PICKS

Race 1:   10 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 2:   5 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   5 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 4:   8 - 2 - 12 - 9
Race 5:   6 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 6:   2 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 7:   3 - 9 - 5 - 6
Race 8:   6 - 2 - 8 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: UNCLE WATER FLOW (#10)

This is still a pretty interesting affair even getting rained off the turf. #5 Curlin’s Wisdom may now go favored, but I don’t totally trust this colt as he stretches back out in distance. He never really stepped forward out of his dirt debut, disappointing as the even-money favored when he last tried a mile in December before fading badly last time. He’s probably faced slightly tougher fields than this, but he doesn’t own much of a speed figure advantage. #3 Sensibleconclusion is a bit of an enigma off his last effort. He just never looked like himself in that one-mile event, backing up before the field reached the quarter pole. The blinkers now come off, and he ran pretty well in his two prior starts for Ed Barker. I’m skeptical that #7 Salute to America really wants to go a mile, though I suppose he’s not impossible. And #1 Excursionniste is running out of chances for me, on both dirt and turf. Therefore, I want to get a little more creative with a longshot. #10 Uncle Water Flow interested me last time against a weaker field because he had run deceptively well at this level on Dec. 31. Dismissed at over 60-1 that day, he finished nearly 10 lengths behind Curlin’s Wisdom, but got a crazy trip, getting away very awkwardly before altering course multiple times during an eventful journey. I think he showed that he has a lot more to offer last time as he stayed on gamely to secure second. He earned a competitive speed figure that day, which makes him competitive as he moves up in class. I don’t think this horse is going to get the respect he deserves, and I like the addition of blinkers given his prior greenness issues.

WIN: #10 Uncle Water Flow, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 5: ROCK SUGAR (#6)

#2 Cousteau has gone favored in each of his 7 starts, yet he owns just a single victory to date. The horse has some talent, but he’s been an underachiever throughout his career. That trait was on display last time when he was unable to capitalize on a perfect setup, setting a slow pace before getting run down in the stretch. It’s not clear that he really wants to go a mile, so I’m reluctant to take a short price on him even as he drops in class second off the claim for Linda Rice. Some may look to #1 Emperor’s Cause as an alternative, but I’m a little skeptical. While he’s making his first start off the claim for the dangerous Rob Atras barn, his form prior to dropping in for the tag was pretty spotty. He ran reasonably well last time but did so against a weaker field than this, and now he’s catching some legitimate rivals who are dropping out of tougher spots. I’d be more interested in the others exiting starter allowance events. Blu Grotto and Rock Sugar return out of the same Feb. 26 race, in which both were soundly defeated. I find it more difficult to trust #5 Blu Grotto, who lacks early speed and has been totally unreliable as of late. His best effort is surely good enough to win here, but he has completely failed to show up in two of his last three starts. I’m more intrigued by #6 Rock Sugar. He did have things working in his favor when he broke his maiden two back, as he may have been on the best part of the track. His first start off the claim for William Morey was undoubtedly a disappointment, but he appeared to get discouraged right from the start when racing out of position. He got shuffled all the way back to last at the quarter pole before staying on mildly. I think he’s better than that, and he projects to be in a more favorable position stalking a moderate pace this time.

WIN: #6 Rock Sugar, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 6: BIG AL’S GAL (#2)

I’ll be interested to see how the public approaches this wide open $12,500 claiming affair. #3 Magnetique could vie for favoritism despite coming off a couple of poor efforts. She makes her first start off the claim for William Morey after she was unable to hold her form for the previous barn. Morey doesn’t have fantastic stats with new acquisitions, but this mare will be dangerous if he can get her back to some semblance of her prior form. My major concern with her is the distance, since she’s generally been better over route trips during her career. #4 Sirenic is another wild card contender. She hasn’t been seen since blowing a massive lead at this level last summer at Saratoga. She lost as the 3-5 favorite that day, and had a claim voided by the vet before going to the sidelines. The good news is that she’s taking advantage of the claiming waiver off the layoff and has plenty of back races that would make her formidable here. I think she’s a win candidate, but I wouldn’t want to take her at too short a price. This race figures to feature some pace as both #5 Guns Blazing and #6 Quality Stones possess plenty of early speed. They hooked up at this level on Feb. 21, which set things up for closing winner Shasta Star. I’m hoping a similar scenario could play out here because I’m most interested in #2 Big Al’s Gal from off the pace. It’s not a great sign that she’s dropping in for a claiming price than is half what her connections paid for her three back. However, she just hasn’t really panned out against tougher company and is probably finding a realistic spot here. She didn’t run as badly as it seems two back when trying to rally inside, and she was racing on a dead rail on Dec. 19. She does have a tendency to break slowly, but that might not be such a bad thing with some speed in this field.

WIN: #2 Big Al's Gal, at 7-1 or greater
USE: 3,4,5

RACE 8: WE READY (#6)

At first glance, #1 Motion to Strike appears to have the best overall form, and many will probably take note of the fact that he ran two of his best speed figures over wet tracks on a day that is supposed to feature plenty of rain. However, I’m a little skeptical of his performance two back when he was racing on the best part of the track. The winner also rode the rail that day and he returned to significantly regress in his next start. Motion to Strike will appreciate dropping back down to the $20k level, but I still think he’s vulnerable at a short price. The alternative that some may gravitate towards is #10 Lord Gatling, but I have serious reservations about this Turfway shipper. This is strictly a turf pedigree, as all of this dam’s foals have excelled on grass. Furthermore, watching his Turfway replays, it’s apparent that this gelding is tiny in stature. His foes just appear to tower over him in his races, and I’m skeptical that he possesses the physical strength to finish off a dirt race. My top pick is #6 We Ready. I know this 4-year-old has had more chances than many others in this field. However, I think he’s finally getting back into a realistic spot. I never understood why his connections were intent on stretching him out to a mile this winter. He’s always been better sprinting, and now he’s back at an appropriate distance. Furthermore, he’s had a few excuses, as he chased a fast pace three back, and was extremely wide going 7 furlongs two back. The Wayne Potts barn has been winning at a terrifying rate lately, so improvement could be forthcoming.

WIN: #6 We Ready, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 2,8