, and then won the Altantic Beach over a good field. He’s already run some of the best speed figures in this field, and he still has upside as he returns for his 3-year-old season. While he seemed to train well in Florida over the winter, John Kimmel is just 3 for 42 (7%, $1.33 ROI) off 90 to 180 day layoffs over the past 5 years. I respect him in this spot, especially given his early speed in a race that lacks another obvious frontrunner. I’m somewhat against the Christophe Clement pair, both of whom appear to be pace compromised. Frank’s Art (#6) in particularly could pull some support and I think he’s a bad bet in this spot. I’m more interested in horses drawn towards the inside. Ghost Giant (#2) might be capable of better as he turns back in distance and switches into the David Donk barn. He was in solid form last year and has run well over this course before. My top pick is Runningwscissors (#1). The 7-year-old has struggled with consistency in recent seasons, but his turf races during that time have generally been good. He put in a huge effort, albeit with a perfect trip, to win at this level last June. He was then overmatched in some tougher spots over the summer. He finally dropped back in against NY-breds in his 2022 finale and did well to get up for fourth after a wide trip from the 11-hole. He hasn’t run as well in two dirt starts this year, but he did show some improved speed last time and may be set for better with this return to turf.

Fair Value:
#1 RUNNINGWSCISSORS, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8

This starter allowance finale is one of the most interesting races on the Aqueduct Thursday card, as contention runs deep in this 12-horse field. Paros (#11) could go favored for Linda Rice as he attempts to improve on a couple of recent third-place finishes at this level in March. He ran well on Mar. 5, making an outside move into contention before flattening out. Yet I was somewhat disappointed with his last effort, in which he made the lead with a furlong to go and just threw in the towel late. I have some reservations about him stretching out to 7 furlongs and just don’t see the value here. I’m also against Mama’s Gold (#8), who just hasn’t looked like the same horse since getting claimed away from Mike Maker. This horse ran a speed figure that suggested he might have been ready for stakes company in January, but he’s been unable to reproduce that form for Chad Summers. Rol Again Dancer (#9) seems like a possible alternative. Unlike many others in this field, he’s actually moving up in class. Yet he ran a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure last time, which stacks up favorably against this field. He battled gamely to the wire that day, but is another who may be pushed to his limit at 7 furlongs. Linda Rice’s other runner Bobby the Tank (#5) intrigues me more if the price is generous. He ran a competitive speed figure last December behind Valenzan Day before cutting back to 6 furlongs in his two most recent starts. I didn’t love the ride he got last time, allowed to lag too far behind early. Yet he was running on at the end, and he strikes me as one that won’t mind a little added distance. This also seems like a weaker spot than the allowance race he contested last time. My top pick is Playingwithmatches (#12), who figures to be the best price of those who I view as contenders. He showed grit to break his maiden on second asking last November, and then more than held his own against a solid field in that stallion series stakes going this distance. He ran poorly going a mile in January, but something may have gone awry that day, as he missed some time thereafter. He returned last month with an effort that’s better than the result indicates. He got shuffled back early chasing from the inside but was finishing best of all across the wire, suggesting that he’s equipped to get this 7-furlong trip. Furthermore, Mark Hennig is 9 for 42 (21%, $2.23 ROI) second off a layoff of 50 to 100 days in dirt sprints over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#12 PLAYINGWITHMATCHES, at 6-1 or greater