by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 9 - 8 - 2 - 3
Race 3: 1 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 1 - 11
Race 5: 3 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 4 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 7: 6 - 9 - 1 - 3
Race 8: 5 - 9 - 7 - 3
RACE 3: FROSTED ICE (#1)
Likely favorite O’Trouble is hardly a win machine, having won just once in 8 starts despite hitting the board in 7 of those tries. Yet, to his credit, he’s stepped up his game since breaking his maiden three starts back. He ran the best race of his career in his first start against winners on Feb. 21, making a strong late run to just miss to the superior Runningwscissors. And then last time he appeared to hang a bit in the late stages when losing by a nose, but 7 furlongs may be a little farther than his ideal trip. Now he cuts back to 6 furlongs and is drawn well outside. He’s the horse to beat but there are other options to consider. Binkster would be a serious threat in this race if able to recapture his form from last summer. However, his 2020 campaign ended on a sour note, and now he’s returning from a layoff. He has a right to rebound, but there is some other speed to deal with here. I prefer Frosted Ice. This runner’s recent form may look fairly dismal at first glance, since his only victory during the past year was earned against much weaker at Belterra Park. However, this horse did once possess real ability, as he displayed when he won the Bertram F. Bongard on this circuit as a 2-year-old. Now he’s back in New York in the barn of Michelle Nevin. They tried a mile in his first start for this barn, but that distance is just too far for him. Furthermore, he was compromised by racing wide against a rail bias that day. He’s likely in better form than that, and now he’s catching a softer field while cutting back to an appropriate distance.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,6
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 2,3,5
RACE 4: STAR DEVINE (#6)
Dovima ran reasonably well in a couple of dirt sprints last year, but there’s a strong argument that she’s a little better on grass. She just missed in her career debut to subsequent allowance winner Cost Benefit. She then was justifiably bet down to odds-on territory in her second start at Saratoga last summer. While she failed to hold on with a perfect trip, she was flattered when In Front returned to beat winners in her very next start. It’s possible that a mile is just a little too far for her, so this turnback makes plenty of sense. Chad Brown is 6 for 26 (23%, $1.85 ROI) off layoffs of 120 to 240 days in turf sprints over 5 years. I’m certainly using her, and I prefer her to main rival Candy Jar, who has faced weaker fields at Gulfstream. Yet there are other new faces to consider in this field, including a few first time starters. The Klaravich-owned Political Gridlock may attract some support, but Chad Brown has poor statistics with 3-year-old and older runners debuting in turf sprints. I’m far more interested in the Jorge Abreu first time starter Star Devine. This filly was purchased at the 2019 Tattersalls sale for $258k and is a daughter of top international sire Fastnet Rock. The dam was 1 for 3 in Europe, earning her only victory going 10 furlongs on all-weather. Notably, the dam is a half-sister to 3-time Group 1 winner (1000 Guineas, Irish Oaks, Yorkshire Oaks) Blue Bunting, so there’s pedigree for this filly to have quality on turf. Jorge Abreu is stronger with firsters on dirt, but he’s 4 for 27 (15%, $1.81 ROI) debuting in turf sprints over 5 years. The workouts down at Palm Meadows look pretty solid, and she could get somewhat overlooked on the tote board. Among the bigger prices, I would also use Tipsy Chatter. This filly has only raced on dirt thus far, but she’s out of a turf winner and is a half-sister to multiple turf winner and synthetic stakes winner Caravel.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,4,11
RACE 7: TOO SEXY (#6)
Love and Thunder figures to go favored here as she makes her U.S. debut for Chad Brown. This John and Tanya Gunther-owned runner showed some promise competing in Europe as a younger horse, but her last couple of results against Group 3 company were disappointing. That said, she did have a legitimate excuse her in her most recent start at Ascot. While she was never winning that race, she did have to steady and lose momentum just over a furlong from home when trying to rally up the rail. Now she resurfaces in the barn of Chad Brown, who is an expert with these types of runners. However, he elects to start her in a turf sprint, which is somewhat curious. He’s just 2 for 10 (20%, $1.41 ROI) with foreign shippers in turf sprints over 5 years. She has been working very forwardly on the dirt down at Palm Meadows, almost to the point that she’s too aggressive. Brown usually works his horses in company, but most of this filly’s drills have been solo due to her headstrong nature when working as a pair. She can obviously beat this field if she returns in top form and all signs point to her doing so. I just worry a little about the distance and her trip, especially if she has to rate. I prefer recent maiden winner Too Sexy. This Christophe Clement trainee started out her career at a mile, but showed a tendency to flatten out at the end of those races. I had written last year that I wanted to see her turned back in distance, and she’s gradually improved as the distances have gotten shorter in recent starts. She displayed a nice late kick to get up and finally break her maiden last time at Gulfstream with a strong 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She wouldn’t need to improve much on that number to beat this field, and I’m not too concerned about the slight stretch-out to 6 furlongs. I just trust her a little more than the favorite, and she’s going to be a more generous price.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,9
Trifecta: 6,9 with 6,9 with 1,3,4