PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   4 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   3 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 6:   7 - 1A - 6
Race 7:   6 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 8:   7 - 8 - 5 - 6

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 3

I’m taking a stand against likely favorite Melting Snow (#2) in this $40k claimer. She’s going to take a lot of money as she seeks her fifth victory in a row, but this is the toughest assignment that she’s faced during that winning streak. I will give her credit for finishing well after getting an engaged in an early duel through fast fractions last time, and her 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure reflects a substantial pace upgrade. Yet she once again lands in a spot that features other speed types, including front-runners Alpine Queen (#4) and Baba (#5), so I’m skeptical about her trip. My top pick is Customerexperience (#3). I just think this mare makes plenty of sense as she drops back down in class for Linda Rice. She was in over her head last time at the optional claiming level, and also found herself in a race that didn’t feature much pace at all. She never had a chance to close that day, and should benefit from the stretch-out to 7 furlongs in a race that features more early speed. The other runner that I would want to use Mon Petit Chou (#1). She was no match for Melting Snow two back, but she subsequently met a tougher field last time, and is another that would benefit from some pace on the front end. I’m not convinced that she’s quite as good as Customerexperience, but she should be a generous price in a race where the favorite figures to be overbet.

Fair Value:
#3 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 5

The $300k auction purchase Spirit of St Louis (#6), a half-brother to Breeders’ Cup winner Bar of Gold, won his debut pretty impressively in February. Like his accomplished sister, he showed a real affinity for a sloppy track that day, sailing clear of a decent field to win by over 8 lengths. The 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure certainly makes him a contender here, but he’s not some standout based on that number as he steps up against a couple of rivals with ability. Chad Brown is 9 for 31 (29%, $1.35 ROI) with last-out debut winners in dirt routes over 5 years, indicating that these runners do win but tend to get overbet. His two main rival exit the same Mar. 10 race at this level. Many will prefer Golden Code (#5) from that event, since he was contesting an honest pace that came apart, and held on reasonably well for third. It was an improvement upon his sprint return, so he has a right to take another step forward third off the layoff. Yet I’m not totally convinced about him improving at 9 furlongs. I don’t see the distance as a major obstacle for Mason Mania (#7). This gelding sat a good trip last time, watching the leaders duel while saving ground before launching a bid at the quarter pole. He couldn’t withstand the stretch challenge of winner Simply, but I thought he battled on gamely to the wire to just miss in a head bob. I thought he ran one of his best races going this distance three back when finishing strongly behind the talented Ouster. He’s in great form right now, and tends to not get the wagering respect that he deserves. I also think Olympic Dreams (#4) could outrun his odds again after progressing to win his maiden two weeks ago. I believe he'll appreciate the added ground, but prefer him underneath this time.

Fair Value:
#7 MASON MANIA, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 7

This 9-furlong optional claimer may have only attracted 6 runners, but it’s one of the most intriguing races of the day. Todd Pletcher has entered a pair of colts coming off lengthy layoffs. Commandperformnance (#2) was one of the top 2-year-olds of 2021, finishing second in the Grade 1 Champagne. Yet he just never panned out as an holder horse, and needs to improve significantly in this comeback performance. Kuchar (#5) is a little more appealing as he returns from a similar layoff. He was heading in the right direction for Rodolphe Brisset last year prior to being purchase by his current connections for $500k last July. Yet it’s a little strange that he was given a layoff following that purchase. Furthermore, for all of Todd Pletcher’s success off layoffs, he is just 1 for 8 ($0.45 ROI) off layoffs of at least 180 days in dirt races at 9 furlongs or farther over 5 years. The other horses who could take money are Tonal Impact (#1) and Celestial Moon (#4). The former is proven at this distance and just seems fairly logical. However, I didn’t think he had major excuses to lose either of his last two starts, hanging in the late stages on both occasions. I wonder if he’s just hit a plateau. Celestial Moon may have more upside after just beating a strong field at the N1X allowance level. He has some things to prove stretching out around two turns on dirt, but I like the way he’s progressing. My top pick is Treasure Trove (#6). By far the most experienced member of this field, and the only one offered for the $62,500 tag, he doesn’t possess the upside of his rivals. Yet he ran a race that would make him awfully tough for this field to beat when he was last seen at Aqueduct in February, rallying to victory going this distance, earning a career-best 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He’s failed to hit the board in three starts since then, but he’s been compromised by some slow paces in those subsequent starts. That was particularly true last time at Laurel when he was ridden too conservatively. Trainer Lynn Cash tends to get the best out of his horses when they come to the NYRA circuit and I like the rider switch to Trevor McCarthy.

Fair Value:
#6 TREASURE TROVE, at 9-2 or greater